谚语背后的概率问题

谚语以其短小精炼而为人熟知,有些谚语背后隐藏着一些概率论的知识.对一些谚语,从概率论的角度进行解释,以扩大对于概率论在生活中的体现的认识,增加学习概率论的兴趣,并加深概率论在生活中应用的理解.     

概率论思维及其智力品质的培养

概率论思维是人脑和概率论研究对象交互作用并按照一般思维规律认识概率论内容的内在理性活动.它具有随机性、概括性、问题性、辐射性、指向性和创造性.提高概率论思维的效率及质量,必须从构筑知识平台,加强应用训练及强化批判意识等方面全面注意概率论思维智力品质的培养.     

概率论课程中蕴含的数学文化

数学文化是概率论课程的重要组成部分,因此在概率论课程教学中非常有必要展示所蕴含的数学文化,才能使概率论课程教学在培养学生的工程数学学习与应用技能的同时,又能形成良好的数学思维与素养.从概率论的发展历程、概率论的数学思想与方法,概率实际应用案例等几方面阐明概率论中蕴含的数学文化.概率论课程教学与数学文化的融合能够解读枯燥的概率知识,降低概率知识的抽象性,用数学文化自身的魅力吸引学生,培养学生的创新应用等综合素质.     

从投掷问题到概率论的创立

点数问题的解决是概率论创立的标志.该问题最终由帕斯卡和费马圆满解决,正是这些新思想奠定了概率论基础.惠更斯的<论赌博中的计算>第一次把概率论建立在公理、命题和问题上而构成较完整的理论体系.     

树指标m重Markov链转移矩阵的一个强极限定理

树模型近年来已引起物理学、概率论及信息论界的广泛兴趣.树指标随机过程已成为近年来发展起来的概率论的研究方向之一.在概率论的发展过程中,对强极限定理的研究一直占重要地位,强极限定理也一直是国际概率论界研究的中心课题之一.本文通过构造非负鞅,利用鞅论研究给出了非齐次树指标m重连续状态马氏链转移矩阵的一个强极限定理.     

浅谈在“概率论”教学中培养学生学习的兴趣

<正> 概率论的思想方法已经渗透到自然科学和社会科学的许多领域。应用范围相当广泛,对于初学者来讲,常常感到概率论的基本概念难懂、习题难做、方法难掌握。“三难”就产生了一个“怕”字,教学若再不得法,学生就会失去学好的信心,使原来没有兴趣的引不起兴趣,使原来有兴趣的失去兴趣,当然不能提高教学质量。高等工科学校开设概率论这门课目的是掌握概率论的基本知识和概率论的思想方法,从     

新加坡概率论会议将于1989年举行

1989年6月8日到16日将在新加坡国立大学举行概率论会议。欢迎我国概率论学者参加会议,接受概率论各个领域的论文,有关事宜请向会议组织委员会查询.通讯地址:Singarpore Probability Conference,Department of Mathematics,National University of     

谈案例教学法在概率论与数理统计教学中的应用

为了提高学生对概率论与数理统计知识的实际运用能力,针对概率论与数理统计学科特点,选取了几个教学案例,探讨了案例教学在这门学科教学中的优势和作用.本文着重从案例教学的思想来研究如何加强概率论与数理统计课程的应用性教学.     

概率论与数理统计丛书编辑委员会成立

随着科学技术和经济建设的发展,概率论与数理统计已渗透到自然科学、社会科学、国民经济的各个领域之中,为反映我国科研的成就,加快概率论、数理统计的普及和应用,以适应国民经济发展的需要,中国概率统计学会决定有计划有步骤地组织编写一套概率论与数理统计丛书,并组织概率论丛书编辑委员会负责这一工作. 丛书的编写方针为:     

《概率论与数理统计》教学改革研究

针对概率论与数理统计课程的特点,以经济管理类专业的学生为对象,提出了概率论与数理统计课程教学改革的几点建议．     

Semiclassical analysis of pair creation in de Sitter space

We study a massive scalar field theory in de Sitter space. Using a worldline instanton approach, we calculate the pair creation probability in the weak-field limit. In addition to the exponential factor, we derive the pre-exponential factor. In this method, the pair creation probability for an odd-dimensional space vanishes. We find the leading contribution to the two-point correlator in the φ³ theory.     

