Global stability of multigroup epidemic model with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates

In this paper, we introduce a basic reproduction number for a multigroup SEIR model with nonlinear incidence of infection and nonlinear removal functions between compartments. Then, we establish that global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. It shows that, the basic reproduction number R₀ is a global threshold parameter in the sense that if it is less than or equal to one, the disease free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out; whereas if it is larger than one, there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally stable and thus the disease persists in the population. Finally, two numerical examples are also included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed result.     

Multistrain edge‐based compartmental model on networks

Multistrain diseases, which are infected through individual contacts, pose severe public health threat nowadays. In this paper, we build competitive and mutative two‐strain edge‐based compartmental models using probability generation function (PGF) and pair approximation (PA). Both of them are ordinary differential equations. Their basic reproduction numbers and final size formulas are explicitly derived. We show that the formula gives a unique positive final epidemic size when the reproduction number is larger than unity. We further consider competitive and mutative multistrain diseases spreading models and compute their basic reproduction numbers. We perform numerical simulations that show some dynamical properties of the competitive and mutative two‐strain models.     

Dynamics of virus infection models with density‐dependent diffusion and Beddington–DeAngelis functional response

In this work, we integrate both density‐dependent diffusion process and Beddington–DeAngelis functional response into virus infection models to consider their combined effects on viral infection and its control. We perform global analysis by constructing Lyapunov functions and prove that the system is well posed. We investigated the viral dynamics for scenarios of single‐strain and multi‐strain viruses and find that, for the multi‐strain model, if the basic reproduction number for all viral strains is greater than 1, then each strain persists in the host. Our investigation indicates that treating a patient using only a single type of therapy may cause competitive exclusion, which is disadvantageous to the patient's health. For patients infected with several viral strains, the combination of several therapies is a better choice. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类具有二次感染和接种的两病株流行病模型

本文考虑了一类具有二次感染和接种的两病株流行病模型，通过定义每一病株的基本再生数和侵入再生数，我们分析了非负平衡态的稳定性并获得了这样结论：对于较低的接种水平，病株一感染者处于支配地位而病株二感染者将从易感人群中消失，对于非常高的接种水平，疾病将均被消除。     

A HIV Infection Model with Periodic Multidrug Therapy

This paper investigates the effects of periodic drug treatment on a HIV infection model with two co-circulation populations of target cells. We first introduce the basic reproduction ratio for the model, and then show that the infection free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1, while the infection persists and there exists at least one positive periodic state when R0 > 1. Therefore, R0 serves as a threshold parameter for the infection. We then consider an optimization problem by shifting the phase of drug efficacy functions, which corresponds to change the dosage time of drugs in each time interval. It turns out that shifting the phase affect critically on the stability of the infection free steady state. Finally, exhaustive numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical analysis and explore the optimal phase shift.     

Nonlinear dynamics and intermittency in a long-term copepod time series

We consider the nonlinear dynamics of a long-term copepod (small crustaceans) time series sampled weekly in the Mediterranean sea from 1967 to 1992. Such population dynamics display a high variability that we consider here in an interdisciplinary study, using tools borrowed from the field of statistical physics. We analyse the extreme events of male and female abundances, and of the total population, and show that they both have heavy tailed probability density functions (pdf). We provide hyperbolic fits of the form p(x) ∼ 1/x^μ+1, and estimate the value of μ using Hill’s estimator. We then study the ratio of male to female abundances, compared to the female abundances. Using conditional probability density functions and conditional averages, we show that this ratio is independent of the female density, when the latter is larger than a given threshold. This property is very useful for modelization. We also consider the product of male to female abundances, which can be ecologically related to the encounters. We show that this product is extremely intermittent, and link its pdf to the female pdf.     

