一类带Lévy跳的随机SIRS传染病模型的渐近性分析北大核心CSCD

研究了一类带有随机白噪声干扰及Lévy跳的SIRS型传染病模型.首先利用停时等方法证明了模型全局解的存在性和唯一性,然后得到了染病种群趋于灭绝及依平均持久的充分条件,最后对结果进行了数值模拟.     

随机的改进Lotka-Volterra竞争模型

本文提出且讨论了一类两种群随机的改进Lotka Volterra竞争模型.白噪声及有色噪声都在本文中被考虑.我们得到了全局唯一正解、随机有界性、随机持久和随机灭绝等种群动力性质的充分条件.     

一类具有时滞的随机SIS传染病模型

本文研究一类具有时滞的随机SIS传染病模型,并定性分析种群灭绝和持久的充分条件.获得了阈值R_0,当R_01时,种群灭绝.当R_01时,种群持久.并通过了数值模拟验证了上述理论结果.     

一类具有马尔可夫转换和不同功能反应的随机捕食模型的动力学分析

构建了一类捕食者相互竞争且具有不同功能反应的随机种群模型.综合考虑白噪声和电噪声的扰动对模型的影响,研究了系统的动力学行为.运用切比雪夫不等式,讨论了系统的有界性.构造恰当的李雅普诺夫函数并运用It8公式,得到了系统随机持久和灭绝的条件.最后,利用指数鞅不等式等技巧,研究了系统的渐近性.     

一类具有常数输入的随机SIR流行病模型的定性分析

研究了一类易感者和恢复者具有常数输入的随机SIR传染病模型.利用停时理论及Lyapunov分析方法,证明了该随机模型正解的全局存在唯一性和有界性,讨论了随机模型的解在相应确定模型的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点附近的振荡行为以及得到了随机模型的解的平均持久和疾病灭绝的充分条件.最后,通过数值模拟验证和理论推导的一致性.     

混合随机SIR传染病模型的动力学分析

研究一类具有一般发病率函数的混合随机SIR传染病模型.首先,通过构造适当的Lyapunov函数,证明了模型全局正解的存在唯一性.然后,利用随机分析方法,建立了系统灭绝与持久的充分且几乎必要条件和遍历平稳分布的存在性.最后,通过数值模拟来验证理论结果.     

一类具有时滞和两种疾病并行传播的随机SIR模型研究

本文提出一类具有时滞和两种疾病并行传播的随机SIR传染病模型. 首先证明系统全局正解的存在唯一性. 进而通过理论分析分别获得两种疾病同时绝灭、仅一种绝灭以及两者都持久的条件. 最后我们针对不同的噪声干扰强度进行了一系列的数值模拟.     

一类具潜伏期和隔离的肺结核模型分析

研究了一类具潜伏和积分时滞的肺结核模型,在模型中考虑了隔离和脉冲接种,运用脉冲时滞泛函微分方程理论,得到了传染病灭绝和系统持久的充分条件.     

带有隔离的COVID-19随机SQIR模型研究

本文考虑一类受环境噪声影响,带有隔离的COVID-19随机SQIR传染病模型.通过构造Lyapunov函数并利用It?公式,证明全局正解的存在唯一性;得到决定疾病灭绝、持久和遍历平稳分布的充分条件.结果表明:环境变化在一定条件下会对疾病起抑制作用.最后,通过数值模拟来验证理论结果的正确性.     

基于媒体报道下的一类SIRS传染病模型研究

本文主要研究了基于媒体报道下的一类SIRS传染病模型的持久与灭绝问题.利用一个控制疾病持久与灭绝的临界值R_0,求得了该模型存在两个平衡点:无病平衡点和地方病平衡点.结果表明当R_0≤1时,无病平衡点呈全局渐进稳定,这表示疾病是灭绝的;而当R_0 1时,地方病平衡点呈全局渐进稳定,这说明疾病是持久的.最后通过数值分析验证了该结论.     

Dynamics of a stochastic SIR model with both horizontal and vertical transmission

A stochastic mathematical model with both horizontal and vertical transmission is proposed to investigate the dynamical behavior of SIR disease. By employing theories of stochastic differential equation and inequality techniques, the threshold associating on extinction and persistence of infectious diseases is deduced for the case of the small noise. Our results show that the threshold completely depends on the stochastic perturbation and the basic reproductive number of the corresponding deterministic model. Moreover, we find that large noise is conducive to control the spread of diseases and the persistent disease in deterministic model may eliminate ultimately due to the effect of large noise. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Optimal strategy of vaccination and treatment in an SIRS model with Markovian switching

Medical treatment and vaccination decisions are often sequential and uncertain. Markov decision process is an appropriate means to model and handle such stochastic dynamic decisions. This paper studies the near‐optimality of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model that incorporates vaccination and saturated treatment with regime switching. The stochastic model takes white noises and color noise into account. We first prove some priori estimates of the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations. Moreover, we establish some sufficient and necessary conditions of the near‐optimality by Pontryagin stochastic maximum principle. Our results show that the two kinds of environmental noises have great impacts on the infectious diseases. Finally, we illustrate our conclusions through numerical simulations.     

Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic one-prey two-predator model with Holling type II functional response

In this article, we investigate a stochastic one-prey two-predator model with Holling type II functional response. We first establish sufficient conditions for persistence and extinction of prey and predator populations, then by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sharp sufficient criteria for the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions to the model. The results show that the smaller white noise can ensure the persistence of prey and predator populations while the larger white noise can lead to the extinction of prey and predator populations.     

