一类带有潜伏期和部分免疫的传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设被接种者具有部分免疫,建立了一类具有潜伏期和接种的SEIR传染病模型,借助再生矩阵得到了确定此接种模型动力学行为的基本再生数.当基本再生数小于1时,模型只有无病平衡点;当基本再生数大于1时,除无病平衡点外,模型还有唯一的地方病平衡点.借助Liapunov函数,证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

一类带有感染年龄SIR模型最优化免疫策略的存在性

对于一个免疫策略来讲,付出(单位时间内接种疫苗的数量)和效果(再生数的大小)是两个重要概念.在给定的费用下找到带有最小再生数的策略和在给定的再生数下找到最小费用的策略是两个最优问题.对一个确定的免疫策略来说,人群中的易感群体和染病群体会趋于相对稳定的状态.当一种疾病侵袭已免疫人群时,用带有感染年龄的SIR模型去描述这类疾病的传播更为准确.因此,本文研究了一类带有感染年龄的SIR模型,得到了最优化策略的存在性.     

一类具有接种疫苗和再次感染的传染病模型分析

建立和研究了具有接种疫苗和再次感染的SEIRV传染病模型.给出了基本再生数的表达式,得到了模型存在后向分支的条件.     

两类禽流感模型的动力学分析

本文根据人类感染禽流感的两种可能途径,一是被带有禽流感病毒的禽感染;二是被感染禽流感病毒的人群感染,通过考虑人类易感者和禽类感染者以及人类易感者和人类感染者之间的传播关系,利用微分方程建立两类SI-SIR禽流感传染病模型.通过对模型的分析,得到疾病是否流行的阈值,即基本再生数,并利用Lyapunov函数以及La Salle不变原理证明两类模型平衡点的局部与全局渐近稳定性.     

年龄结构SIQRS传染病模型稳定性及接种决策

讨论年龄结构SIQRS传染病模型,得出基本再生数?_0和带接种隔离再生数?(ψ)的表达式,证明了当?(ψ)1时,无病平衡点局部渐近稳定;当?01时,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定;当?(ψ)1时,无病平衡点不稳定,此时存在地方病平衡点.利用这些结果给出对于个体来说是一个年龄还是多个年龄接种的最优决策,并且给出了一次还是两次接种的最优决策.     

一类带有接种的SIR传染病模型的全局分析

基于经典的SIR传染病模型,建立了一类具有接种的SIR-V传染病模型,考虑了被接种者具有确定免疫期和免疫力按指数消失两种情形,得到了相应的基本再生数,并证明了其全局渐近稳定性.     

总人口规模变化的年龄结构MSEIR流行病模型的再生数

在总人口规模变化和疾病影响死亡率的假设下,讨论了带二次感染和接种疫苗的年龄结构MSEIR流行病模型.首先给出再生数R(ψ,λ)(这里ψ(a)是接种疫苗率,λ是总人口的增长指数)的显式表达式.其次,证明了当R(ψ,λ)<1时,系统的无病平衡态是稳定的;当R(ψ,λ)>1时,无病平衡态是不稳定的.     

年龄结构SIQR传染病模型及稳定性

讨论了年龄结构SIQR传染病模型,得出基本再生数R_0和接种再生数R(ψ)的表达式,证明了当R(ψ)1时,无病平衡点局部渐近稳定;当R_01时,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定;当R(ψ)1时,无病平衡点不稳定,此时存在唯一的地方病平衡点,并给出了地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性条件,这些条件对于控制疾病的传播具有重要的理论及实际意义,同时用再生数的表达式进一步解释了接种和隔离治疗在控制消除传染病中的作用.     

具有接种疫苗和重复感染的SEIR传染病模型分析

建立和研究了具有接种疫苗和再次感染的常微分方程形式的SEIR传染病模型.给出了基本再生数的表达式,讨论了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性和稳定性条件,给出了模型存在后向分支的条件.     