JOINTLY‐DETERMINED ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS AND ECONOMIC TRADE‐OFFS IN WILDLIFE DISEASE MANAGEMENT

ABSTRACT. We investigate wildlife disease management, in a bioeconomic framework, when the wildlife host is valuable and disease transmission is density‐dependent. Disease prevalence is reduced in density‐dependent models whenever the population is harvested below a host‐density threshold a threshold population density below which disease prevalence declines and above which a disease becomes epidemic. In conventional models, the threshold is an exogenous function of disease parameters. We consider this case and find a steady state with positive disease prevalence to be optimal. Next, we consider a case in which disease dynamics are affected by both population controls and changes in human‐environmental interactions. The host‐density threshold is endogenous in this case. That is, the manager does not simply manage the population relative to the threshold, but rather manages both the population and the threshold. The optimal threshold depends on the economic and ecological trade‐offs arising from the jointly‐determined system. Accounting for this endogene‐ity can lead to reduced disease prevalence rates and higher population levels. Additionally, we show that ecological parameters that may be unimportant in conventional models that do not account for the endogeneity of the host‐density threshold are potentially important when host density threshold is recognized as endogenous.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.     

Population models with partial migration

Populations exhibiting partial migration consist of two groups of individuals: Those that migrate between habitats, and those that remain fixed in a single habitat. We propose several discrete-time population models to investigate the coexistence of migrants and residents. The first class of models is linear, and we distinguish two scenarios. In the first, there is a single egg pool to which both populations contribute. A fraction of the eggs is destined to become migrants, and the remainder become residents. In a second model, there are two distinct egg pools to which the two types contribute, one corresponding to residents and another to migrants. The asymptotic growth or decline in these models can be phrased in terms of the value of the basic reproduction number being larger or less than one respectively. A second class of models incorporates density dependence effects. It is assumed that increased densities in the various life history stages adversely affect the success of transitioning of individuals to subsequent stages. Here too we consider models with one or two egg pools. Although these are nonlinear models, their asymptotic dynamics can still be classified in terms of the value of a locally defined basic reproduction number: If it is less than one, then the entire population goes extinct, whereas it settles at a unique fixed point consisting of a mixture of residents and migrants, when it is larger than one. Thus, the value of the basic reproduction number can be used to predict the stable coexistence or collapse of populations exhibiting partial migration.     

Global stability of delay multigroup epidemic models with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates

In this paper, we present a new delay multigroup SEIR model with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates and investigate its global stability. We establish that the global dynamics of the models are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. It is shown that, if R₀?1, then the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease dies out; if R₀>1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable and thus the disease persists in the population. Finally, a numerical example is also discussed to illustrate the effectiveness of the results.     

The unsatisfiability threshold revisited

The problem of determining the unsatisfiability threshold for random 3-SAT formulas consists in determining the clause to variable ratio that marks the experimentally observed abrupt change from almost surely satisfiable formulas to almost surely unsatisfiable. Up to now, there have been rigorously established increasingly better lower and upper bounds to the actual threshold value. In this paper, we consider the problem of bounding the threshold value from above using methods that, we believe, are of interest on their own right. More specifically, we show how the method of local maximum satisfying truth assignments can be combined with results for the occupancy problem in schemes of random allocation of balls into bins in order to achieve an upper bound for the unsatisfiability threshold less than 4.571. In order to obtain this value, we establish a bound on the q-binomial coefficients (a generalization of the binomial coefficients). No such bound was previously known, despite the extensive literature on q-binomial coefficients. Finally, to prove our result we had to establish certain relations among the conditional probabilities of an event in various probabilistic models for random formulas. It turned out that these relations were considerably harder to prove than the corresponding ones for unconditional probabilities, which were previously known.     

Basic Reproduction Number in a Growing Population

The basic reproduction number of a fast disease epidemic on a slowly growing network may increase to a maximum then decrease to its equi- librium value while the population increases, which is not displayed by classical homogeneous mixing disease models. In this paper, we show that, by properly keeping track of the dynamics of the per capita contact rate in the population due to population dynamics, classical homogeneous mixing models show simi- lar non-monotonic dynamics in the basic reproduction number. This suggests that modeling the dynamics of the contact rate in classical disease models with population dynamics may be important to study disease dynamics in growing populations.     

Necessary conditions for functional differential inclusions

We consider an optimal control problem in which the dynamic equation and cost function depend on the recent past of the trajectory. The regularity assumed in the basic data is Lipschitz continuity with respect to the sup norm. It is shown that, for a given optimal solution, an adjoint arc of bounded variation exists that satisfies an associated Hamiltonian inclusion. From this result, known smooth versions of the Pontryagin maximum principle for hereditary problems can be easily derived. Problems with Euclidean endpoint constraints are also considered.     

