带接种疫苗和二次感染的年龄结构MSEIR流行病模型分析

本文讨论带二次感染和接种疫苗的年龄结构MSEIR流行病模型。在常数人口规模的假设下,运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到一个与接种疫苗策略ψ有关的再生数R(ψ)的表达式,证明了当R(ψ)<1时,无病平衡态是局部渐近稳定的;当R(ψ)>1时,无病平衡态是不稳定的,此时存在一个地方病平衡态,并且证明当R(0)<1时,无病平衡态是全局渐近稳定的。     

潜伏期和染病期均具有康复的年龄结构MSEIS流行病模型的稳定性

本文建立和研究了潜伏期和染病期均具有康复的年龄结构MSEIS流行病模型.在总人口规模不变的假设下,得到了决定疾病消亡与否的基本再生数R0的表达式,证明了当R0＜1时,无病平衡点是局部和全局渐近稳定的,此时疾病消失;当R0＞1时,无病平衡点不稳定,此时系统至少存在一个地方病平衡点,并在一定条件下证明了地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性.     

具有预防接种免疫力的双线性传染率SIR流行病模型全局稳定性

研究一类具有预防接种免疫力的双线性传染率 SIR流行病模型全局稳定性 ,找到了决定疾病灭绝和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数 R0 .当 R0 ≤ 1时 ,仅存在无病平衡态 E0 ;当 R0 >1时 ,存在唯一的地方病平衡态 E* 和无病平衡态 E0 .利用 Hurwitz判据及 Liapunov-Lasalle不变集原理可以得知 :当 R0 <1时 ,无病平衡态 E0 全局渐近稳定 ;当 R0 >1时 ,地方病平衡态 E*全局渐近稳定 ,无病平衡态 E0 不稳定 ;当 R0 =1时 ,计算机数值模拟结果显示 ,无病平衡态 E0 有可能是稳定的     

具有潜伏年龄和隔离的SEIQ流行病模型的稳定性

建立和研究了具潜伏带年龄和隔离的SEIQ流行病模型.运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到基本再生数R0的表达式,证明了当R0<1时,存在全局渐近稳定的无病平衡点,当R0>1时,无病平衡点不稳定,此时存在局部渐近稳定的地方病平衡点.     

潜伏期具有传染性的年龄结构MSEIS流行病模型的稳定性

本文讨论了潜伏期和染病期均具有传染性的年龄结构MSEIS流行病模型.在总人口规模不变的假设下,运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到了基本再生数 0的表达式,证明了当 0 <1时,无病平衡点是局部和全局渐近稳定的,此时疾病消亡.当 0 >1时,无病平衡点不稳定,此时系统至少存在一个地方病平衡点,并在一定条件下证明了该地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性.     

一类具有接种疫苗的年龄结构传染病模型分析

建立和研究了一类具有接种疫苗的年龄结构SVWIR传染病模型.在总人口规模不变的条件下,运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到与接种疫苗策略Ψ有关的基本再生数R(Ψ)的表达式,证明了当R(Ψ)1时,无病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的;当R(0)1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,此时疾病消亡;当R(Ψ)1时,无病平衡点是不稳定的,此时系统存在地方病平衡点.     

年龄结构乙肝传染病模型及稳定性

本文讨论一年龄结构乙肝传染病模型,得出基本再生数■的表达式,证明:当■1时,无病平衡态局部渐近稳定且全局渐近稳定;当■ 1时,存在唯一的地方病平衡态,并给出地方病平衡态的局部渐近稳定性条件,这些条件对于控制疾病的传播具有重要的理论及实际意义.     

年龄结构SIQR传染病模型及稳定性

讨论了年龄结构SIQR传染病模型,得出基本再生数R_0和接种再生数R(ψ)的表达式,证明了当R(ψ)1时,无病平衡点局部渐近稳定;当R_01时,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定;当R(ψ)1时,无病平衡点不稳定,此时存在唯一的地方病平衡点,并给出了地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性条件,这些条件对于控制疾病的传播具有重要的理论及实际意义,同时用再生数的表达式进一步解释了接种和隔离治疗在控制消除传染病中的作用.     

具有染病年龄结构的SEIR流行病模型的稳定性

建立和研究了一类具有染病年龄结构的SEIR流行病模型.得到了该模型的基本再生数R0的表达式.证明了当R0<1时,无病平衡点E0不仅局部渐近稳定,而且全局吸引;当R0>1时,无病平衡点E0不稳定,此时存在稳定的地方病平衡点.     

一类有迁移的SIS流行病模型

研究一类种群有迁移的流行病模型,得到了这类模型的基本再生数R0,证明了R0＜1无病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的,而当R0＞1时无病平衡点是不稳定的.进一步讨论了疾病持续存在与无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局稳定的条件.     

