小波分析方法在金融股票数据预测中的应用

利用小波分析预测方法对金融数据—股票收盘价这一典型的非平稳时间序列进行预测.使用M a llat小波分解算法对数据进行分解,对分解后的数据进行平滑处理,然后再进行重构,而重构之后的数据就成为近似意义的平稳时间序列,这样就得到了原始数据的近似信号,再应用传统时间序列预测方法对重构后的数据进行预测,将预测结果与实际值,以及和传统预测方法预测结果比较,小波分析方法预测效果更为理想.     

在预报更新的环境下具有两种配送方式的供应链模型

本文研究在预报更新环境下具有快、慢两种配送方式和需求预报更新的库存系统，为了得到更多关于费用参数和预报改进对最优定货量以及最优的平均费用的影响，我们考虑两个周期的情形．以动态规划为工具我们得到了系统的最优策略．对于需求预报服从均匀分布情形，本文得到了最优定货量和最优的平均总费用的精确表达式．我们通过一些数值例子来说明库存费用、罚金、需求的预报改进和预报误差对最优定货量和最优的     

基于粗集理论的组合预测法在无形资产评估中的应用

针对如何评估企业无形资产的问题,运用基于粗集理论的组合预测方法,建立了企业无形资产评估的数量模型。该模型的特点是将组合预测方法中权系数的确定问题转化为粗集理论中的属性重要性评价问题,这样就在很大程度上克服了传统组合预测方法中权系数确定主观性太大的缺陷,而使得权系数的确定更具客观性。最后,结合实例阐述了基于粗集理论的组合预测方法在企业无形资产评估中的应用,进一步说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Assessing Earthquake Forecast Performance Based on b Value in Yunnan Province,China

Many studies have shown that b values tend to decrease prior to large earthquakes. To evaluate the forecast information in b value variations, we conduct a systematic assessment in Yunnan Province, China, where the seismicity is intense and moderate–large earthquakes occur frequently. The catalog in the past two decades is divided into four time periods (January 2000–December 2004, January 2005–December 2009, January 2010–December 2014, and January 2015–December 2019). The spatial b values are calculated for each 5-year span and then are used to forecast moderate-large earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in the subsequent period. As the fault systems in Yunnan Province are complex, to avoid possible biases in b value computation caused by different faulting regimes when using the grid search, the hierarchical space–time point-process models (HIST-PPM) proposed by Ogata are utilized to estimate spatial b values in this study. The forecast performance is tested by Molchan error diagram (MED) and the efficiency is quantified by probability gain (PG) and probability difference (PD). It is found that moderate–large earthquakes are more likely to occur in low b regions. The MED analysis shows that there is considerable precursory information in spatial b values and the forecast efficiency increases with magnitude in the Yunnan Province. These results suggest that the b value might be useful in middle- and long-term earthquake forecasts in the study area.     

Preparation of a two-state mixture of ultracold fermionic atoms with balanced population subject to the unstable magnetic field

We report a novel method to prepare a mixture of ~(40)K Fermi gas having an equal population of the two ground magnetic spin states confined in an optical dipole trap, in the presence of an noisy quantization(magnetic) field. We realize the equal population mixture by applying a series of RF pulses. We observe the dependence of the population distribution between two spin states on the number of the applied RF pulses and find that the decoherence effects leading to the population fluctuations are overcome by the high number of RF pules. Our demonstrated technique can be potentially used in the precision measurement experiments with ultracold gases in noisy environments.     

频域反射法光纤延时精密测量

本文提出了一种应用于光纤延时系统中实现光纤延时精密测量的新方法,用以提高光纤延时测量的精度和准确性.该方法以1064 nm激光调制信号作为光源,通过测量回波信号的幅值和相位信息得到被测通道的频率响应,采用快速傅里叶逆变换得到被测目标的延时信息,实现光纤延时测量.本文通过理论分析和延时测量实验对频域反射法与传统的时域测量方法进行对比,使用频域反射法在调制频率范围10—200 MHz,采样频率间隔0.5 MHz的实验条件下,实现了3.3 ps延时测量分辨率,并证明了该方法具有比时域方法更高的测量精度,测量结果的准确性更好.     

