中国三次产业结构与初次分配结构变动关系的实证研究

构造了考虑产业结构影响的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型,利用我国1990-2009年的跨产业部门时间系列数据,采用岭回归的方法计算出三次产业比重对要素产出弹性的影响系数,以2009年的数据为基础,分析了产业结构变动对初次分配结构的影响,研究结果表明,工业化是劳动报酬份额下降的原因,而加强农业的基础地位、稳步推进以第三产业为主导的经济转型有助于改善初次分配恶化的局面。     

固定资产投资对产业结构变动的影响分析

产业结构提升是一国或地区经济素质的重要表现,在产业结构演变的过程中,固定资产投资起着推动和促进的作用。本文运用成分分析的基本原理,对1980年以来我国产业结构的变化以及与固定资产投资活动的关系进行了测算分析。主要内容包括:产业结构成分变动的描述,产业结构成分变动检验,产业结构与固定资产投资之间关系的成分回归模拟等。     

基于马尔科夫理论的西部欠发达地区产业结构升级与经济增长实证研究

基于2001-2014年贵州省黔西南州三次产业产值数据,应用马尔科夫理论构建区域产业结构最小偏离模型,求得产业结构状态转移概率矩阵并验证其准确性,预测出2015-2024年贵州省黔西南州三次产业产值比重.以2020年的预测值为参照标准,计算出2001-2014年贵州省黔西南州产业结构的有序度为0.674-0.993,表明近十几年来贵州省黔西南州产业结构在逐步趋向合理,现已形成较为稳定且有序的"三、二、一"产业结构,故目前优化该区域产业结构的关键是如何使三次产业保持稳定发展.分析黔西南州产业结构变化与经济增长相关性,证实了第三产业的发展对GDP增长的贡献最大,是区域经济发展的新增长点.最后,提出优化区域产业结构的具体策略.     

基于GAM模型分析变量对产业结构的影响研究

对全国2000-2015年的产业结构以及影响变量的面板数据,使用广义加模型(GAM)研究各变量对产业结构产生的影响,分别分析了单变量和多变量对产业结构产生的影响,然后使用GAM模型对数据进行了10倍交叉验证的模拟实验.结构表明,单变量对产业结构有很大影响,其中科技金融发展指数等对产业结构呈线性作用,多变量的交互作用能够明显对产业结构产生影响,人均GDP对产业结构的影响可以通过其他因素表出.GAM模型对预测的拟合效果比较好.     

新疆产业结构趋同及其合理性分析

区域产业结构是否合理与区域经济能否健康发展有着密切联系.区域产业结构趋同是在经济发展过程中区域间产业结构的相似表现.利用2010年至2017年数据,通过计算区位熵和产业结构相似系数对新疆14个地州的产业集聚水平和产业结构趋同化进行测度.结果表明:新疆14个地州一、二、三产产业结构趋同化,随时间呈现产业相似的演变特征,南北疆产业结构差异逐渐减弱.为此提出发挥区域优势、延伸产业链、加强区域合作、提高配置效率的对策建议.     

人口老龄化与区域产业结构——基于分位数回归的实证研究

基于2005-2016年的省级面板数据,运用分位数回归实证分析了人口老龄化背景下,产业结构优化升级的影响因素.结果表明:全部样本的老年抚养比对产业结构优化升级的阻碍作用十分明显,东部对产业结构的影响不显著,中部的阻碍作用与全国趋势相反,西部的阻碍作用与全国趋势相同,具有明显的区域差异性;全部样本和东中西部的人均GDP都是正向推动产业结构合理化和高度化;全部样本和西部的政府行为对产业结构调整的抑制作用在增强,而东中部对产业结构调整的促进作用在增强;全部样本和东部的创新效率对产业结构调整有不断增强地推动作用,中部对产业结构调整的促进作用在减弱,而西部对产业结构调整的阻碍作用在增强.     

