一类多对多随机格斗的获胜概率

为了计算出多对多随机格斗的获胜概率,首先推导出多对多随机格斗的状态转移速率,然后应用拉普拉斯变换的性质,分别计算出在不带搜索和带搜索两种情形下,三对二随机格斗中双方各自获胜概率的实用公式.     

一类多对一随机格斗的获胜概率

本研究多对一搜索型随机格斗模型，求出了计算格斗双方各自获胜概率的实用公式。     

命中次数随机时毁伤时间分布与格斗获胜概率的研究

文章研究了一对一随机格斗中一类最具有一般性的模型——格斗双方带有搜索系统并且毁伤对方所需命中次数随机的格斗模型 .文章从研究条件随机过程入手 ,导出了格斗方毁伤对方所需时间的分布与相应的特征函数表达形式 ,也求出了计算获胜概率的公式     

水面舰队建立最佳防空编队的数学模型

防空反导是水面舰艇编队最重要的任务之一,我国南海海域辽阔,水面舰艇执行外围岛礁附近海域巡航任务时,往往超出了空中掩护的作战半径,需要自身的对空防御,这时,水面舰艇的编队阵型至关重要.同时,空中目标意图识别是战场态势分析的一个重要部分.以我海军在南海某开阔海域巡逻的水面舰艇编队为例,探究了最佳编队队形的数学模型,并根据所提供的战场空中目标信息,判断目标可能的意图,为威胁判断、火力分配和抗击来袭目标奠定基础.     

水面舰艇编队防空和信息化战争评估模型

研究了由一艘驱逐舰和四艘护卫舰组成的水面舰艇编队的防空建模问题,建立了突出信息平衡度的修正兰彻斯特战争模型.对于问题1,利用编队与来袭导弹的时变相对位置速度数据求解模型,得到编队最佳队形.对于问题2,建立了来袭导弹对舰艇编队追击问题的几何模型,从单舰到编队的拦截区域分析了编队最小防御纵深的估算方法.对于问题3,采用问题2中类似的方法,计算出有信息支援条件下可拦截来袭导弹15批,相比问题二提高了37.20%.对于问题4,采用聚类分析方法对已知意图的附件数据进行聚类,将分类后的类别中心作为意图识别的模式,采用基于所提出的意图偏差度判别分析方法对空中可疑目标可能的意图作出了识别.对于问题5,在分析信息优势的特征和信息平衡度的重要作用的基础上,根据交战双方对对方作战信息的掌控能力和实时水平,给出了交战双方之间的信息平衡度计算模型.以海湾战争作为案例,结合两类模型进行了对比计算,对修正模型的有效性作出了初步验证.     

排队模型仿真分析在舰艇编队防空方面的应用

针对当前评估防空作战效能方法的局限性,将排队论应用于舰艇编队防空系统的突防过程分析和突防概率的计算,建立了计算作战效能的数学模型,在此基础上仿真分析了导弹毁伤概率、火力单元反应时间对突防概率的影响,对防空兵力的优化部署具有重要指导意义。     

军事领域建模问题研究——2015年研究生数模竞赛A题综述

和平是我们向往和追求的目标,研究战争问题并非我们热衷于战争,恰恰相反,只有建立起强大的国防,任何敌人才不敢轻易发起战争,才能赢得世界的长久和平!第十二届全国研究生数学建模竞赛A题:水面舰艇编队防空和信息化战争评估模型,是军事领域的建模问题,战争是残酷和复杂的,应用建模手段研究战争问题是科学有效的方法.针对水面舰艇编队防空和信息化战争评估这两个方面的建模问题,介绍了军事领域建模问题研究的一般方法.通过该赛题的研究,使得研究生们更加关心国防建设,关心海洋,了解军事领域相关问题,对军事领域建模产生更大的兴趣,启发大家把数学,物理学以及计算机与信息处理等其它学科的方法引入到军事领域建模中来,引导研究生们从数学建模走向解决实际问题.     

基于树型结构的采购组合拍卖获胜概率计算方法研究

在基于树型结构的采购组合拍卖模型的研究基础上,建立了这一类采购组合拍卖的投标获胜概率的数学模型,给出了投标获胜概率的求解方法.通过算例,详细分析了具体计算方法的规律性和可行性.投标获胜概率的计算方法本身具有重要意义,同时能够为投标者提供决策依据和行为参考;也为进一步研究采购组合拍卖的投标期望收益、均衡策略和机制设计奠定了必要的理论基础.     

利用有限域上特征为2的正交几何构作一类Cartesian认证码

利用了有限域上的特征为2的正交几何构造了一类Cartesian认证码,并且计算了其参数及模仿攻击成功的概率PI和替换攻击成功的概率PS.     

