超过程条件律的收敛与非灭绝超过程

超过程作为一类粒子系统的高密度极限过程,已为广泛研究 本文从讨论超过程的灭绝问题出发,得出一般分支情形下的灭绝时分布.而后基于灭绝时本文构造了一族条件律,并证明了这族条件律存在唯一的极限律,而且在此极限律下超过程是非灭绝过程.     

具有脉冲效应和综合害虫控制的捕食系统

本文通过生物控制和化学控制提出了具有周期脉冲效应与害虫控制的捕食系统. 系统保护天敌避免灭绝,在一些条件下可以使害虫灭绝.就是说当脉冲周期小于某一临界值时,存在全局稳定害虫灭绝周期解.脉冲周期增大大于临界值时,平凡害虫灭绝周期解失去稳定性并产生正周期解,利用分支理论来研究正周期解的存在性.进而,利用李雅普诺夫函数和比较定理确定了持续生存的条件.     

流行病灭绝时间和费用估计随机模型

本文用具有吸收状态的生灭马氏过程建立了流行病随机模型,研究了灭绝之前生灭过程的分布,发现初始分布是拟平稳分布时,其灭绝时间服从指数分布,并得到了灭绝时间与状态概率的关系式和费用估计的期望值.应用模型给出了一个固定人口为N的流行病灭绝时间和平均费用的数值模拟结果.     

一类具有时滞的随机SIS传染病模型

本文研究一类具有时滞的随机SIS传染病模型,并定性分析种群灭绝和持久的充分条件.获得了阈值R_0,当R_01时,种群灭绝.当R_01时,种群持久.并通过了数值模拟验证了上述理论结果.     

一般超过程灭绝时的分布及其矩性质

本文研究了分枝特征为ψ（ｚ） ＝ ｂｚ ＋ ｃｚ２ ＋ ∫∞０ （ｅｕｚ － １＋ ｕｚ）ｎ（ｄｕ）的一般超过程的灭绝性问题,给出了超过程灭绝时的分布,同时也对灭绝时的矩进行了讨论     

具有线性脉冲的周期捕食系统的持久性

研究具有HollingIV功能性反应和脉冲的周期捕食食饵系统．找到了影响该系统动力学行为的阈值Ro．证明了当Ro〈1时,该系统的食饵灭绝周期解是局部渐近稳定的;当R0〉1时,该系统的食饵灭绝周期解变得不稳定且食饵将一致持久．     

基于媒体报道下的一类SIRS传染病模型研究

本文主要研究了基于媒体报道下的一类SIRS传染病模型的持久与灭绝问题.利用一个控制疾病持久与灭绝的临界值R_0,求得了该模型存在两个平衡点:无病平衡点和地方病平衡点.结果表明当R_0≤1时,无病平衡点呈全局渐进稳定,这表示疾病是灭绝的;而当R_0 1时,地方病平衡点呈全局渐进稳定,这说明疾病是持久的.最后通过数值分析验证了该结论.     

非灭绝条件下超过程的一些性质

在不灭绝的条件概率下的超过程简称为条件超过程. 考虑条件超过程(下临界或临界的情形)的一些性质. 首先, 对条件超过程总占位时测度在紧集上有限这一随机事件的概率给出了一个等价刻画, 并且给了这个等价刻画的一个应用. 我们的结果是已有结果从特殊分支机制 $r^{1+\beta}$到一般分支机制的推广. 还给出已有结果中一 个论断在 $d=3,4$ 时的新证明. 然后, 研究条件二分支超Brown运动的局部灭绝性质. 当$d=1$时, $\,X_t/\sqrt{t}\,$ 弱收敛到 $\eta\lambda$, 其中$\eta$ 是正的随机变量, $\lambda$是$\R$上的Lebesgue 测度; 当 $d\geq 2$ 时, 条件二分支超Brown运动 $\{X_t\}$ 在依概率意义下是局部灭绝的.     

超布朗运动的灭绝时的分布

本文研究了超布朗运动的局部灭绝时的概率分布,并且得到了一类发展方程的解的一个性质。     

一类马氏环境中连续型传染病模型的灭绝概率

这篇文章主要研究一类马氏环境中的连续型传染病模型,即假设疾病传染率和病人减少(死亡或治愈)的发生频率及数目都受一外在马氏过程的影响.在这些假设下,我们得出初始状态为i时疾病的灭绝概率满足的积分方程,并通过Laplace-变换的方法,给出了积分方程的解.进一步,当外在马氏环境为两个状态,并且每次病人减少的数目都服从指数分布时,给出了灭绝概率Laplace-变换的明确表达式.     

