一类基于秩次的稳健线性回归估计与诊断方法

线性回归模型的误差项不服从正态分布或存在多个离群点时,可以将残差秩次的某些函数作为权重引入估计模型来减少离群点的不良影响。本文从参数估计、稳健性质、回归诊断等方面对基于残差秩次的一类稳健回归方法进行介绍.通过模拟研究和实例分析表明,R和GR估计是一种估计效率较高的稳健回归方法,其中GR估计可同时避免X与Y空间离群点,而高失效点HBR估计可通过控制某个参数在稳健性与估计效率之间进行折衷.     

线性模型参数的稳健化有偏估计

本文讨论复共线性和粗差同时存在时线性模型的参数估计问题,基于等价权原理提出了一个稳健有偏估计类（稳健压缩估计）,并且建立了稳健压缩估计的计算方法,为了满足实际问题的需要,构造了许多很有意义的稳健有偏估计,例如稳健岭估计、稳健主成分估计,稳健组合主成估计、稳健单参数主成分估计、稳健根方估计等等,最后通过一个算例表明,本文提出的稳健有偏估计具有既可克服复共线性影响又可抵抗粗差干扰的良好性质。     

纵向数据均值和协方差矩阵的有效稳健估计（英文）

本文提出一种针对纵向数据回归模型下的均值和协方差矩阵同时进行的有效稳健估计.基于对协方差矩阵的Cholesky分解和对模型的改写,我们提出一个加权最小二乘估计,其中权重是通过广义经验似然方法估计出来的.所提估计的有效性得益于经验似然方法的优势,稳健性则是通过限制残差平方和的上界来达到.模拟研究表明,和已有的针对纵向数据的稳健估计相比,所提估计具有更高的效率和可比的稳健性.最后,我们把所提估计方法用来分析一组实际数据.     

非参数模型的稳健跳点检测估计

非参数模型是统计学中常用的一类模型.在实际应用中,回归函数可能不是连续的,即在某些未知的位置上存在跳点.检测这些跳点对于回归函数的估计非常重要.本文基于B样条和众数估计,提出一个稳健跳点检测方法.然后利用检测出的跳点给出了回归函数的稳健有效估计量,并讨论了参数的选择.数值模拟和实例分析验证了所提方法在有限样本下的表现.     

基于众数回归的变系数部分非线性模型的稳健估计

针对变系数部分非线性模型,提出了一种稳健的基于众数回归的两阶段估计方法.首先,基于B-样条函数近似系数函数,利用QR正交分解技术构造了非线性模型,得到了参数的非线性最小二乘估计.其次,提出了变系数函数的众数回归估计量.在一定条件下,证明了估计量的渐近性质.通过数值模拟和实际数据分析,说明了所提估计方法的有效性.     

GARCH(1,1)模型的稳健估计比较及应用

首先阐述了GARCH(1,1)模型稳健估计的构造方法,然后在模型有无异常值扩散效应约束和异常值比例不同的情况下,比较了传统QMLE估计和多种稳健M估计的表现,结果表明:在数据无异常值下,QMLE估计较优;随着异常值比例增加,稳健Andrew估计表现更好;模型施加异常值扩散效应约束对估计有一定改善但不显著.最后选取波动程度不同的两个阶段沪深300指数的收益率,用模型拟合进行了实例比较,在波动程度较大时,Andrew估计效果较优,在波动相对平稳时,LAD估计较优.     

纵向数据下线性模型的模态回归估计

本文考虑纵向数据下线性回归模型的稳健估计问题.通过结合模态回归(modal regression)方法和二次推断函数(quadratic inference functions)技术,提出了一种基于模态回归的估计过程.证明了回归系数的估计是相合的,并给出了其渐近分布.数据模拟结果表明所提出的估计方法具有较好的稳健性和有效性.     

稳健的惩罚经验似然方法及压缩估计

本文基于原有的经验似然函数,在经验似然的约束条件中的估计方程上加入Huber函数和权重函数,将经验似然方法和稳健估计方程相结合,再在目标函数中加上SCAD惩罚函数,提出一种稳健的变量选择和惩罚估计方法.通过数值模拟与最小二乘估计和普通的惩罚经验似然估计在变量选择和参数估计方面进行比较,显示本文所提出的基于惩罚稳健经验似然的压缩估计具有明显优势.     

