Revenue recycling of a CO2 tax: Results from a general equilibrium model for Switzerland

This paper combines a recent proposal by the Swiss government for a CO₂ tax with a policy that uses the tax revenues to lower the pre-existing marginal labor income tax rates, and examines the efficiency and distribution effects of such a revenue recycling policy. The investigation, based on a large-scale general equilibrium model, contrary to other studies, indicates that an environmental tax reform involves negative gross cost, that is, increases welfare even when environmental benefits are not accounted for. The simulation results further show that the adverse distributional effects of a pure CO₂ tax are neutralized or even reversed when tax revenues finance cuts of existing taxes.We thank Tom Rutherford, Reto Schleiniger and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Financial support by the Federal Agency for Energy under the SOEFF program is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent the opinions of the granting agency.     

基于时间序列法的国税月度收入预测模型研究

研究了基于时间序列方法的国税月度收入预测. 通过采用Box-Jenkins的ARIMA模型, 结合国税月度收入数据, 分析并提出了一套针对月度税收收入的预测研究框架, 包括对税收预测模型的拟合、检验、预测、评价、动态修正等主要环节的处理方法. 在该研究框架的指导下, 以增值税、海关代征税和营业税为例, 对2006年各月的税收收入进行了模拟预测, 月度税收收入预测的平均相对误差分别控制在5.47\%, 8.63\%和2.37\%. 最后给出了在实际应用中动态修正税收预测模型的建议, 并简要讨论了时间序列方法在税收预测中面临的问题.     

财政腐败的宏观经济分析:一个理论框架

建立了一个考虑税收腐败和公共支出腐败的经济增长模型,从理论上探讨财政腐败行为及其影响.主要结论归纳:第一,财政腐败降低私人资本的回报率,使厂商的生产力下降,就整体而言阻碍了经济增长.第二,最优税率可能大于或小于Barro的最优税率,取决于征税效率和寻租引发的行政成本,第三,两种类型的公共支出隐含着不同程度的腐败机会,以...     

个人所得税制度对收入分配效应的测度方法—基于收入分布函数的思路

针对微观数据缺乏的情况,借助位置-尺度分布族、截尾分布等统计概念与性质,提出了基于收入随机变量、分布函数的个人所得税制度对收入差距影响效应的测度方法.方法适用于微观调查数据,也适用于收入分组数据.作为应用,将该方法用于2008-2010年我国个人所得税制度对收入分配影响效应的定量分析.结果表明:个人所得税制度使收入差距的扩大趋势得到抑制,基本符合居民之间的税负公平原则.但随着城镇居民收入的增长,既定个人所得税制度优化收入分配结构的能力逐年减弱,免税额和应税区间的改革具有合理性.     

工薪类个税征收标准对调节居民收入分配作用的统计分析

个人所得税一直是中国老百姓最关注的话题之一,2011年个税征收标准改革的问题再次引起大家的关注,主要焦点集中在工资、薪金类的个税征收的起征点和累进税率。本文选择2001至2010年31个省份的19行业的平均工资为基础数据,运用SPSS统计分析软件分别按省份和行业作为因子对税前和税后的平均工资做方差分析,利用假设检验的P值构造统计量,定义了调节比和调节得分两个评价指标,用这两个指标衡量个人所得税征收标准对缩小工资差距的效用。本文中该模型把个税征收标准对调节居民收入分配的效果数量化,通过得分指标的变动说明过去两次个税征收标准调整的必要性以及今年审议的第四套个人所得税征收标准草案的优劣。还可以通过该模型构建的指标对某套个人所得税的征收标准是否适应当前经济发展需要起到参考作用。     

浅析老龄经济中的税收政策

本文放宽人口结构平稳假设,将总人口增长率与劳动人口增长率之差定义为老龄化率,在此基础上构建老龄经济模型,分析税收政策对老龄经济的影响。基于一定假设,老龄经济存在鞍型收敛路径,平衡增长路径上的人均收入增长率取决于技术进步率与老龄化率之差,技术进步率在积极应对人口老龄化方面至关重要。从税收角度看,资产收入税与企业利润税对老龄经济的扭曲程度较高,而劳动收入税与消费税的扭曲程度相对较低。通过削减政府支出与调整税收结构,减税不仅可以提高均衡的资本水平,若能够激励经济主体积极创新,还将会提高平衡路径上人均收入的增长速度。一定条件下,老龄经济中将会存在正的最优税率。     

纳税最优的工资奖金分配方案研究

根据我国现行的税法,个人所得税纳税采用九级累进税率.年工资和年终奖在速算扣除数个数上存在不同,使得对于相同的税前年收入,如果采用不同的年工资和年终奖分配方案会产生不同的税后实际所得.通过简化变量和缩小有效解区域,以及一系列严格的数学推导,得到了任意年收入下,月工资和年终奖的最优分配方案,使得在现有税制下,纳税额最小,税后收入最大.这个最优方案避免了税金负效应现象,保证了纳税公平性,有利于国家税务监管,企业员工薪金分配和个人纳税筹划;具有广阔的应用前景.     