“三局两胜、五局三胜”制公平吗？

在体育比赛中 ,一局定胜负 ,虽然比赛双方获胜的概率均为二分之一 ,但是由于实验的次数太少 ,偶然因素较多 ,不能较好地展示双方实力 ,故这种赛制难以使参赛者信服 ,不能展现胜者风范 .而比赛组织者普遍采用的“三局两胜”或“五局三胜”制决定胜负的方法 ,既令参赛选手满意 ,又被观众所接受 .那么 ,这种比赛制度公平吗 ?下面用概率的观点和知识加以阐述 .由于一场比赛前两位选手的水平或胜率是一个不可测的未知数 ,因此 ,赛事组织者理应撇开比赛中甲、乙双方的原有水平 ,而认为在一次比赛中甲、乙双方获胜的概率各为 ｐ=12 ,即在一局比赛中…     

A kind of stochastic duel model for guerrilla war

This paper discusses a stochastic duel model between two forces. On one side are the guerrilla (or terrorists), and on the other an organized force of some sort. The model is called guerrilla war. The guerrilla side has a number of advantages such as choice of location and time of engagement, concealment by topography, observation of the intended target, and line of fire. We represent these advantages in what we believe is a realistic scenario of a duel between the guerrilla force and the organized force. By the four suppositions coinciding with the practical duel background, the paper deduces the formulas for calculating the winning probabilities for the both sides.     

MATADOR: An Analytic Model of a Stochastic Tank Due

By constructing an analytic model of a stochastic tank duel, this paper provides a means for evaluating a number of key performance characteristics of duelling tanks. The model explicitly represents target detection and the time taken to acquire a target and fire, or reload and fire. Additionally, tacticalmanoeuvre and kill probabilities are included. The probability of each possible outcome of such a duel is derived as output from the model.     

A mathematical analysis of badminton scoring systems

The International Badminton Federation recently introduced rule changes to make the game faster and more entertaining, by influencing how players score points and win games. We assess the fairness of both systems by applying combinatorics, probability theory and simulation to extrapolate known probabilities of winning individual rallies into probabilities of winning games and matches. We also measure how effective the rule changes are by comparing the numbers of rallies per game and the scoring patterns within each game, using data from the 2006 Commonwealth Games to demonstrate our results. We then develop subjective Bayesian methods for specifying the probabilities of winning. Finally, we describe how to propagate this information with observed data to determine posterior predictive distributions that enable us to predict match outcomes before and during play.     

Stochastic analysis of transit systems

This paper presents two mathematical models representing on surface transit systems with general failure, towing and repair time distributions. The stochastic analysis is performed with the aid of the regeneration point technique. Laplace transforms of the state probabilities are obtained. A number of general formulas are developed for the transit system steady-state availability when one of the system transition rates is described by the Erlangian probability density function. Various plots of transit system steady-state availability are shown.     

Analysis and characterization of surface topographies with the theory of Markov processes

For the characterization of surface height profiles we present a new stochastic approach which is based on the theory of Markov processes. With this analysis we achieve a characterization of the complexity of the surface roughness by means of a Fokker-Planck or Langevin equation, providing the complete stochastic information of multiscale joint probabilities. Furthermore, this approach allows the reconstruction of topographies with given stochastic properties. Estimations for the parameters of the Fokker-Planck equation are based on pure, parameter free data analysis. (© 2005 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Probability of Winning at Tennis I. Theory and Data

The probability of winning a game, a set, and a match in tennis are computed, based on each player's probability of winning a point on serve, which we assume are independent identically distributed (iid) random variables. Both two out of three and three out of five set matches are considered, allowing a 13-point tiebreaker in each set, if necessary. As a by-product of these formulas, we give an explicit proof that the probability of winning a set, and hence a match, is independent of which player serves first. Then, the probability of each player winning a 128-player tournament is calculated. Data from the 2002 U.S. Open and Wimbledon tournaments are used both to validate the theory as well as to show how predictions can be made regarding the ultimate tournament champion. We finish with a brief discussion of evidence for non-iid effects in tennis, and indicate how one could extend the current theory to incorporate such features.     

Generalized Gambler’s Ruin Problem: Explicit Formulas via Siegmund Duality

We give explicit formulas for ruin probabilities in a multidimensional Generalized Gambler’s ruin problem. The generalization is best interpreted as a game of one player against d other players, allowing arbitrary winning and losing probabilities (including ties) depending on the current fortune with particular player. It includes many previous other generalizations as special cases. Instead of usually utilized first-step-like analysis we involve dualities between Markov chains. We give general procedure for solving ruin-like problems utilizing Siegmund duality in Markov chains for partially ordered state spaces studied recently in context of Möbius monotonicity.