信用传染违约Aalen加性风险模型

本文考虑了基于加性风险模型的信用风险违约预报模型,不但考虑了宏观因素和公司个体因素,并且通过引入行业因素来刻画公司间可能存在的不同于宏观因素的信用传染效应,由此克服了以往模型对违约相关性的低估.本文在参数加性风险模型下给出极大似然估计及渐近性,提出两种估计方法并比较二者表现,得到最优权估计更加有效.同时本文还考虑了半参数的风险模型,并基于鞅的估计方程得到其估计及渐近性,均得到不错的结果.     

左截断右删失数据下半参数模型风险率函数估计

文章给出了右删失左截断数据半参数模型下的风险率函数估计,讨论了风险率函数估计的渐近性质,获得了这些估计的渐近正态性,对数律和重对数律.由于假定删失机制服从半参数模型下,从而知道模型的更多信息,因此对于给出参数的极大似然估计,可以改进风险率函数估计的渐近性质.也就是说,删失数据模型具有半参数的辅助信息下, 风险率函数估计的渐近方差比通常的完全非参数的估计的渐近方差更小.这说明加入了额外的信息提高了风险率函数估计的效率.     

纵向数据部分线性测量误差模型的二次推断函数估计

基于纵向数据部分线性测量误差模型, 研究了模型中兴趣参数部分回归系数的估计问题. 首先采用B样条方法逼近模型中的非参数函数, 然后提出修正的二次推断函数(QIF)方法对模型中参数部分的回归系数进行估计, 所提方法可以提高估计的效率. 在一定的正则条件下, 证明了所得到的估计量具有相合性和渐近正态性. 最后, 通过模拟研究和实例分析验证了所提出估计方法的有限大样本性质.     

长度偏差右删失数据下均值剩余寿命的复合估计

长度偏差右删失数据是一类复杂的数据,观察到的数据分布与总体分布有所改变且其删失是有信息删失,通常的统计分析方法并不能直接应用到长度偏差数据中.本文将在长度偏差右删失数据下研究均值剩余寿命函数,提出其非参数估计方法,在估计中通过加入长度偏差右删失数据辅助信息,即截断变量和进入试验后的剩余存活时间同分布的辅助信息来提高估计的效率.虽然极大似然方法是有效估计,但是其构造复杂且计算需要迭代来实现,计算量大.为此,本文考虑通过简单的加入辅助信息的方法来构造估计量,并给出估计量的相合性及渐近正态性.本文提出的加入辅助信息估计方法与以往类似方法相比具有较简单的显式表达式,计算方便.     

带有污染协变量和辅助生存信息的Cox模型的改进估计方法研究

在流行病学、生物医学和临床试验等领域的研究中, Cox模型是最受欢迎的半参数回归模型之一.在建模过程中,观测到的协变量通常是被污染的,污染因子可测,但是污染函数未知,直接使用被污染的协变量进行参数估计,可能会造成错误的统计推断.研究者往往发现疾病治疗的最佳时刻点,如果忽略这些辅助生存信息,可能导致估计效率的降低.本文研究带有污染协变量和辅助生存信息的Cox模型的一种改进估计,通过核平滑方法校准受污染的协变量,并通过分组提取辅助生存信息用于参数估计,然后使用广义矩估计方法解决超维方程组求解的问题.模拟分析和实证研究结果表明:基于协变量校准后的Cox模型的广义矩估计方法比偏似然估计方法、协变量未调整的Cox模型的广义矩估计方法的效果更好.     

带有辅助信息的多元失效时间数据的估计标准部分似然方法

在许多实际研究中, 由于预算限制, 主协变量值只能对某一个有效集进行准确测量, 但同时对应此主协变量的辅助信息则对全部个体均可以观测. 利用这些辅助协变量的信息有助于提高统计研究的效率. 本文在基于共同基准危险率的边际模型框架下, 我们提出了一些统计推断方法来分析多元失效时间数据. 对于回归参数, 我们提出标准的估计部分似然方程来估计它, 同时也给出了累积基准危险率函数的Breslow 型估计. 得到的估计可以证明是相合的和渐近正态的. 利用模拟分析结果来表明了提出的方法在有限样本下的可行性.     

半参数混合效应模型中的估计及其强相合性

将Tao等(1999)提出的线性混合效应模型推广为半参数混合效应模型,给出了模型参数、回归函数和随机效应密度的估计,并研究了估计的强相合性及部分强相合速度.统计模拟表明我们给出的估计方法是可行的.     