ENDANGERED SPECIES AND NATURAL RESOURCE EXPLOITATION: EXTINCTION VS. COEXISTENCE

A model of renewable resource exploitation under event uncertainty is formulated. The model is applied to analyze the situation in which excessive water diversion for human needs can lead to the extinction of an animal population. Special attention is given to uncertainty regarding the conditions that lead to extinction. The manner in which the potential benefit foregone due to the species' extinction (the “extinction penalty”) induces more conservative exploitation policies is studied in detail. When the extinction penalty is ignored, the optimal policy is to drive the resource stock to a particular equilibrium level from any initial state. When the extinction penalty is accounted for and the conditions that lead to extinction are not fully understood (i.e., involve uncertainty), an interval of equilibrium states is identified, which depends on the penalty and on the immediate extinction risk.     

The threshold between permanence and extinction for a stochastic Logistic model with regime switching

A stochastic logistic model under regime switching is proposed and investigated. Sufficient conditions for extinction, non-persistence in the mean, weak persistence and stochastic permanence are established. The threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Then we show that this threshold also is the threshold between stochastic permanence and extinction under a simple additional condition. The results show that firstly, the stationary probability distribution of the Markov chain plays a key role in determining the permanence and extinction of the population. Secondly, different types of environmental noises have different effects on the permanence and extinction of the population. Thirdly, the more the stochastic noises, the easier the population goes to extinction.     

Uniqueness and extinction properties of generalised Markov branching processes

This paper focuses on the basic problems regarding uniqueness and extinction properties for generalised Markov branching processes. The uniqueness criterion is firstly established and a differential-integral equation satisfied by the transition functions of such processes is derived. The extinction probability is then obtained. A closed form is presented for both the mean extinction time and the conditional mean extinction time. It turns out that these important quantities are closely related to the elementary gamma function.     

Uniqueness,Extinction and Explosivity of Generalised Markov Branching Processes with Pairwise Interaction

We examine basic properties regarding uniqueness, extinction, and explosivity for the generalised Markov branching processes with pairwise interaction. First we establish uniqueness criteria, proving that in the essentially-explosive case the process is honest if and only if the mean death rate is greater than or equal to the mean birth rate, while in the sub-explosive case the process is dishonest only in exceptional circumstances. Explicit expressions are then obtained for the extinction probabilities, the mean extinction times and the conditional mean extinction times. Explosivity is also investigated and an explicit expression for mean explosion time is established.     

A pathwise approach to the extinction of branching processes with countably many types

We consider the extinction events of Galton–Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. In particular, we construct truncated and augmented Galton–Watson processes with finite but increasing sets of types. A pathwise approach is then used to show that, under some sufficient conditions, the corresponding sequence of extinction probability vectors converges to the global extinction probability vector of the Galton–Watson process with countably infinitely many types. Besides giving rise to a family of new iterative methods for computing the global extinction probability vector, our approach paves the way to new global extinction criteria for branching processes with countably infinitely many types.     

Persistence and extinction of a stochastic non-autonomous Gilpin–Ayala system driven by Lévy noise

In this paper, we consider the persistence and extinction of a stochastic non-autonomous Gilpin–Ayala system driven by Lévy noise. Sufficient criteria for extinction, non-persistence in the mean and weak persistence of the system are established. The threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. From the results we can see that both persistence and extinction have close relationships with Lévy noise. Some simulation figures are introduced to demonstrate the analytical findings.     

Seasonal forcing in stochastic epidemiology models

The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing. We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions and the optimal path to extinction when seasonality in the contact rate is included in the models. Knowledge of the optimal extinction path enables one to compute the mean time to extinction, which in turn allows one to compare the effect of various control schemes, including vaccination and treatment, on the eradication of an infectious disease.     

Almost sufficient and necessary conditions for permanence and extinction of nonautonomous discrete logistic systems with time-varying delays and feedback control

A class of nonautonomous discrete logistic single-species systems with time-varying pure-delays and feedback control is studied. By introducing a new research method, almost sufficient and necessary conditions for the permanence and extinction of species are obtained. Particularly, when the system degenerates into a periodic system, sufficient and necessary conditions on the permanence and extinction of species are obtained. Moreover, a very important fact is found in our results, that is, the feedback control and delays are harmless for the permanence and extinction of species for discrete single-species systems. This shows that in a discrete single-species system introducing the feedback control to factitiously control the permanence and extinction of species is useless.     

Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment II

This is a continuation of our paper [M. Liu, K. Wang, X. Liu. Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment. Appl Math Model 2011;35:752–62]. This work still devotes to studying three stochastic single-species models in a polluted environment. For the first system, sufficient criteria for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence of the population are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence in the mean and extinction is obtained. For the second model, sufficient conditions for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is derived. For the third system, the threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is obtained.