Non-Archimedean Probability

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned probability zero (in other words: the probability functions are regular). We use a non-Archimedean field as the range of the probability function. As a result, the property of countable additivity in Kolmogorov’s axiomatization of probability is replaced by a different type of infinite additivity.     

生物种群在污染环境中的生灭过程

建立了生物种群在污染环境中的一个线性生灭过程模型.利用马尔可夫过程的理论和方法,得到生物种群数量变化的概率分布,最后讨论了各模型参数的变化对生物种群生存的影响.     

多服务台服务同一顾客的M/M/m+k/N可修排队系统

研究带有备用服务台的可修排队系统,假设多个服务台可同时服务同一顾客,利用马尔可夫过程理论建立了系统稳态方程组,然后利用分块矩阵的解法求出系统稳态概率的矩阵解,在此基础上建立系统的费用模型,并利用Matlab软件进行数值实例分析.     

Tomography of Spin States, the Entanglement Criterion, and Bell's Inequalities

We review the method of spin tomography of quantum states in which we use the standard probability distribution functions to describe spin projections on selected directions, which provides the same information about states as is obtained by the density matrix method. In this approach, we show that satisfaction or violation of Bell's inequalities can be understood as properties of tomographic functions for joint probability distributions for two spins. We compare results obtained using the methods of classical probability theory with those obtained in the framework of traditional quantum mechanics. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 146, No. 1, pp. 172–185, January, 2006.     

数轴在概率论中的运用

本文通过分析概率论的特点以及教学和学生学习中的一些问题,提出了在概率论教学中利用数轴解题的技巧和使用方法,并通过实例加以说明。     

Reliability analysis in uncertain random system

Reliability analysis of a system based on probability theory has been widely studied and used. Nevertheless, it sometimes meets with one problem that the components of a system may have only few or even no samples, so that we cannot estimate their probability distributions via statistics. Then reliability analysis of a system based on uncertainty theory has been proposed. However, in a general system, some components of the system may have enough samples while some others may have no samples, so the reliability of the system cannot be analyzed simply based on probability theory or uncertainty theory. In order to deal with this type systems, this paper proposes a method of reliability analysis based on chance theory which is a generalization of both probability theory and uncertainty theory. In order to illustrate the method, some common systems are considered such as series system, parallel system, k-out-of-n system and bridge system.     

Schrödinger’s cat

We show that the classical framework of probability spaces, which does not admit a model-theoretical treatment, is equivalent to that of probability algebras, which does. We prove that the category of probability algebras is a stable cat, where non-dividing coincides with the ordinary notion of independence used in probability theory.     

A definition of subjective possibility

Based on the setting of exchangeable bets, this paper proposes a subjectivist view of numerical possibility theory. It relies on the assumption that when an agent constructs a probability measure by assigning prices to lotteries, this probability measure is actually induced by a belief function representing the agent’s actual state of knowledge. We also assume that the probability measure proposed by the agent in the course of the elicitation procedure is constructed via the so-called pignistic transformation (mathematically equivalent to the Shapley value in game theory). We pose and solve the problem of finding the least informative belief function having a given pignistic probability. We prove that it is unique and consonant, thus induced by a possibility distribution. This result exploits a simple informational ordering, in agreement with partial orderings between belief functions, comparing their information content. The obtained possibility distribution is subjective in the same sense as in the subjectivist school in probability theory. However, we claim that it is the least biased representation of the agent’s state of knowledge compatible with the observed betting behaviour.     

主特征值估计的新故事

本文介绍主特征值估计的两种通用方法，着重于两个侧面：来自黎曼几何的第一种方法如何应用于概率论；来自概率论的第二种方法如何应用于黎曼几何。此外，还将概述若干基本结果。