Estimating Functions for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This paper discusses the problem of estimation for two classes of nonlinear models, namely random coefficient autoregressive (RCA) and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models. For the RCA model, first assuming that the nuisance parameters are known we construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's asymptotically optimal estimating function. Then, using the conditional least squares (CLS) estimator given by Tjøstheim (1986, Stochastic Process. Appl., 21, 251–273) and classical moment estimators for the nuisance parameters, we propose an estimated version of this estimator. These results are extended to the case of vector parameter. Next, we turn to discuss the problem of estimating the ARCH model with unknown parameter vector. We construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's optimal estimator allowing that a part of the estimator depends on unknown parameters. Then, substituting the CLS estimators for the unknown parameters, the estimated version is proposed. Comparisons between the CLS and estimated optimal estimator of the RCA model and between the CLS and estimated version of the ARCH model are given via simulation studies.     

线性模型中加权混合估计相对于最小二乘估计的两种相对效率

本文提出了线性模型中加权混合估计相对于最小二乘估计的两种相对效率,并给出了这些相对效率的上下界.     

平衡数据结构下ANOVA 估计和SD 估计的比较

在线性混合效应模型下, 方差分析(ANOVA) 估计和谱分解(SD) 估计对构造精确检验和广义P-值枢轴量起着非常重要的作用. 尽管这两估计分别基于不同的方法, 但它们共享许多类似的优点, 如无偏性和有精确的表达式等. 本文借助于已得到的协方差阵的谱分解结果, 揭示了平衡数据一般线性混合效应模型下ANOVA 估计与SD 估计的关系, 并分别针对协方差阵两种结构: 套结构和多项分类随机效应结构, 给出了ANOVA 估计与SD 估计等价的充分必要条件.     

不等式约束条件下部分线性回归模型的参数估计

本文研究了不等式约束条件下部分线性回归模型的参数估计问题，利用最优化方法和贝叶斯方法，给出了不等式约束条件下部分线性回归模型的最小二乘核估计和最佳贝叶斯估计，并且证明了在一定条件下，带约束条件的最小二乘核估计在均方误差意义下要优于无约束条件的最小二乘核估计。     

测量误差模型的自适应LASSO变量选择方法研究

本文研究测量误差模型的自适应LASSO(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator)变量选择和系数估计问题.首先分别给出协变量有测量误差时的线性模型和部分线性模型自适应LASSO参数估计量,在一些正则条件下研究估计量的渐近性质,并且证明选择合适的调整参数,自适应LASSO参数估计量具有oracle性质.其次讨论估计的实现算法及惩罚参数和光滑参数的选择问题.最后通过模拟和一个实际数据分析研究了自适应LASSO变量选择方法的表现,结果表明,变量选择和参数估计效果良好.     

Group-specific stochastic production frontier models with parametric specifications

This paper develops a stochastic frontier model that not only focuses more on group-specific temporal variations in technical efficiency rather than individual temporal variations, but also allows for a parametric function of the time-varying coefficient of the efficiency factor. We derived the concentrated least squares estimator and its asymptotic properties. When applied to the Penn World data set, the group-specific models yield much more variation in the temporal patterns of efficiency across countries. This application demonstrates the feasibility of applying a group-specific stochastic frontier model with a parametric function of temporal pattern to a real empirical analysis.     

The superiorities of bayes linear unbiased estimator in multivariate linear models

In this article,the Bayes linear unbiased estimator (BALUE) of parameters is derived for the multivariate linear models.The superiorities of the BALUE over the least square estimator (LSE) is studied in terms of the mean square error matrix (MSEM) criterion and Bayesian Pitman closeness (PC) criterion.     

Frontier estimation with local polynomials and high power-transformed data

We present a new method for estimating the frontier of a sample. The estimator is based on a local polynomial regression on the power-transformed data. We assume that the exponent of the transformation goes to infinity while the bandwidth goes to zero. We give conditions on these two parameters for obtaining almost complete convergence. The asymptotic conditional bias and variance of the estimator are provided and its good performance is illustrated for some finite sample situations.     

基于局部多项式展开的多元非参数模型贝叶斯带宽选择

在多元非参数模型中带宽和阶的选择对局部多项式估计量的表现十分重要。本文基于交叉验证准则提出一个自适应贝叶斯带宽选择方法。在给定的误差密度函数下,该方法可推导出对应的似然函数,并构造带宽参数的后验密度函数。随后,通过带宽的后验期望可同时获得阶和带宽的估计。数值模拟的结果表明,该方法不仅比大拇指准则方法精确,且比交叉验证方法耗时更少。与此同时,与Nadaraya-Watson估计相比,所提带宽选择方法对多元非参数模型的适应性要更好。最后,本文通过一组实际数据说明有限样本下所提贝叶斯带宽选择的表现很好。     

The interval efficiency based on the optimistic and pessimistic points of view

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a data-oriented approach for evaluating the performances of a set of peer entities called decision-making units (DMUs), whose performance is determined based on multiple measures. The traditional DEA, which is based on the concept of efficiency frontier (output frontier), determines the best efficiency score that can be assigned to each DMU. Based on these scores, DMUs are classified into DEA-efficient (optimistic efficient) or DEA-non-efficient (optimistic non-efficient) units, and the DEA-efficient DMUs determine the efficiency frontier. There is a comparable approach which uses the concept of inefficiency frontier (input frontier) for determining the worst relative efficiency score that can be assigned to each DMU. DMUs on the inefficiency frontier are specified as DEA-inefficient or pessimistic inefficient, and those that do not lie on the inefficient frontier, are declared to be DEA-non-inefficient or pessimistic non-inefficient. In this paper, we argue that both relative efficiencies should be considered simultaneously, and any approach that considers only one of them will be biased. For measuring the overall performance of the DMUs, we propose to integrate both efficiencies in the form of an interval, and we call the proposed DEA models for efficiency measurement the bounded DEA models. In this way, the efficiency interval provides the decision maker with all the possible values of efficiency, which reflect various perspectives. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed DEA models.     