函数型部分线性乘积模型的B-样条估计

本文研究了函数型部分线性乘积模型,该模型可用于响应变量为正数的函数型数据的统计建模问题,经过对数变换后模型转化为函数型部分线性模型.基于B-样条,通过极小化最小一乘相对误差(LARE)和最小乘积相对误差(LPRE),分别给出模型的LARE估计和LPRE估计,其中B-样条基的维数利用Schwarz信息准则选取.对两种估计方法分别给出斜率函数估计的相合性和参数部分估计的渐近正态性,并且证明了斜率函数的收敛率达到了非参数函数估计的最优速率.蒙特卡洛模拟用来比较所提出的方法与最小一乘(LAD)估计和最小二乘(LS)估计在不同误差分布下的有限样本性质,模拟结果表明所提方法是有效和实用的.最后通过一个实际数据分析的例子来说明模型的应用.     

缺失数据下线性EV模型的参数估计

给出EV模型下数据具有随机缺失时,模型参数的一种估计方法,并以一个简单模型为例给出了这种新估计的渐近正态性的具体结果.模拟研究表明,即使在有限样本情形,提出的方法在估计效率上也具有一定优势.     

带辅助协变量的相关失效时间数据的加权估计伪部分似然方法

本文在不同基准风险边际模型下考虑带辅助协变量的相关失效时间数据的统计推断.假设感兴趣的主协变量仅在全研究队列的一个子集中是精确测量的,而主协变量的辅助协变量则对研究队列的全部个体均可获得.首先利用辅助信息经验地估计相对风险函数,然后提出一种加权估计伪部分似然(weighted estimated pseudo-partial likelihood, WEPPL)方法求边际风险率参数的估计.本文在辅助协变量为分类变量的情形下建立WEPPL估计的渐近性质.相应估计被证明是相合的和渐近正态的.本文通过模拟研究评估提出的估计在有限样本下的表现.结果显示提出的加权估计在效率上要优于未加权的估计,特别是当失效时间之间相关性较强的时候.     

利用分层抽样数据中完全辅助信息的模型校正方法

In stratified survey sampling, sometimes we have complete auxiliary information. One of the fundamental questions is how to effectively use the complete auxiliary information at the estimation stage. In this paper, we extend the model-calibration method to obtain estimators of the finite population mean by using complete auxiliary information from stratified sampling survey data. We show that the resulting estimators effectively use auxiliary information at the estimation stage and possess a number of attractive features such as asymptotically design-unbiased irrespective of the working model and approximately model-unbiased under the model. When a linear working-model is used, the resulting estimators reduce to the usual calibration estimator(or GREG).     

基于轮换样本连续性调查的校准组合估计方法研究

校准估计是抽样调查中比较常用的一种利用辅助信息提高估计量精度的方法。回归组合估计量作为轮换样本连续性调查中使用的一种有效的估计量,是可以通过校准程序得到的。基于回归组合估计量和校准程序之间的关系,本文提出了轮换样本连续性抽样调查条件下的不同校准组合估计量及其方差估计。校准组合估计量的主要思想是在校准估计程序中将拼配样本和非拼配样本的辅助信息进行不同的组合利用。本文利用美国现时人口调查的微观数据进行数值模拟,来比较不同校准组合估计量的估计效率,模拟结果表明两步校准组合估计量和两步校准双组合估计量的表现相似,且估计精度都高于H-T估计量及回归组合估计量;而两步校准组合估计量由于其简便性更适合应用于实践中。最后以我国农村住户连续性抽样调查为例,设计一套符合我国实际的轮换样本连续性调查方案,并将提出的校准组合估计量运用于估计阶段,为中国政府统计调查提供一定的借鉴和参考.     

Combining conditional and unconditional moment restrictions with missing responses

Many statistical models, e.g. regression models, can be viewed as conditional moment restrictions when distributional assumptions on the error term are not assumed. For such models, several estimators that achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound have been proposed. However, in many studies, auxiliary information is available as unconditional moment restrictions. Meanwhile, we also consider the presence of missing responses. We propose the combined empirical likelihood (CEL) estimator to incorporate such auxiliary information to improve the estimation efficiency of the conditional moment restriction models. We show that, when assuming responses are strongly ignorable missing at random, the CEL estimator achieves better efficiency than the previous estimators due to utilization of the auxiliary information. Based on the asymptotic property of the CEL estimator, we also develop Wilks’ type tests and corresponding confidence regions for the model parameter and the mean response. Since kernel smoothing is used, the CEL method may have difficulty for problems with high dimensional covariates. In such situations, we propose an instrumental variable-based empirical likelihood (IVEL) method to handle this problem. The merit of the CEL and IVEL are further illustrated through simulation studies.     

