浅析老龄经济中的税收政策

本文放宽人口结构平稳假设,将总人口增长率与劳动人口增长率之差定义为老龄化率,在此基础上构建老龄经济模型,分析税收政策对老龄经济的影响。基于一定假设,老龄经济存在鞍型收敛路径,平衡增长路径上的人均收入增长率取决于技术进步率与老龄化率之差,技术进步率在积极应对人口老龄化方面至关重要。从税收角度看,资产收入税与企业利润税对老龄经济的扭曲程度较高,而劳动收入税与消费税的扭曲程度相对较低。通过削减政府支出与调整税收结构,减税不仅可以提高均衡的资本水平,若能够激励经济主体积极创新,还将会提高平衡路径上人均收入的增长速度。一定条件下,老龄经济中将会存在正的最优税率。

Analysis of Tax Policy in Aging Economy

Softening the stationary population structure,the aging rate is defined as the difference between the growth rates of total population and working-age population,on which we builds the aging economy model.Under certain assumptions,the aging economy will be convergent,and have the only balanced growth path.In this BGP,the output growth rate of per capita depends on the difference between the rate of technological progress and aging rate.Obviously,the he rate of technological progress is of crucial importance.From a tax perspective,the tax rates on asset income and firms' earnings will distort the economy more,while the tax rates on consumption and wage income will distort less.By cutting government expenditures and adjusting tax structure,tax reduction will not only enhance the balanced capital level,but also improve the rate of per capita income growth in the BGP if it can stimulate economic individuals to innovate actively.Under certain conditions,a positive tax rate will be conducive to the aging economy.