基于最大熵和最小交叉熵方法的上证50ETF期权定价

基于最大熵方法和最小交叉熵方法,给出了根据期权价格推断标的资产价格分布的模型和已知先验信息下推断标的资产价格分布的模型,利用拉格朗日乘子法给出了模型的简化解,通过粒子群算法求出标的资产价格的密度函数,进而对上证50ETF期权进行定价比较.实证结果表明:基于最大熵方法推断的分布可以作为标的资产价格分布的较好估计;基于最小交叉熵方法推断的分布是在先验信息下标的资产价格分布的较好估计,两种方法适用于我国上证50ETF期权定价.     

期权定价的最大熵方法

以欧式期权为例,用标的资产(如股票风险资产)和无风险资产复制期权,并用自融资无套利原理分析金融市场的资产价值变化情况.在此基础上,通过最大熵原理来求得资产组合中每个资产所占的比重,进而得出期权定价模型,由于最大熵原理所求得概率分布是目前所知求概率分布方法中最客观、无偏的,所以求得的新模型不受金融市场类型和标的资产价格分布的限制,具有较强的客观、无偏、可预测性.通过对期权的常用算例计算,发现新模型比B-S模型以及一些其它熵期权定价模型有更准确的标的资产价格分布、更低的回溯测试误差.     

求解指数效用函数的叉熵方法

本文提出了一种计算指数效用函数的最小叉熵方法.该方法以Buhlmann的经济均衡模型为基础,根据最小叉熵原理得到风险的均衡价格密度,并将这个密度函数应用到Buhlmann的效用函数理论中, 证明了当市场达到均衡状态时的效用函数为指数效用函数.该方法意义明确,形式清晰.     

基于GARCH-GH模型的上证50ETF期权定价研究

上证50ETF期权是中国推出的首支股票期权.为描述上证50ETF收益率偏态、尖峰、时变波动率等特征,结合GARCH模型和广义双曲(Generalized Hyperbolic,GH)分布两方面的优势,建立GARCH-GH模型为上证50ETF期权定价.在等价鞅测度下,利用蒙特卡罗方法估计上证50ETF欧式认购期权价格.实证表明,相比较Black-Scholes模型和GARCH-Gaussian模型,GARCH-GH模型得到的结果更接近于上证50ETF期权的实际价格,其定价误差最小.     

最小叉熵优化模型在保险定价中的应用研究

为了更加合理解决保险定价问题，本文引入金融风险中性定价思想，提出新的保险定价方法。在不完全的保险市场，利用信息论领域中推测概率分布的最小叉熵优化模型，对经验损失分布进行调整，得到保险风险中性最小叉熵密度，进而确定新的保费。结果表明最小叉熵密度使高风险的比例增大，这体现了风险中性的本质。该保险定价方法的形式是确定的，且所建的最小叉熵优化模型具有灵活、简便的特性。     

CEV跳-扩散模型中期权定价研究

考虑了CEV与Kou双指数跳-扩散组合模型中的期权定价问题.首先,运用Ito公式和期权定价的无套利原理,得到了模型下期权价格所满足的偏积-微分方程.然后,运用中心差分和Lagrange线性插值,分别对偏积-微分方程中的微分项和积分项进行离散化处理,再由Euler法,最终得了偏积-微分方程的有限差分格式,并且对差分方法的误差和收敛性进行了分析.最后数值实验验证了该算法是一个稳定且收敛的算法.     

非线性Black-Scholes模型下障碍期权定

研究了原生资产价格遵循非线性Black-Scholes模型时障碍期权的定价问题.首先,根据混合分数布朗运动的Ito公式和金融市场的复制策略,得到了障碍期权适合的抛物初边值问题.其次,利用扰动理论中单参数摄动展开方法,给出了障碍期权的近似定价公式.最后,利用Feyman-Kac公式分析了近似定价公式的误差估计问题,结果表明近似解一致收敛于相应期权价格的精确解.     

