基于LMDI的中国能源消费碳排放强度变化因素分解

利用IPCC《国家温室气体清单指南》(2006)推荐的参考方法和参数,评估和计算中国1997年-2007年的碳排放量和碳排放强度,并应用LMDI方法对碳排放强度进行因素分解.研究结果表明,能源强度因素对我国碳排放强度变化的贡献率最大,达到139.66%;产业结构效应次之,为-28.23%;能源结构效应最小,为-11.43%.针对实证结果,提出现阶段我国节能减排的重点在于提高能源效率、调整产业结构及优化能源结构.

Factors Decomposition of Energy Carbon Emissions Intensity in China Based on LMDI

Using the calculation methodology and carbon emission coefficients adopted by IPCC(2006),energy consumption carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity in China were calculated from 1997-2007.And impacts from industrial structures,energy mix and energy efficiency on carbon emission coefficient were examined in detail with the LMDI method.Empirical results showed that energy efficiency effect played an important part in decrease China’s carbon emissions coefficient,whose contribution ration reached 139.66%, while industrial structures effect had a small and positive contribution ratio and energy mix effect had a small and irregular contribution ratio to China’s carbon emissions coefficient in the past years,whose contribution ration reached—28.23%and—11.43%,respectively. According to the empirical analysis results,corresponding policy suggestions were given as focusing on improving energy efficiency,adjusting industrial structure and optimizing energy mix.