次分数跳—扩散过程下交换期权的定价

考虑次分数跳一扩散过程下交换期权的定价问题.首先,将次分数Ito公式推广到次分数跳-扩散的情形.其次,利用次分数跳一扩散Ito公式,给出了次分数跳一扩散环境下的Black-Scholes偏微分方程.最后,通过求解偏微分方程,得到了次分数跳-扩散过程下交换期权的定价公式.     

带跳次分数布朗运动下亚式期权定价

研究次分数布朗运动环境下带跳跃的几何亚式期权定价问题,给出了标的资产遵循次分数跳-扩散过程下的几何平均亚式期权的定价公式.首先,将次分数公式推广到次分数跳-扩散的情况;其次,结合自融资交易策略得到次分数布朗运动下带跳的几何平均亚式期权满足的Black-Scholes偏微分方程;最后,利用变量替换法求解该偏微分方程得出亚式期权的定价公式.通过数值实验,可以看出赫斯特指数和跳跃强度对亚式期权价值有显著的影响.推广了一些已有的结论,扩展了期权定价相关理论.     

服从分数跳-扩散过程的复合期权定价

用保险精算法,在标的资产价格服从分数跳-扩散过程,且风险利率、波动率和期望收益率为时间的非随机函数的情况下,给出了欧式复合期权的定价公式.结果推广了Gukhal以及Li等关于传统跳-扩散模型下的欧式复合期权的定价公式.     

分数跳-扩散模型下的互换期权定价

用保险精算法,在标的资产价格服从分数跳-扩散过程,且风险利率、波动率和期望收益率为时间的非随机函数的情况下,给出了一类多资产期权——欧式交换期权的定价公式．该公式是标准跳扩散模型下的欧式期权及欧式交换期权定价公式的推广．     

体制转换模型下巨灾权益卖权的定价研究

本文探讨体制转换跳扩散模型下巨灾权益卖权的定价问题.模型参数,包括无风险利率、保险公司股价的平均回报率和波动率均随着经济状态的变化而改变.文中假设经济环境采用一个连续时间、有限状态、可观测的马尔可夫链来刻画,从而可以将经济条件的变化考虑到产品定价中.通过体制转换Esscher变换选取一个等价鞅测度,然后通过快速傅立叶变换对巨灾权益卖权进行定价.     

随机利率下分数跳-扩散Ornstein-Uhlenbeck期权定价模型

假设股票价格遵循分数布朗运动和复合泊松过程驱动的随机微分方程,短期利率服从HullWhite模型,建立了随机利率情形下的分数跳-扩散Ornstein-Uhlenbeck期权定价模型,利用价格过程的实际概率测度和公平保费原理,得到了欧式看涨期权定价的解析表达式,推广了Black-Scholes模型.     

分数跳-扩散环境下几种新型期权定价模型

假定股票价格遵循分数跳-扩散过程,利用公平保费原则和价格过程的实际测度,获得几种新型期权——欧式看涨幂期权、欧式上封顶及下保底看涨幂期权定价公式.对期权定价模型进行了推广.     

随机利率下服从分数跳-扩散模型的重置期权定价

假设利率服从扩展的Vasicek模型,标的资产价格服从分数跳-扩散过程,利用无套利理论与多元正态分布,导出了规定时间的重置期权的定价公式.     

随机利率下服从分数跳-扩散过程的回望期权定价

文章主要研究分数CIR利率模型下,标的资产股票价格服从分数跳-扩散过程的欧式回望期权定价问题.利用无套利原理和分数It公式,建立期权定价模型,得到了期权价格所满足的偏微分方程.并利用有限差分方法,给出了微分方程隐式格式的数值解,最后通过数值实验验证了该方法的有效性,推广了已有的回望期权定价理论.     

美国巨灾灾害保险期货期权的鞅方法定价

基于对数正态带跳扩散模型,利用鞅方法和修正后的期权执行条件下的保险精算方法,研究了美国巨灾灾害保险期货期权的定价问题,得到了欧式看涨保险期货期权任意时刻的定价公式.最后通过R软件进行实证分析,给出了两种方法定价的区别和联系,结果说明保险精算方法定价较为准确.     

基于B-K二叉树利率模型的巨灾债券定价研究

针对一种巨灾保险风险证券化产品-巨灾债券的定价问题,首次考虑了我国短期利率的期限结构,并在此基础上提出了Black-Karasinski利率二叉树建立方法(B-K模型),以此确定了中国短期无风险利率,最后通过Louberge巨灾债券理论定价方法试着对我国假想台风损失巨灾债券进行了具体定价,为我国进行巨灾保险风险证券化定价方面提供了一种新的尝试.     

Longstaff利率下巨灾债券定价的一种FFT方法——基于广东省1989~2015台风数据的实证分析

传统的保险市场难以满足日益频发的巨灾风险分散需求,巨灾债券作为一种非传统金融创新工具提供了一种新的分散机制,而精准定价则对巨灾债券的成功发行与交易起着关键作用。本文基于风险中性测度技术,在Longstaff随机利率且巨灾风险累积损失服从复合泊松损失条件下,得到了零息票巨灾债券价格公式;进一步结合广东省1989~2015年台风风暴潮灾害损失数据进行实证分析;最后,针对定价公式复杂性,本文利用快速傅里叶变换方法进行数值求解,结果验证了本文所构模型的可行性。本文的研究是希望能为我国发行巨灾债券与风险测度提供一定的理论基础与技术支持。     

具有复合泊松损失和随机利率的巨灾期权定价

分析了带有复合泊松损失过程和随机利率的巨灾看跌期权的定价问题.资产价格通过跳扩散过程刻画,该过程与损失过程相关.当利率过程服从CIR模型时,获得了期权定价的显式解,并给出相关证明.通过一个实例,讨论了资产价格与期权价格的关系.     