噪声激励下水平扫视眼动系统的随机分岔

研究了眼动系统在神经噪声作用下的随机分岔现象.首先,基于水平眼动系统模型,用加性的Gauss(高斯)白噪声模拟神经系统中的噪声,建立眼动系统的随机动力学模型.其次,利用数值算法得到眼球运动位移的Poincaré分岔图和系统在不同参数下的位移和速度的稳态联合概率密度以及位移的稳态概率密度.研究发现:噪声强度和抑制性神经元的作用强度都能诱导产生随机P分岔现象,使得位移的稳态概率密度出现峰的个数从1到3的转换,间歇性眼球震颤产生.此外,还发现当抑制性神经元的作用强度增大到一定值时,稳态概率密度始终呈现单峰结构.该结论对此类疾病的治疗有一定的指导作用.     

基于Kolmogorov前向方程评估甲型H1N1流感疫情的动态变化北大核心CSCD

基于个体水平的传染病模型可以揭示随机性在传染病疫情防控中的重要作用.研究此类模型的普遍方法是通过事件驱动的、大量重复的随机模拟来确定预测变量的范围.而基于Kolmogorov前向方程(KFE)研究个体水平的传染病模型,不仅不需要大量的重复模拟来确定预测变量的范围,而且可以同时考虑每种状态发生的概率.因此,基于2009年西安市第八医院甲型H1N1流感数据,建立了基于社交网络的个体决策心理模型,以确定行为改变率;进一步地,为得到传染病传播过程中各状态的概率分布,基于改进的个体SIR模型,通过Markov过程推导出KFE.结果表明:通过数值求解KFE可以得到整个爆发过程中每种状态发生的概率分布、最严重的时间段及相应的概率,从而能更快、更准确地了解甲型H1N1疫情的传播过程,因此有助于高效地进行甲型H1N1疫情防控.     

Effects of population density on the spread of disease

The effect of population density on the epidemic outbreak of measles or measles-like infectious diseases was evaluated. Using average-number contacts with susceptible individuals per infectious individual as a measure of population density, an analytical model for the distribution of the nonstationary stochastic process of susceptible contact is presented. A 5-dimensional lattice simulation model of disease spread was used to evaluate the effects of four different population densities. A zero-inflated Poisson probability model was used to quantify the nonstationarity of the contact rate in the stochastic epidemic process. Analysis of the simulation results identified a decrease in a susceptible contact rate from four to three, resulted in a dramatic effect on the distribution of contacts over time, the magnitude of the outbreak, and, ultimately, the spread of disease. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A network modelling approach for assessing the efficiency of prevention strategies

Survey data and a simulation model based on a stochastic pair formation process are used to construct networks of sexual contacts. We model heterosexual partnerships which can be steady or casual depending on their average duration. Transmission of an infectious disease can take place in pairs of a susceptible and an infected individual. We study networks of sexual contacts accumulated during 1 year for different types of mixing patterns. The networks are constructed on the basis of data from a survey in The Netherlands. We analyze the network structure for different mixing patterns and investigate the relationship between network structure and disease spread; furthermore we study the effect of prevention measures on the structure of the network.     

Stochastic Modeling and Convergence Analysis of Internet Routers北大核心CSCD

目前建立的路由收敛模型大部分都是确定性模型,而路由器在收敛过程中存在丢包、链路噪声、互连拓扑结构突变等现象。针对这些随机问题,该文引入Bernoulli白序列分布、Wiener过程、Markov过程,提出了一种新的随机动力系统模型,应用随机微分方程理论和随机分析方法得出其路由收敛的充分条件,结果证明,随机环境下路由状态收敛与路由器连接拓扑的Laplace矩阵、Markov切换的平稳分布、网络中数据包的成功传输率以及噪声强度息息相关。最后通过一个数值实例验证了相关结论的有效性。     

Global properties of a two-scale network stochastic delayed human epidemic dynamic model

Complex population structure and the large-scale inter-patch connection human transportation underlie the recent rapid spread of infectious diseases of humans. Furthermore, the fluctuations in the endemicity of the diseases within patch dwelling populations are closely related with the hereditary features of the infectious agent. We present an SIR delayed stochastic dynamic epidemic process in a two-scale dynamic structured population. The disease confers temporary natural or infection-acquired immunity to recovered individuals. The time delay accounts for the time-lag during which naturally immune individuals become susceptible. We investigate the stochastic asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium of the scale structured mobile population, under environmental fluctuations and the impact on the emergence, propagation and resurgence of the disease. The presented results are demonstrated by numerical simulation results.     

Global dynamics analysis of a nonlinear impulsive stochastic chemostat system in a polluted environment

This paper intends to develop a new method to obtain the threshold of an impulsive stochastic chemostat model with saturated growth rate in a polluted environment. By using the theory of impulsive differential equations and stochastic differential equations, we obtain conditions for the extinction and the permanence of the microorganisms of the deterministic chemostat model and the stochastic chemostat model. We develop a new numerical computation method for impulsive stochastic differential system to simulate and illustrate our theoretical conclusions. The biological results show that a small stochastic disturbance can cause the microorganism to die out, that is, a permanent deterministic system can go to extinction under the white noise stochastic disturbance. The theoretical method can also be used to explore the threshold of some impulsive stochastic differential equations.