Estimating population proportions in the presence of missing data

This paper discusses the estimation of a population proportion in the presence of missing data and using auxiliary information at the estimation stage. A general class of estimators, which make efficient use of the available information, are proposed. Some theoretical properties of the proposed estimators are analyzed, and they allow us to find the optimal value for the proposed class in the sense of minimal variance. The optimal estimator is thus more efficient than the customary estimator. Results derived from a simulation study indicate that the proposed optimal estimator gives desirable results in comparison to alternative estimators.     

An efficient risk estimator with external information under additive hazards model

Rare event data is encountered when the events of interest occur with low frequency, and the estimators based on the cohort data only may be inefficient. However, when external information is available for the estimation, the estimators utilizing external information can be more efficient. In this paper, we propose a method to incorporate external information into the estimation of the baseline hazard function and improve efficiency for estimating the absolute risk under the additive hazards model. The resulting estimators are shown to be uniformly consistent and converge weakly to Gaussian processes. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method is much more efficient. An application to a bone marrow transplant data set is provided.     

Generalized Calibration Approach for Estimating Variance in Survey Sampling

In the present investigation, a general set-up for inference from survey data that covers the estimation of variance of estimators of totals and distribution functions has been considered, using known higher order moments of auxiliary information at the estimation stage. Several estimators of variance of estimators of totals and distribution functions are shown to be the special cases of the proposed strategy. An empirical study has also been given to show the performance of the proposed estimators over the existing estimators in the literature.     

Distribution estimation with smoothed auxiliary information

Distribution estimation is very important in order to make statistical inference for parameters or its functions based on this distribution.In this work we propose an estimator of the distribution of some variable with non-smooth auxiliary information,for example,a symmetric distribution of this variable.A smoothing technique is employed to handle the non-differentiable function.Hence,a distribution can be estimated based on smoothed auxiliary information.Asymptotic properties of the distribution estimator are derived and analyzed.The distribution estimators based on our method are found to be significantly efficient than the corresponding estimators without these auxiliary information.Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators.     

Quasi-likelihood estimation of average treatment effects based on model information

In this paper, the estimation of average treatment effects is considered when we have the model information of the conditional mean and conditional variance for the responses given the covariates. The quasi-likelihood method adapted to treatment effects data is developed to estimate the parameters in the conditional mean and conditional variance models. Based on the model information, we define three estimators by imputation, regression and inverse probability weighted methods. All the estimators are shown asymptotically normal. Our simulation results show that by using the model information, the substantial efficiency gains are obtained which are comparable with the existing estimators.     

Efficient parameter estimation via modified Cholesky decomposition for quantile regression with longitudinal data

It is well known that specifying a covariance matrix is difficult in the quantile regression with longitudinal data. This paper develops a two step estimation procedure to improve estimation efficiency based on the modified Cholesky decomposition. Specifically, in the first step, we obtain the initial estimators of regression coefficients by ignoring the possible correlations between repeated measures. Then, we apply the modified Cholesky decomposition to construct the covariance models and obtain the estimator of within-subject covariance matrix. In the second step, we construct unbiased estimating functions to obtain more efficient estimators of regression coefficients. However, the proposed estimating functions are discrete and non-convex. We utilize the induced smoothing method to achieve the fast and accurate estimates of parameters and their asymptotic covariance. Under some regularity conditions, we establish the asymptotically normal distributions for the resulting estimators. Simulation studies and the longitudinal progesterone data analysis show that the proposed approach yields highly efficient estimators.     

Nonparametric additive model-assisted estimation for survey data

An additive model-assisted nonparametric method is investigated to estimate the finite population totals of massive survey data with the aid of auxiliary information. A class of estimators is proposed to improve the precision of the well known Horvitz-Thompson estimators by combining the spline and local polynomial smoothing methods. These estimators are calibrated, asymptotically design-unbiased, consistent, normal and robust in the sense of asymptotically attaining the Godambe-Joshi lower bound to the anticipated variance. A consistent model selection procedure is further developed to select the significant auxiliary variables. The proposed method is sufficiently fast to analyze large survey data of high dimension within seconds. The performance of the proposed method is assessed empirically via simulation studies.