考虑公司信息披露情绪的欧式脆弱期权定价

从公司信息披露的角度来看,定量数据直观地反映了公司的经营和财务状况,而描述性的非结构文本信息是对定量数据的有效补充。本文从公司年报中挖掘信用违约文本信息,构建语调变量情绪指标,以调控脆弱期权的违约临界值,改进经典的Klein欧式脆弱期权定价模型。研究表明:随着语调变量指标的增大,欧式看涨看跌期权价格呈递减趋势,且指标越接近1,期权价格递减速度越快,说明期权价格对负向情绪更加敏感,符合金融市场实际情况。此外,应用研究发现不考虑情绪指标的Klein模型倾向于低估期权价格,考虑公司信息披露情绪的脆弱期权定价模型能更准确地分析财务困境对信用风险的影响,结果更贴近实际情况。     

Markov调制Lévy模型定价的Fourier-Cos方法

对一般的Markov调制Lévy模型,利用Fourier Cosine级数展开原理得到欧式期权价格的计算方法.进一步,为了改进期权定价的Fourier Cosine级数展开方法的计算精度,Fourier Cosine级数展开的对象进行了修正,获得了欧式期权价格的修正Fourier Cosine级数展开计算方法.此外,还将获得的方法应用于Markov调制Black-Scholes模型,Markov调制Merton跳扩散模型和Markov调制CGMY Lévy模型期权定价的计算.具体的数值计算说明:修正Fourier Cosine级数展开方法应与Fourier Cosine级数展开方法相比,收敛速度要慢一些,但准确性却有很大的提高.特别是对Markov调制纯跳模型,效果更为显著.     

投资者情绪对上证50ETF隐含分布偏度影响的实证研究

从期权价格中提取信息的传统做法是借助于隐含波动率,然而,通过与标的资产的历史数据对比发现,隐含波动率并不能比历史波动率提供更多的市场预期信息。考虑隐含波动率是利用Black-Scholes模型所导出,意味着模型设定风险也可能会影响到结论的客观性与准确性。为了克服传统方法的不足,本文尝试从一种无模型的视角,利用矩方法展开相关研究。该方法不依赖于任何模型和假设,避免了对定价核以及中性概率分布的讨论,直接由期权价格得到股票收益的隐含分布,利用状态价格来确定市场预期收益与风险厌恶。在分布曲线足够光滑(可导)的条件下,通过对行权价格求导得到标的资产未来收益的隐含风险中性概率密度,并测算出隐含分布的高阶矩特征。     

基于跳扩散模型欧式期权定价的条件二叉树方法

对股票价格的跳扩散模型进行了分析,在CRR二叉树期权定价模型的基础上考虑标的股票价格发生跳跃的情况,得出基于跳扩散过程的股票期权的条件二叉树定价模型,并且证明在极限情况下,该条件二叉树模型的期权定价公式趋于Merton的解析定价公式,数值试验证实该条件二叉树模型的有效性。     

Bounds for the price of a European-style Asian option in a binary tree model

Inspired by the ideas of Rogers and Shi [J. Appl. Prob. 32 (1995) 1077], Chalasani et al. [J. Comput. Finance 1(4) (1998) 11] derived accurate lower and upper bounds for the price of a European-style Asian option with continuous averaging over the full lifetime of the option, using a discrete-time binary tree model. In this paper, we consider arithmetic Asian options with discrete sampling and we generalize their method to the case of forward starting Asian options. In this case with daily time steps, the method of Chalasani et al. is still very accurate but the computation can take a very long time on a PC when the number of steps in the binomial tree is high. We derive analytical lower and upper bounds based on the approach of Kaas et al. [Insurance: Math. Econ. 27 (2000) 151] for bounds for stop-loss premiums of sums of dependent random variables, and by conditioning on the value of underlying asset at the exercise date. The comonotonic upper bound corresponds to an optimal superhedging strategy. By putting in less information than Chalasani et al. the bounds lose some accuracy but are still very good and they are easily computable and moreover the computation on a PC is fast. We illustrate our results by different numerical experiments and compare with bounds for the Black and Scholes model [J. Pol. Econ. 7 (1973) 637] found in another paper [Bounds for the price of discretely sampled arithmetic Asian options, Working paper, Ghent University, 2002]. We notice that the intervals of Chalasani et al. do not always lie within the Black and Scholes intervals. We have proved that our bounds converge to the corresponding bounds in the Black and Scholes model. Our numerical illustrations also show that the hedging error is small if the Asian option is in the money. If the option is out of the money, the price of the superhedging strategy is not as adequate, but still lower than the straightforward hedge of buying one European option with the same exercise price.     