贝叶斯复合分位回归的Gibbs抽样算法（英文）

大多数基于传统均值回归的建模方法都对非正态误差表现出不稳健的估计结果.和传统均值回归相比,复合分位回归(CQR)可以产生稳健的估计.基于一个复合反对称Laplace分布(CALD),我们建立了加权复合分位回归(WCQR)的贝叶斯分层模型.Gibbs抽样算法被发展用于WCQR的后验推断.最后,我们提供了一些模拟研究和一个实际数据分析来验证所提方法.     

部分线性混合效应模型中方差分量的稳健估计

部分线性混合效应模型中方差分量是我们感兴趣的参数, 文献中已经给出许多估计方法. 但是其中很多方法都可以归结为广义估计方程方法(GEE), 如: 最大似然估计(MLE), 约束最大似然估计(REMLE)等, 而GEE方法对异常点很敏感. 本文提出一组关于部分线性混合效应模型(PLMM)中均值和方差分量的稳健估计方程, 对均值和方差分量同时进行稳健估计; 并进行了随机模拟考察所提出稳健估计的有效性, 最后通过两个实例, 说明了所提方法的可行性.     

基于似无关回归的多元稳健损失函数方法

针对多响应参数优化问题,考虑响应间相关性和可控因子波动的影响,提出了一种基于似无关回归的多元稳健损失函数方法。首先采用似无关回归对模型拟合和过程优化中的相关参数进行估计,更有效地利用响应间相关性信息;然后利用给定点处梯度信息来估计可控因子波动对过程稳健性的影响。算例表明,当响应间存在相关性时,与最小二乘方法相比,采用似无关回归拟合的响应曲面模型精度更高;与传统质量损失函数相比,在采用相同质量成本矩阵时,采用稳健损失函数方法得到的最优解处期望质量损失更小。     

On asymptotics of t-type regression estimation in multiple linear model

We consider a robust estimator (t-type regression estimator) of multiple linear regression model by maximizing marginal likelihood of a scaled t-type error t-distribution. The marginal likelihood can also be applied to the de-correlated response when the within-subject correlation can be consistently estimated from an initial estimate of the model based on the independent working assumption. This paper shows that such a t-type estimator is consistent.     

Robust parameter estimation with a small bias against heavy contamination

In this paper we consider robust parameter estimation based on a certain cross entropy and divergence. The robust estimate is defined as the minimizer of the empirically estimated cross entropy. It is shown that the robust estimate can be regarded as a kind of projection from the viewpoint of a Pythagorean relation based on the divergence. This property implies that the bias caused by outliers can become sufficiently small even in the case of heavy contamination. It is seen that the asymptotic variance of the robust estimator is naturally overweighted in proportion to the ratio of contamination. One may surmise that another form of cross entropy can present the same behavior as that discussed above. It can be proved under some conditions that no cross entropy can present the same behavior except for the cross entropy considered here and its monotone transformation.     

Composite quantile regression for single-index models with asymmetric errors

For the single-index model, a composite quantile regression technique is proposed in this paper to construct robust and efficient estimation. Theoretical analysis reveals that the proposed estimate of the single-index vector is highly efficient relative to its corresponding least squares estimate. For the single-index vector, the proposed method is always valid across a wide spectrum of error distributions; even in the worst case scenario, the asymptotic relative efficiency has a lower bound 86.4 %. Meanwhile, we employ weighted local composite quantile regression to obtain a consistent and robust estimate for the nonparametric component in the single-index model, which is adapted to both symmetric and asymmetric distributions. Numerical study and a real data analysis can further illustrate our theoretical findings.     