The effect of population dispersal on the spread of a disease

The effect of population dispersal among n patches on the spread of a disease is investigated. Population dispersal does not destroy the uniqueness of a disease free equilibrium and its attractivity when the basic reproduction number of a disease R₀<1. When R₀>1, the uniqueness and global attractivity of the endemic equilibrium can be obtained if dispersal rates of susceptible individuals and infective individuals are the same or very close in each patch. However, numerical calculations show that population dispersal may result in multiple endemic equilibria and even multi-stable equilibria among patches, and also may result in the extinction of a disease, even though it cannot be eradicated in each isolated patch, provided the basic reproduction numbers of isolated patches are not very large.     

Domain decomposition methods for a class of spatially heterogeneous delayed reaction–diffusion equations

We derive and study a class of delayed reaction–diffusion equations with spatial heterogeneity, which models the population of a single species with different habitats for mature and immature individuals. We introduce new solid cones, obtain spectral bounds of several spatial heterogeneous operators, and establish limiting non-negativeness property for the whole space and the eventual comparison principle for bounded domains. As a result, we develop new domain decomposition methods so that one can compare solutions with those to associated equations from a suitable bounded spatial domain to the whole space. Then by employing domain decomposition methods and dynamical system approaches, we obtain threshold results under the supremum norm. These results are greatly different from the existing ones of other evolution equations in unbounded domains or the whole space. The main results are applied to two examples with the Ricker birth function and with the Mackey–Glass birth function. It reveals that the size of the immature habitat can affect the reproduction and spread of the population.     

A nonautonomous epidemic model on time scales

We obtain conditions for permanence and extinction of the infection for a nonautonomous SIQR model defined on an arbitrary time scale. The threshold conditions are given by some numbers that play the role of the basic reproduction number in this setting. As a particular case of our result, we recover several threshold conditions obtained in the literature, on discrete or continuous time, for autonomous, periodic models and general nonautonomous models and we also discuss some new situations, including an aperiodic time scale.     

Dynamics of an HIV infection model with virus diffusion and latently infected cell activation

Effective combination therapy usually reduces the plasma viral load of HIV to below the detection limit, but it cannot eradicate the virus. The latently infected cell activation is considered to be the main obstacle to completely eradicating HIV infection. In this paper, we consider an HIV infection model with latently infected cell activation, virus diffusion and spatial heterogeneity under Neumann boundary condition. The basic reproduction ratio is characterized by the principal eigenvalue of the related elliptic eigenvalue problem. Besides, by constructing Lyapunov functionals and using Green’s first identity, the global threshold dynamics of the system are completely established. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results, in particular, the influence of virus diffusion rate on the basic reproduction ratio is addressed.     

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host–macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.     

Dynamical analysis of a sex-structured Chlamydia trachomatis transmission model with time delay

The effect of using time delay to model the latency period of Chlamydia trachomatis infection is explored, by designing a deterministic two-sex model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population. The resulting delay differential equation model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. This phenomenon arises due to the re-infection of individuals who recovered from the disease. Using permanence theory, it is shown that Chlamydia will persist in the population whenever the associated reproduction threshold exceeds unity. It is further shown that long latency period could induce positive (decrease disease burden) or negative (increase disease burden) population-level impact depending on the sign of a certain epidemiological threshold quantity and some other conditions. Furthermore, this study shows that adding a time delay (to model the latency period) does not alter the main equilibrium dynamics (with respect to the effective control or persistence of the disease in the community) of the corresponding non-delayed Chlamydia transmission model considered in our earlier study Sharomi and Gumel (2009) [7].     

Stability and Hopf Bifurcation of a Virus Infection Model with a Delayed CTL Immune Response

In this paper, a virus infection model with standard incidence rate and delayed CTL immune response is investigated. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the CTL-activated infection equilibrium are established, respectively. By means of comparison arguments, it is verified that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity. By using suitable Lyapunov functional and LaSalle＇s invariance principle, it is shown that the CTL-inactivated infection equilibrium of the system is globally asymptotically stable if tile immune response reproduction ratio is less than unity and the basic reproduction ratio is greater than unity. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical result.