一类具有胞内时滞和饱和CTL免疫反应的HTLV-I感染模型的全局动力学性态

研究了一类具有胞内时滞,饱和感染率及饱和CTL免疫反应的HTLV-I感染动力学模型.通过计算得到了模型的两个阙值条件:病毒感染再生数和免疫反应再生数,分析了可行平衡点的存在性;通过分析特征方程根的分布讨论了可行平衡点的局部渐近稳定性;通过构造适当的Lyapunov泛函并结合LaSalle不变性原理得出:若病毒感染再生数小于1,则病毒未感染平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,病毒被清除;若免疫反应再生数小于1且病毒感染再生数大于1,则免疫未激活感染平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;若免疫反应再生数大于1,则免疫激活感染平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.最后通过对病毒感染再生数和免疫反应再生数进行敏感性分析,讨论了参数和再生数之间的相关性.     

Analysis of an SVIC model with age-dependent infection and asymptomatic carriers

In this paper,we formulated an age-dependent model for the transmission dynamics of HBV with vaccination. The class of acutely infectious individuals,asymptomatic carrier of host population is stratified by age. Mathematically, we established that basic reproduction number can govern the global stability of equilibria. Biologically, we verify the impacts of the asymptomatic carriers and the effectiveness of vaccination on the disease transmission through numerical simulation. Our results indicated that the more number of infectious individuals specific to frequently progressed to asymptomatic carriers, the more likely the disease can be eradicated by continuous vaccination strategies.     

Three kinds of TVS in a SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission

Three different vaccination and treatment strategies in the SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission are analyzed. The dynamics of epidemic models are globally investigated by using Floquet theory and comparison theorem of impulsive differential equation. Thresholds are identified and global stability results are proved. For every treatment and vaccination strategy, the disease-free periodic solution of impulsive system has been obtained and is found to be globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, equivalently the cure rate is larger than the threshold value, whereas the disease is persistent when the basic reproduction number is larger than one. These results indicate that a large cure rate will lead to the eradication of a disease.     

带有脉冲免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型的全局吸引性

讨论了带有脉冲免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型.传染类的恢复率是传染年龄的函数,当染病再生数小于1时,文章得到无病周期解是全局吸引的.如果总人口规模变化,也可得到类似的结论.最后,提出了带有脉冲免疫和传染年龄传染病模型待解决的问题.     

带有免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型

建立了带有免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型,这种传染病带有病原体Ⅰ或Ⅱ,病原体Ⅰ可发展为病原体Ⅱ,得到了无病平衡态全局稳定和局部稳定的条件.当病原体Ⅰ不发展为病原体Ⅱ时,得到了病原体Ⅰ类平衡态的稳定性依赖于病原体Ⅱ类的基本再生指数.     

Pulse and constant control schemes for epidemic models with seasonality

Control schemes for infectious disease models with time-varying contact rate are analyzed. First, time-constant control schemes are introduced and studied. Specifically, a constant treatment scheme for the infected is applied to a SIR model with time-varying contact rate, which is modelled by a switching parameter. Two variations of this model are considered: one with waning immunity and one with progressive immunity. Easily verifiable conditions on the basic reproduction number of the infectious disease are established which ensure disease eradication under these constant control strategies. Pulse control schemes for epidemic models with time-varying contact rates are also studied in detail. Both pulse vaccination and pulse treatment models are applied to a SIR model with time-varying contact rate. Further, a vaccine failure model as well as a model with a reduced infective class are considered with pulse control schemes. Again, easily verifiable conditions on the basic reproduction number are developed which guarantee disease eradication. Some simulations are given to illustrate the threshold theorems developed.     