“公司+农户”型订单农业供应链的政府税收补贴机制

基于“公司+农户”型订单农业背景,引入“随行就市,保底收购”的合约价格方式并考虑农产品流通中的数量损耗,探究了政府向公司征税并将税收收入补贴给农户对于订单农业供应链决策及运作的影响。首先,在政府对农户的补贴系数外生时,以政府征税不补贴为基准模型,对比分析了政府征税不补贴和征税补贴两种情形下的均衡结果,发现:若公司对农产品深加工,则进项税率小于销项税率,政府对农户进行税收补贴,可激励农户提高生产量并促使公司降低保底价格,进而增加双方期望收益,即征税补贴是征税不补贴的帕累托改善;若公司对农产品初加工,进项税率等于销项税率,则税收补贴带来的收益全部被公司利用其强势地位所攫取,单纯的税收补贴难以实现农户增产增收的目的。随后,在政府补贴系数内生时,证明了深加工情形下存在唯一最优的税收补贴系数使得政府社会福利最大化,且最优的税收补贴系数随各参数的变化存在上下界。最后,引入数值算例验证了上述结论,同时发现,深加工情形下政府决策的最优税收补贴系数随流通损耗率的增加而减小,随销项税率和供应链边际利润率的增大而增大;社会福利和公司的期望收益对流通损耗率的变化较之农户的期望收益对其变化更为敏感。     

Decision model and analysis for investment interest expense deduction and allocation

Investment income tax planning requires informed, strategic choices. One must determine the amount of qualified dividends and net long-term capital gain to be included in investment income (against which investment interest expense can be deducted). This choice also determines the residual qualified dividends and net long-term capital gain which enjoy a reduced tax rate. Another important decision is whether all or some of this interest expense should be deducted in the current year or carried forward. This paper puts forward a new approach to formulate these questions as a generalized resource allocation problem which permits analysis of the interdependence between, and the tax consequences of, the above decisions. The commonly used approach – deducting investment interest expense sooner rather than later – we consider myopic since the benefit of deferring some of the deduction is not leveraged. Presented here is a tax planning guideline (a necessary and sufficient condition for optimality) to realize a more forward-looking strategy. We also show that, for certain income structures, the tax savings by deducting a one-dollar investment interest expense may be more than the tax rate on the dollar of investment income that is offset.     

Initial basis for a national planning model

Analysis of pending national policy takes on greater importance each day to supply policy makers with much needed data on the overall economic effect such policies will have on total employment, income, output, tax revenues, and the general price level throughout the economy. This short paper examines the potential for integration of existing modeling technology into a meaningful national planning model to provide a sound set of economic indices leading to enhanced market efficiency and resource use. Initial efforts at integrated modeling and analysis are described, together with indications of their levels of success in replicating the existing economic environment. Emphasis is placed on determination of shadow prices in a growing economy and their incorporation into the systematic development of a national planning model.     

The optimal progressive income tax: The existence and the limit tax rates

The purpose of this paper is to consider the problem of optimal income taxation in the domain of a progressive (convex) income tax function. This paper proves the existence of an optimal tax function and proves that the optimal marginal and average tax rates tend asymptotically to 100 percent as the income level becomes arbitrarily high.     

Mathematical models for organizing the tax service

Game-theoretical models are proposed for describing the interaction of tax inspectors and taxpayers. A return-auditing probability that maximizes net tax revenue is calculated for a model without corruption. A dynamic audit strategy is described, and it is shown to converge to the optimal model under complete information. For a model with corruption, we also calculate the optimal probability of secondary audit and carry out a comparative analysis of net tax revenue assuming various tax rates and various penalties for evasion and negligent audit. The study was partially supported by the Russian Program for Economic Studies (grant 97-3011) and Russian Foundation of Basic Research (grant 96-01-0999). Useful comments by Mikhail Alekseev, Jim Leitzel, and Francisco Marhuenda are acknowledged. Translated from Chislennye Metody i Vychislitel'nyi Eksperiment, Moscow State University, pp. 64–81, 1998.     