On the recoverable robust traveling salesman problem

We consider an uncertain traveling salesman problem, where distances between nodes are not known exactly, but may stem from an uncertainty set of possible scenarios. This uncertainty set is given as intervals with an additional bound on the number of distances that may deviate from their expected, nominal values. A recoverable robust model is proposed, that allows a tour to change a bounded number of edges once a scenario becomes known. As the model contains an exponential number of constraints and variables, an iterative algorithm is proposed, in which tours and scenarios are computed alternately. While this approach is able to find a provably optimal solution to the robust model, it also needs to solve increasingly complex subproblems. Therefore, we also consider heuristic solution procedures based on local search moves using a heuristic estimate of the actual objective function. In computational experiments, these approaches are compared.     

Efficient robust estimation of time-series regression models

The paper studies a new class of robust regression estimators based on the two-step least weighted squares (2S-LWS) estimator which employs data-adaptive weights determined from the empirical distribution or quantile functions of regression residuals obtained from an initial robust fit. Just like many existing two-step robust methods, the proposed 2S-LWS estimator preserves robust properties of the initial robust estimate. However, contrary to the existing methods, the first-order asymptotic behavior of 2S-LWS is fully independent of the initial estimate under mild conditions. We propose data-adaptive weighting schemes that perform well both in the cross-section and time-series data and prove the asymptotic normality and efficiency of the resulting procedure. A simulation study documents these theoretical properties in finite samples.     

Robust Simulation-Based Estimation of ARMA Models

This article proposes a new approach to the robust estimation of a mixed autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) model. It is based on the indirect inference method that originally was proposed for models with an intractable likelihood function. The estimation algorithm proposed is based on an auxiliary autoregressive representation whose parameters are first estimated on the observed time series and then on data simulated from the ARMA model. To simulate data the parameters of the ARMA model have to be set. By varying these we can minimize a distance between the simulation-based and the observation-based auxiliary estimate. The argument of the minimum yields then an estimator for the parameterization of the ARMA model. This simulation-based estimation procedure inherits the properties of the auxiliary model estimator. For instance, robustness is achieved with GM estimators. An essential feature of the introduced estimator, compared to existing robust estimators for ARMA models, is its theoretical tractability that allows us to show consistency and asymptotic normality. Moreover, it is possible to characterize the influence function and the breakdown point of the estimator. In a small sample Monte Carlo study it is found that the new estimator performs fairly well when compared with existing procedures. Furthermore, with two real examples, we also compare the proposed inferential method with two different approaches based on outliers detection.     

Some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the MEM(1,1)

In this paper, we extend the closed form moment estimator (ordinary MCFE) for the autoregressive conditional duration model given by Lu et al (2016) and propose some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the multiplicative error model to deal with the additive and innovational outliers. The robustification of the closed form estimator is done by replacing the sample mean and sample autocorrelation with some robust estimators. These estimators are more robust than the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) often used to estimate this model, and they are easy to implement and do not require the use of any numerical optimization procedure and the choice of initial value. The performance of our proposal in estimating the parameters and forecasting conditional mean μ_t of the MEM(1,1) process is compared with the proposals existing in the literature via Monte Carlo experiments, and the results of these experiments show that our proposal outperforms the ordinary MCFE, QMLE, and least absolute deviation estimator in the presence of outliers in general. Finally, we fit the price durations of IBM stock with the robust closed form estimators and the benchmarks and analyze their performances in estimating model parameters and forecasting the irregularly spaced intraday Value at Risk.     

An adaptive sliding mode backstepping control for the mobile manipulator with nonholonomic constraints

To solve disturbances, nonlinearity, nonholonomic constraints and dynamic coupling between the platform and its mounted robot manipulator, an adaptive sliding mode controller based on the backstepping method applied to the robust trajectory tracking of the wheeled mobile manipulator is described in this article. The control algorithm rests on adopting the backstepping method to improve the global ultimate asymptotic stability and applying the sliding mode control to obtain high response and invariability to uncertainties. According to the Lyapunov stability criterion, the wheeled mobile manipulator is divided into several stabilizing subsystems, and an adaptive law is designed to estimate the general nondeterminacy, which make the controller be capable to drive the trajectory tracking error of the mobile manipulator to converge to zero even in the presence of perturbations and mathematical model errors. We compare our controller with the robust neural network based algorithm in nonholonomic constraints and uncertainties, and simulation results prove the effectivity and feasibility of the proposed method in the trajectory tracking of the wheeled mobile manipulator.