Dynamic behavior of a delay cholera model with constant infectious period

In this paper, a delay cholera model with constant infectious period is investigated. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of the model is established. It is proved that if the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}_0>1$, the system is permanent. If $\mathcal{R}_0<1$, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. If $\mathcal{R}_0>1$, also by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results.     

Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of an Epidemic Model with Quarantine, Latent and Media Coverage

Epidemic models are very important in today''s analysis of diseases. In this paper, we propose and analyze an epidemic model incorporating quarantine, latent, media coverage and time delay. We analyze the local stability of either the disease-free and endemic equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ as a threshold parameter. We prove that if $\mathcal{R}_{0}<1,$ the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and if $\mathcal{R}_{0}>1$, the model has at least one positive endemic equilibrium, the stability will be affected by the time delay and some conditions for Hopf bifurcation around infected equilibrium to occur are obtained by using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter. We illustrate our results by some numerical simulations such that we show that a proper application of quarantine plays a critical role in the clearance of the disease, and therefore a direct contact between people plays a critical role in the transmission of the disease.     

一类具有Logistic增长和病程的SIR模型

研究具有Logistic增长和病程的SIR流行病模型.运用微分、积分方程理论,得到再生数R0<1时,无病平衡点E0是全局渐近稳定的;而当R0>1时,地方病平衡点E*是局部渐近稳定的.     

The dynamic behavior of deterministic and stochastic delayed SIQS model

In this paper, we present the deterministic and stochastic delayed SIQS epidemic models. For the deterministic model, the basic reproductive number $R_{0}$ is given. Moreover, when $R_{0}<1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotical stable. When $R_{0}>1$ and additional conditions hold, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotical stable. For the stochastic model, a sharp threshold $\overset{\wedge }{R}_{0}$ which determines the extinction or persistence in the mean of the disease is presented. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic are established. Numerical simulations are also conducted in the analytic results.     

一类具有时滞和接种疫苗年龄的SIS模型

研究具有时滞和接种疫苗年龄的SIS流行病模型.运用微分、积分方程理论,得到再生数R(ψ)<1,且γτ1时,地方病平衡点E*的存在性.     

具有Logistic增长和年龄结构的SIS模型

讨论具有Logistic增长和年龄结构的SIS流行病模型.运用微分、积分方程理论,得到了当再生数R0<1时,无病平衡点E0是全局渐近稳定的;当R0>1时,地方病平衡点E*是局部渐近稳定的.     

Assessing the impact of the environmental contamination on the transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD)

This paper deals with the following biological question: how influential is the environmental contamination on the transmission of EVD? Based on the works in (Bibby et al., Environ Sci Technol Lett 2:2–6, 2015; Leroy et al., Nature 438: 575–576, 2005; World Health Organization. Unprecedented number of medical staff infected with Ebola), we design a new mathematical model to address this question by assessing the effect of the Ebola virus contaminated environment on the dynamical transmission of EVD. The formulated model captures two infection pathways through both direct human-to-human transmission and indirect human-to-environment-to-human transmission by incorporating the environment as a transition and/or reservoir of Ebola viruses. We compute the basic reproduction number \({\mathcal {R}}^{env}_0\) for the model with environmental contamination and prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) whenever \({\mathcal {R}}^{env}_0 \le 1\). When \({\mathcal {R}}^{env}_0 > 1\), we show that the said model has a unique endemic equilibrium which is GAS. Similar results hold for the free environmental contamination sub-model (without the incorporation of the indirect transmission). More precisely, for the latter model, calculate the corresponding basic reproduction number \({\mathcal {R}}^{h}_0\) and establish the GAS of the disease-free and endemic equilibria, whenever \({\mathcal {R}}^{h}_0 \le 1\) and \({\mathcal {R}}^{h}_0 > 1\), respectively. At the endemic level, we show that the number of infected individuals for the full model with the environmental contamination is greater than the corresponding number for the free environmental contamination sub-model. In conjunction with the inequality \({\mathcal {R}}^{h}_0 < {\mathcal {R}}^{env}_0\), our finding suggests a negative answer to the biological question under investigation, i.e. the contaminated environment plays a detrimental role on the transmission dynamics of EVD by increasing the endemic level and/or the severity of the outbreak. Therefore, it is natural to implement a control strategy which aim at reducing the severity of the disease by providing adequate hygienic living conditions, educate populations at risk to follow rigorously those basic hygienic conditions as well as ask them avoid contact with suspected contaminated objects. Further, we perform numerical simulations to support the theory.