改革开放以来我国产业结构的地区间比较及动态分析

产业结构提升是一国或地区经济素质的重要表现,是国民经济宏观管理的重要目标。本文对1978-2007我国产业结构的变化,以及地区间产业结构的相似性等问题进行了定量分析。主要内容包括:1978年以来全国产业结构的状况描述及变动检验,各地区产业结构变化及其与全国产业结构相比的类似性,产业结构特征的地区间分类。主要结论有:不论是从全国还是从各个地区来说我国三次产业结构变化总体上符合产业结构演变的规律;产业结构在地区间表现出较弱的不平衡性,没有出现整体性产业结构趋同化现象等。     

线性规划在农村劳力转移研究中的应用

本文以郯城县店子乡为背景,以提高经济效益为目标,提出了农村劳力结构的优化问题,并对农村剩余劳力的合理转移问题给出了一种研究方法,用此方法求得了店子乡1986～1990年农村劳力转移优化方案。     

儿童伤害的模糊综合评价应用

本在对1990～1999年安徽医科大学第一附属医院收治的3450例0～7岁儿童因发生伤害而住院治疗的病例进行归纳整理的基础上，运用模糊综合评价的方法，分析了不同年龄段儿童伤害原因与康复状况的关系，针对性地提出了预防儿童伤害事故发生的有效措施。     

西南地区林业产业结构分析

通过马尔科夫预测法建立了林业产业最小偏离模型,基于1998-2013年西南地区林业三次产业产值数据,求得西南地区林业产业结构的马尔科夫状态转移概率矩阵并验证其准确性,预测出2014-2023年西南地区林业三次产业产值比重.以2020年的预测值为参照标准,计算出1998-2013年西南地区林业产业结构的有序度为0.68-0.97,表明近十几年来西南地区林业产业结构调整的方向是正确的,但仍需进一步进行调整,最后提出西南地区林业产业结构优化升级对策.     

Supply chain cooperation in industrial districts: A simulation analysis

In the past few years the literature on supply chain management has widely emphasized that cooperation among supply chain (SC) firms is a key source of competitive advantage. This paper explores the topic in a particular context, i.e. the industrial district (ID), which constitutes a specific production model where complex SC networks can be identified. SC cooperation may take on several forms in IDs and may produce several benefits (e.g. upgrading quality and reducing costs) so this paper also analyzes the benefits of a specific form of SC cooperation in different competitive scenarios and for diverse ID organizational structures. An agent-based model of SC cooperation in IDs has been developed and a simulation analysis carried out.     

Comparison of typical mega cities in China using emergy synthesis

An emergy-based comparison analysis is conducted for three typical mega cities in China, i.e., Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, from 1990 to 2005 in four perspectives including emergy intensity, resource structure, environmental pressure and resource use efficiency. A new index of non-renewable emergy/money ratio is established to indicate the utilization efficiency of the non-renewable resources. The results show that for the three mega urban systems, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the total emergy inputs were 3.76E+23, 3.54E+23, 2.52E+23 sej in 2005, of which 64.88%, 91.45% and 72.28% were imported from the outsides, respectively. As to the indicators of emergy intensity involving the total emergy use, emergy density and emergy use per cap, three cities exhibited similar overall increase trends with annual fluctuations from 1990 to 2005. Shanghai achieved the highest level of economic development and non-renewable resource use efficiency, and meanwhile, lower proportion of renewable resource use and higher environmental pressure compared to those of Beijing and Guangzhou. Guangzhou has long term sustainability considering an amount of local renewable resources used, per capita emergy used, energy consumption per unit GDP and the ratio of waste to renewable emergy. It can be concluded that different emergy-based evaluation results arise from different geographical locations, resources endowments, industrial structures and urban orientations of the concerned mega cities.     

基于LMDI的中国能源消费碳排放强度变化因素分解

利用IPCC《国家温室气体清单指南》(2006)推荐的参考方法和参数,评估和计算中国1997年-2007年的碳排放量和碳排放强度,并应用LMDI方法对碳排放强度进行因素分解.研究结果表明,能源强度因素对我国碳排放强度变化的贡献率最大,达到139.66%;产业结构效应次之,为-28.23%;能源结构效应最小,为-11.43%.针对实证结果,提出现阶段我国节能减排的重点在于提高能源效率、调整产业结构及优化能源结构.     

INDUSTRIAL WASTEWATER CONTROL IN CHINESE CITIES: DETERMINANTS OF SUCCESS IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

The research reported in this paper has three objectives: (1) to examine trends in Chinese industrial wastewater pollution and to describe policies developed to control this pollution; (2) to analyze relationships between the degree of industrial wastewater pollution control and the economic, demographic, and organizational characteristics of major Chinese cities; and (3) to identify factors that determine the success of the government's efforts to control industrial wastewater pollution. The study specifies and econometrically estimates a system of pollution control equations based on a unique data set for 82 Chinese cities from 1985 to 1990. Results demonstrate that the structure of enterprise ownership and investment in environmental management capacity are associated with increases in the effectiveness of wastewater pollution control. The Discharge Permit System, one of China's main strategies for urban environmental protection, appears to have been moderately successful in increasing wastewater treatment, but it has not encouraged enterprise managers to adopt less-polluting production technology.     