期权定价的新型三叉树方法

讨论了普通二叉树模型定价公式的缺陷,在新型二叉树定价模型的基础上利用原点矩和中心矩的关系得出新型三叉树定价模型公式,并且证明该三叉树模型下期权价格满足的方程是B-S方程在Δt上的一阶近似.     

Generalised soft binomial American real option pricing model (fuzzy–stochastic approach)

The stochastic discrete binomial models and continuous models are usually applied in option valuation. Valuation of the real American options is solved usually by the numerical procedures. Therefore, binomial model is suitable approach for appraising the options of American type. However, there is not in several situations especially in real option methodology application at to disposal input data of required quality. Two aspects of input data uncertainty should be distinguished; risk (stochastic) and vagueness (fuzzy). Traditionally, input data are in a form of real (crisp) numbers or crisp-stochastic distribution function. Therefore, hybrid models, combination of risk and vagueness could be useful approach in option valuation. Generalised hybrid fuzzy–stochastic binomial American real option model under fuzzy numbers (T-numbers) and Decomposition principle is proposed and described. Input data (up index, down index, growth rate, initial underlying asset price, exercise price and risk-free rate) are in a form of fuzzy numbers and result, possibility-expected option value is also determined vaguely as a fuzzy set. Illustrative example of equity valuation as an American real call option is presented.     

随机波动率的美式期权定价

本文利用随机波动率状态有限Markov链,通过有限差分方法计算美式期权的价值.这种方法既避免了建立复杂的随机波动率模型,又较大程度地改进了常数波动率的计算结果,获得与真实结果比较接近数值解,推广了二项式概率树模型.     

Model‐based quantification of the volatility of options at transaction level with extended count regression models

In this paper, we elaborate how Poisson regression models of different complexity can be used in order to model absolute transaction price changes of an exchange‐traded security. When combined with an adequate autoregressive conditional duration model, our modelling approach can be used to construct a complete modelling framework for a security's absolute returns at transaction level, and thus for a model‐based quantification of intraday volatility and risk. We apply our approach to absolute price changes of an option on the XETRA DAX index based on quote‐by‐quote data from the EUREX exchange and find that within our Bayesian framework a Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) with a latent AR(1) process in the mean is the best model for our data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC). While, according to our modelling results, the price development of the underlying, the intrinsic value of the option at the time of the trade, the number of new quotations between two price changes, the time between two price changes and the Bid–Ask spread have significant effects on the size of the price changes, this is not the case for the remaining time to maturity of the option. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

期权定价新型二叉树参数模型的构造

对目前普遍使用的期权定价二叉树模型的缺陷进行了分析,利用矩法构造出新型的二叉树参数模型.新的模型避免了负的概率并且具有很高的计算精度,因而可应用于计算各种期权的价格.     

基于教育基金保险的期权定价

本文基于文献[1]引入一种基于教育年金保险的欧式看涨期权,它赋予合约持有人在约定时间以约定价格购买一份连续支付一定年限的教育年金的权利,本文运用保险精算和期权定价的二叉树方法对其进行的定价,并说明这种合约方便于一些低收入家庭进行教育投资.     

带交易费用和红利的欧式期权定价的数值方法

本文在 L eland的带交易费用的欧式期权定价模型基础上 ,先推导出一般费用模型的定价公式 ,然后用二叉树图法给出了带有交易费用和红利的欧式看涨期权定价的数值方法 ,并比较了多头和空头的不同价值。