Optimal Tax Enforcement with Imperfect Tax Payers and Inspectors

A mathematical model of tax enforcement is analyzed for the case when the probability of detecting tax evasion depends on the inspector's efforts. Contrary to the case with fixed inspection costs, the optimal tax enforcement strategy does not fully eliminate tax evasion. We examine how tax payers' random mistakes and the inspectors' corruptibility affect the optimal tax enforcement mechanism. We show that, contrary to the model with fixed inspection costs, corruption among inspectors reduces the optimal tax revenue.     

Optimal income taxation with discrete skill distribution

This paper studies the pattern of the optimal marginal income tax rates in a discrete model allowing all forms of individual skill distribution. It derives an explicit solution to the optimal marginal income tax rates in terms of the parameters of the model, and then rigorously shows the optimal marginal tax rate can be U-shaped, inverse U-shaped, strictly increasing, or strictly decreasing in the interior of skill levels, depending crucially on skill distribution. The numerical examples indicate that the optimal marginal tax rates can be W-shaped and inverse W-shaped in the interior of skill levels. The explicit solution to the optimal marginal income tax rate derived in this discrete model can be used to find optimal marginal income tax rates for an economy with any empirical skill distribution, without the need to estimate the density function of skill.     

Tax evasion and the prisoner's dilemma

This analysis expands the model of tax evasion suggested by Allingham and Sandmo (1972) to include public goods, financed by revenues from taxation and penalties. We argue that this leads to a Pareto inferior equilibrium outcome of individual declarations both in models of competitive and interdependent behaviour, thus linking the paradox to the Prisoner's Dilemma, well known from game theory. It is further claimed that a government led by utilitarian welfare standards will perpetuate tax evasion in the case of positive variable costs of detection.     

贪污量化的内生随机增长模型

从现实来看,贪污不是一种个人行为,是由于制度上的漏洞(如监管不严等)而产生的.本文假设贪污与廉政均衡模型服从通常的决策规则,试从量化的指标入手,分析了增大个体收入风险,加大惩贪震摄力、扩大公共开支的均衡关系及其对渎职、贪污行为的影响力.最后,给出关于抑制贪污依其影响力大小的措施的不同结论.     

Fiscal policy lags and income adjustment processes

The interest in the impact of fiscal policy lags on economic stability increased in the last decade. Several studies have been made on delays either in the government expenditure or in the tax system, where lags exist between the accrual and the payment of taxes. Nevertheless there is in the literature no model where time delays in government expenditures and in tax revenues are considered together as it happens in the real world. In this paper we remedied this defect and proposed a macro-dynamic model where two delays appear: the first pertains to the public expenditure, the second, to the tax revenue. The resulting system of delayed differential equations is studied qualitatively and numerically. The analysis suggests that only particular combinations of the two delays make the system stable. Prevalently the system is unstable and chaotic motions may arise. This implies that the economy may need appropriate structural changes in the public sector to improve fiscal policy outcomes in such a way they may really be consistent with their stabilization purposes.     

基于集团序的软件和信息服务业收入评估方法研究

随着中国软件和信息服务业的快速发展,如何有效地横向评估各地的产业发展状况成为摆在决策者面前的一个重要问题.基于集团排序方法,从国内各地的软件业营业收入入手,通过确定不同的级内级差得到了满意的排序结果.这一结果不仅为我国软件名城的创建提供了理论依据,也为相关研究提供了新的方法.     

随机均衡模型中的最优机制

本文基于经典的Mirrlees税收模型，建立了一个一般化的动态随机均衡模型，论证了消费者的最优资本存量和收入，以及政府的最优税收和公共花费的存在性，并得出最优收入税函数在Hilbert空间的一个闭子集上是下半连续的结论。     

RECURSIVE UTILITY,PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY

This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expenditure and optimal fiscal policy, particularly stresses the importance of factor income. First, the explicit solutions of the central planner＇s stochastic optimization problem are derived, the growth maximizing and welfare-maximizing government expenditure policies are obtained and their standing in conflict or coincidence depends upon intertemporal substitution. Second, the explicit solutions of the representative individual＇s stochastic optimization problem which permits to tax on capital income and labor income separately are derived ,and it is found that the effect of risk on growth crucially depends on the degree of risk aversion,the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the capital income share. Finally, a flexible optimal tax policy which can be internally adjusted to a certain extent is derived, and it is found that the distribution of factor income plays an important role in designing the optimal tax policy.