绿色环保化学机械抛光液的研究进展

原子级加工制造是实现半导体晶圆原子尺度超光滑表面的有效途径.作为大尺寸高精密功能材料的原子级表面制造的重要加工手段之一,化学机械抛光(chemical mechanical polishing,CMP)凭借化学腐蚀和机械磨削的耦合协同作用,成为实现先进材料或器件超光滑无损伤表面平坦化加工的关键技术,在航空、航天、微电子等众多领域得到了广泛应用.然而,为了实现原子层级超滑表面的制备,CMP工艺中常采用的化学腐蚀和机械磨削方法需要使用具有强烈腐蚀性和高毒性的危险化学品,对生态系统产生了不可逆转的危害.因此,本文以绿色环保高性能抛光液作为对象,对加工原子量级表面所采用的化学添加剂进行分类总结,详尽分析在CMP过程中化学添加剂对材料表面性质调制的作用机理,为在原子级尺度下改善表面性质提供可参考的依据.最后,提出了CMP抛光液在原子级加工研究中面临的挑战,并对未来抛光液发展方向作出了展望,这对原子尺度表面精度的进一步提升具有深远的现实意义.     

基于轴角转换器的一种高精度动态测角系统

设计了一种基于轴角转换器AD2S80的高精度感应同步器动态测角系统，分析了测角误差产生原因，提出了误差调整和补偿措施。通过实例数据表明：用谐波分析的方法对测角误差进行了调整与补偿，从而可大幅度提高测角精度。     

A study of the precision and accuracy of peak quantification in comprehensive two-dimensional liquid chromatography in time

Simulated chromatographic data were used to determine the precision and accuracy in the estimation of peak volumes (i.e., peak sizes) in comprehensive two-dimensional liquid chromatography in time (LC × LC). Peak volumes were determined both by summing the areas in the second dimension chromatograms and by fitting the second dimension areas to a Gaussian peak. The Gaussian method is better at predicting the peak volume than the moments method provided there are at least three second dimension injections above the limit of detection (LOD). However, when only two of the second dimension signals are substantially above baseline, the accuracy and precision of the Gaussian fit method become quite poor because the results from the fitting algorithm become indeterminate. Based on simulations in which the modulation ratio (M_R = 4¹σ/t_s) and sampling phase (?) were varied, we conclude for well-resolved peaks that the optimum precision in peak volumes in 2D separations will be obtained when the M_R is between two and five, such that there are typically four to ten second dimension peaks recorded over the eight σ width of the first dimension peak. This sampling rate is similar to that suggested by the Murphy–Schure–Foley criterion. This provides an RSD of approximately 2% for the signal-to-noise ratio used in the present simulations. The precision of the peak volume of experimental data was also assessed, and RSD values were in the range of 4–5%. We conclude that the poorer precision found in the LC × LC experimental data as compared to LC may be due to experimental imprecision in sampling the effluent from the first dimension column.     

Determining the optimum wavelength pairs to use for molecular absorption thermometry based on the continuous-spectral lower-state energy

A novel technique for selecting wavelengths that optimize the temperature precision of absorption-based thermometry is developed. A single universal objective function considering continuous spectral lower-state energy , spectral absorbance intensities and an experimental noise level is derived and applied in a brute-force approach to analyze two-wavelength, Doppler-broadened H₂O vapor-absorbance thermometry in the 1.33-1.37 μm range. The results reveal the top wavelength pairs and their temperature precisions over a wide temperature range from 280 to 2800 K. Although the spectral database used includes over thousands of transitions in this spectral range, the top pairs are composed of only 12 unique wavelengths. This wavelength selection technique is able to help researchers choose key wavelengths that will perform well in practical applications.