线性模型中的一类随机约束$s$--$K$估计

In this paper, we propose a stochastic restricted s–K estimator in the linear model with additional stochastic linear restrictions by combining the ordinary mixed estimator(OME) with the s–K estimator. It is shown that the proposed estimator is superior to the OME and the s–K estimator under the mean squared error matrix criterion under some conditions. Finally, a numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are given to verify the theoretical results.     

拟似然非线性模型中MQLE的弱相合性的充分条件

拟似然非线性模型包括广义线性模型作为一个特殊情形.给出了拟似然非线性模型中极大拟似然估计的弱相合性的一些充分条件,其中矩的条件要弱于文献中极大拟似然估计的强相合性的条件.     

Simultaneous Estimation of Several Stratum Means under Error-in-Variables Superpopulation Models

This paper considers simultaneous estimation of means from several strata under error-in-variables superpopulation models. Necessary and sufficient conditions for an estimator to be admissible in the class of linear estimators are obtained.     

Statistical analysis of hierarchical stochastic models: Examples and approaches

This paper introduces and illustrates the concept of hierarchical or random parameter stochastic process models. These models arise when members of a population each generate a stochastic process governed by certain parameters and the values of the parameters may be viewed as single realizations of random variables. The paper treats the estimation of the individual parameter values and the parameters of the superpopulation distribution. Examples from system reliability, pharmacokinetic compartment models, and criminal careers are introduced; a reliability (Poisson process-exponential interval) process is examined in greater detail. An explicit, approximate, robust estimator of individual (log) failure rates is presented for the case of a long-tailed (Studentt) superpopulation. This estimator exhibits desirable limited shrinkage properties, refusing to borrow unjustified strength. Numerical properties of such estimators are described more fully elsewhere.     

Asymptotic efficiency of ridge estimator in linear and semiparametric linear models

The linear model with a growing number of predictors arises in many contemporary scientific endeavor. In this article, we consider the commonly used ridge estimator in linear models. We propose analyzing the ridge estimator for a finite sample size n and a growing dimension p. The existence and asymptotic normality of the ridge estimator are established under some regularity conditions when p→∞. It also occurs that a strictly linear model is inadequate when some of the relations are believed to be of certain linear form while others are not easily parameterized, and thus a semiparametric partial linear model is considered. For these semiparametric partial linear models with p>n, we develop a procedure to estimate the linear coefficients as if the nonparametric part is not present. The asymptotic efficiency of the proposed estimator for the linear component is studied for p→∞. It is shown that the proposed estimator of the linear component asymptotically performs very well.     

分数布朗运动随机微分方程的MLE和Bayes估计的大偏差不等式

本文研究了分数布朗运动随机微分方程未知参数的极大似然估计和Bayes估计的偏差不等式.在一定的正则条件下.利用似然方法给出了这两个估计量的大偏差不等式.     

利用样本分位数的Logistic总体分布参数的近似最佳线性无偏估计

Harter H_L.,Balakrishnan N.等先后讨论了Logistic总体分布参数的极大似然估计,近似极大似然估计;其后Ogawa J.,Lloyd E.H.,Kulldorff G.,Gupta S.S,及chan L.K. 等又先后讨论了Logistlic分布参数的最佳线性无偏估计及估计的相对效率等问题.令人遗憾的是:在大样本情形下,上述估计均难以求得.为缓解这一困难,本文讨论利用样本分位数的Logistic总体的近似最佳线性无偏估计,给出估计量的大样本性质,以及样本分位数不超过10情形下,估计量有渐近最大相对估计效率时样本分位数的选取方案等.     

Consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models with random regressors

This paper proposes some regularity conditions, which result in the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum quasi-likelihood estimator （MQLE） in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） with random regressors. The asymptotic results of generalized linear models （GLM） with random regressors are generalized to QLNM with random regressors.     

回归系数的混合估计与最小二乘估计的两种相对效率

本文研究了线性回归模型中,回归系数的混合估计与最小二乘估计的相对效率,利用矩阵的相关性质和运算,导出了两者之间两种新的相对效率的上下界.     

包含多余回归变量的错误指定模型的随机约束Liu估计

对由于包含多余回归自变量而导致的错误指定线性回归模型,本文导出了回归系数的最小二乘估计,普通混合估计以及随机约束Liu估计,并在均方误差矩阵准则下对这三个估计的优良性进行了比较,给出了随机约束Liu估计优于最小二乘估计和普通混合估计的充要条件.此外,对它们所对应的经典预测值的优良性也进行了讨论.