Effect of vaccination strategies on the dynamic behavior of epidemic spreading and vaccine coverage

The transmission of infectious, yet vaccine-preventable, diseases is a typical complex social phenomenon, where the increasing level of vaccine update in the population helps to inhibit the epidemic spreading, which in turn, however, discourages more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, due to the “externality effect” raised by vaccination. We herein study the impact of vaccination strategies, pure, continuous (rather than adopt vaccination definitely, the individuals choose to taking vaccine with some probabilities), or continuous with randomly mutation, on the vaccination dynamics with a spatial susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered (SVIR) epidemiological model. By means of extensive Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that there is a crossover behavior of the final vaccine coverage between the pure-strategy case and the continuous-strategy case, and remarkably, both the final vaccination level and epidemic size in the continuous-strategy case are less than them in the pure-strategy case when vaccination is cheap. We explain this phenomenon by analyzing the organization process of the individuals in the continuous-strategy case in the equilibrium. Our results are robust to the SVIR dynamics defined on other spatial networks, like the Erdős–Rényi and Barabási–Albert networks.     

Spreading speed for a nonlocal dispersal vaccination model with general incidence

This paper is concerned with the spreading speed for a nonlocal dispersal vaccination model with general incidence. We first prove the existence and uniform boundedness of solutions for this model by using the Schauder’s fixed point theorem. Then, applying comparison principle, we establish the existence of spreading speed for the infective individuals. According to our result, one can see that the spreading speed coincides with the critical speed of traveling wave solution connecting the disease-free and endemic equilibria. In addition, the diffusion rate of the infected individuals can increase the spread of infectious diseases, while the vaccination rate reduces the spread of infectious diseases.     

一类两菌株传染病模型的稳定性分析

建立和讨论一类具有比例接种疫苗丧失率的两菌株SIJVS传染病模型,给出了该模型基本再生数和侵入再生数的表达式,分析了无病平衡点、菌株占优平衡点、共存平衡点的存在性和稳定性.     

Risk assessment for infectious disease and its impact on voluntary vaccination behavior in social networks

Achievement of the herd immunity is essential for preventing the periodic spreading of an infectious disease such as the flu. If vaccination is voluntary, as vaccination coverage approaches the critical level required for herd immunity, there is less incentive for individuals to be vaccinated; this results in an increase in the number of so-called “free-riders” who craftily avoid infection via the herd immunity and avoid paying any cost. We use a framework originating in evolutionary game theory to investigate this type of social dilemma with respect to epidemiology and the decision of whether to be vaccinated. For each individual in a population, the decision on vaccination is associated with how one assesses the risk of infection. In this study, we propose a new risk-assessment model in a vaccination game when an individual updates her strategy, she compares her own payoff to a net payoff obtained by averaging a collective payoff over individuals who adopt the same strategy as that of a randomly selected neighbor. In previous studies of vaccination games, when an individual updates her strategy, she typically compares her payoff to the payoff of a randomly selected neighbor, indicating that the risk for changing her strategy is largely based on the behavior of one other individual, i.e., this is an individual-based risk assessment. However, in our proposed model, risk assessment by any individual is based on the collective success of a strategy and not on the behavior of any one other individual. For strategy adaptation, each individual always takes a survey of the degree of success of a certain strategy that one of her neighbors has adopted, i.e., this is a strategy-based risk assessment. Using computer simulations, we determine how these two different risk-assessment methods affect the spread of an infectious disease over a social network. The proposed model is found to benefit the population, depending on the structure of the social network and cost of vaccination. Our results suggest that individuals (or governments) should understand the structure of their social networks at the regional level, and accordingly, they should adopt an appropriate risk-assessment methodology as per the demands of the situation.     

Global analysis of multi-strains SIS, SIR and MSIR epidemic models

We consider SIS, SIR and MSIR models with standard mass action and varying population, with n different pathogen strains of an infectious disease. We also consider the same models with vertical transmission. We prove that under generic conditions a competitive exclusion principle holds. To each strain a basic reproduction ratio can be associated. It corresponds to the case where only this strain exists. The basic reproduction ratio of the complete system is the maximum of each individual basic reproduction ratio. Actually we also define an equivalent threshold for each strain. The winner of the competition is the strain with the maximum threshold. It turns out that this strain is the most virulent, i.e., this is the strain for which the endemic equilibrium gives the minimum population for the susceptible host population. This can be interpreted as a pessimization principle.