Pricing catastrophe options with counterparty credit risk in a reduced form model

In this paper, we study the price of catastrophe options with counterparty credit risk in a reduced form model. We assume that the loss process is generated by a doubly stochastic Poisson process, the share price process is modeled through a jump-diffusion process which is correlated to the loss process, the interest rate process and the default intensity process are modeled through the Vasicek model. We derive the closed form formulae for pricing catastrophe options in a reduced form model. Furthermore, we make some numerical analysis on the explicit formulae.     

Pricing industry loss warranties in a Lévy–Frailty framework

We propose a novel risk-neutral pricing approach for industry loss warranties. In doing so, we explicitly take into account the statistical dependence of the losses on individual policies in the underlying insurance portfolio, caused by the occurrence of a natural catastrophe. Inspired by recent advances in the structured credit literature, we model joint claim events in a Lévy–Frailty framework with a stochastic time change. Event time is driven by rare and large jumps of a compound Poisson subordinator and thus elapses more quickly when a natural catastrophe has struck, leading to a clustering of losses. We estimate the model on historical ILW quotes and obtain encouraging fit statistics.     

Research on Flood Loss Distribution and Catastrophe Bond Pricing Based on Bayesian Inference

Taking flood catastrophe risk in China as the research background, aiming at the characteristics of flood loss ``low frequency and high loss', Bayesian inference method is used to fit the loss distribution, and Bayesian inference is used to obtain the loss frequency distribution and loss quota distribution of flood in China. On this basis, Monte Carlo simulation method is used to calculate the probability distribution of annual flood loss in China under different trigger conditions, and then CAPM is used to study the pricing of flood catastrophe bonds in China. It is concluded that under different trigger conditions, as the trigger value increases gradually, the corresponding trigger is triggered. Comparing the three types of bonds, it can be found that the price of bonds decreases with the decrease of principal guarantee ratio and the increase of principal loss ratio, that is, the investment risk is directly proportional to the return, which provides reference for issuing flood catastrophe bonds in China.     

Longevity bond premiums: The extreme value approach and risk cubic pricing

The purpose of this study is to analyze the securitization of longevity risk with an emphasis on longevity risk modeling and longevity bond premium pricing. Various longevity derivatives have been proposed, and the capital market has experienced one unsuccessful attempt by the European Investment Bank (EIB) in 2004. After carefully analyzing the pros and cons of previous securitizations, we present our proposed longevity bonds, whose payoffs are structured as a series of put option spreads. We utilize a random walk model with drift to fit small variations of mortality improvements and employ extreme value theory to model rare longevity events. Our method is a new approach in longevity risk securitization, which has the advantage of both capturing mortality improvements within sample and extrapolating rare, out-of- sample longevity events. We demonstrate that the risk cubic model developed for pricing catastrophe bonds can be applied to mortality and longevity bond pricing and use the model to calculate risk premiums for longevity bonds.     

极值理论及其在巨灾再保险定价中的应用

巨灾损失中往往存在极端值,一般统计分布对其拟合效果欠佳,本文运用极值理论对极端值建模,基于分层定价的思想,在不同的起赔点下对再保险超额损失部分的定价进行了探讨,并以洪水损失数据为例进行了实证研究,拟合了POT模型,得到了洪水再保险纯保费。     

Price bounds of mortality-linked security in incomplete insurance market

This study investigates reasonable price bounds for mortality-linked securities when the issuer has only a partial hedging ability. The price bounds are established by minimizing the difference between the benchmark price and the replicating portfolio cost subject to the gain–loss ratio of excess payoff of the mortality-linked securities. In contrast to the previous studies, the assumptions of no-arbitrage pricing and utility-based pricing are not fully employed in this study because of the incompleteness of the insurance securitization market. Instead, a framework including three insurance basis assets is constructed to search for the price bounds of mortality-linked securities and use the Swiss Re mortality catastrophe bond, issued in 2003, as a numerical example. The proposed price bounds are valuable for setting bid–asked spreads and coupon premiums, and establishing trading strategies in the raising mortality securitization markets.     

Pricing perpetual American catastrophe put options: A penalty function approach

The expected discounted penalty function proposed in the seminal paper by Gerber and Shiu [Gerber, H.U., Shiu, E.S.W., 1998. On the time value of ruin. North Amer. Actuarial J. 2 (1), 48-78] has been widely used to analyze the joint distribution of the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin and the deficit at ruin, and the related quantities in ruin theory. However, few of its applications can be found beyond except that Gerber and Landry [Gerber, H.U., Landry, B., 1998. On the discount penalty at ruin in a jump-diffusion and the perpetual put option. Insurance: Math. Econ. 22, 263-276] explored its use for the pricing of perpetual American put options. In this paper, we further explore the use of the expected discounted penalty function and mathematical tools developed for the function to evaluate perpetual American catastrophe equity put options. We obtain the analytical expression for the price of perpetual American catastrophe equity put options and conduct a numerical implementation for a wide range of parameter values. We show that the use of the expected discounted penalty function enables us to evaluate the perpetual American catastrophe equity put option with minimal numerical work.