江苏制造业产业结构与用工结构变动与偏离关系实证分析

采用2002-2011年的江苏规模以上制造业面板数据,运用结构变化K值和Moore结构模型对比考察制造业产业结构、用工结构的变动速度和程度,运用结构偏离度模型对江苏制造业具体产业结构和用工结构的结构偏离方向、偏离变化情况进行实证分析.结果表明,近10年江苏制造业产业结构、用工结构各自变化呈扩大趋势,两者相比用工结构变化更明显.同时,产业结构与用工结构存在一定偏离,不同产业偏离方向和偏离程度存在差异,大部分劳动密集型产业为负偏离结构,而资本密集型产业为正偏离结构.     

制造业集聚对劳动生产率影响的区域差异和产业差异

我国制造业由90年代开始急速向东部地区集聚,但近几年这种集聚态势有所减弱,甚至有一些东部地区行业向其他地区进行了转移,产业集聚存在区域差异导致这种现象的根本原因.并针对产业的行业差异给出产业转移建议.利用我国2007-2009年29个省、市、自治区(不包括青海和西藏)四位码制造业数据探索产业外部性对劳动生产率的影响及这种影响的区域差异和产业差异,有如下发现:首先,"地方化经济"的可分解为"就业密度"和"竞争程度".计量结果表明:1)地区差异:就全国样本来说,就业密度对劳动生产率有正向影响,但对东部地区的影响由2007年的显著正向影响转变为2009年的影响不显著.竞争程度对劳动生产率有正向影响,但2007-2009年三年间,其对东部地区的影响均小于对内陆地区的影响.表明东部地区已经逐步丧失考劳动力集聚所得到的优势,且竞争的负面影响有所显现,2)行业差异:竞争程度对劳动生产率的影响因行业而不同,劳动密集型行业受到竞争程度的正向影响更大,而资本密集型行业受到竞争程度的正向影响较小,即同行业的集聚对劳动密集型行业有利,而对资本密集型行业影响较小,这也是创新点之一.最后,对计量结果进行了现实性分析并提出政策建议,建议劳动密集型行业由东部向中部转移,因为东部已失去了单纯靠劳动力数目提高劳动生产率的优势,并且东部地区企业竞争的负面效应有所显现,同时中部地区也有能力做好承接工作,但是这还要建立在中部加速自身发展和建设的基础之上.     

Self‐organizing market structures,system dynamics,and urn theory

Using data from Fortune Magazine's 500 American largest corporations from 1955 to 2010, this article shows that firm sizes at national and industrial level are highly skew but not Zipf‐distributed. It also argues that, while self‐organizing industrial structures of this kind are due to increasing returns and hard to describe with conventional theories, system dynamics and urn theory are equipped with adequate tools to analyze them.     

Strategies and Sources of Support for Beginning Teachers of Science and Mathematics

This study examines the support structures and strategies utilized by beginning mathematics and science teachers. The qualitative case study of 18 teachers (0–3 years of experience) includes teachers from rural, suburban and urban schools. Data collection consisted of one‐hour interviews. The findings indicate participants utilized formal and informal support structures within the school district (e.g., mentoring programs, talking to other new teachers) as well as those external to the school (e.g., professional organizations and conferences, talking to family and friends). We propose a model of beginning teachers' initiating access to support structures based on the realization that their ideal images of teaching do not match the realities of their classrooms. Implications are given for teacher educators, researchers, and school administrators.     

Linear extensions of dynamical systems on a torus and Green's functions

We found new structures of linear extensions of dynamical systems on a torus which have a unique Green's function.Translated from Ukrainskii Matematicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 42, No. 9, pp. 1219–1224, 1990.     

Specification of topological spaces by algebraic systems of continuous functions

This survey presents results on specification of topological spaces by various algebraic structures of continuous functions. Results are presented on specification of E-compact spaces by general structures of continuous functions, on specification of spaces by rings of continuous functions and the systems associated with them, and on specifications of spaces by lattices of open sets and semigroups of continuous transformations. Methods from the theory are illustrated by examples.Translated from Itogi Nauki i Tekhniki, Seriya Algebra, Topologiya, Geometriya, Vol. 28, pp. 3–46, 1990.