出口对中国就业的影响分析-欧美日对比分析

欧盟、美国和日本作为中国的三大贸易伙伴,它们与中国间的贸易对中国的就业有着重要的影响,利用区分加工贸易的非竞争型投入占用产出模型,对比分析了2007年中国分别向所有地区、欧盟、美国、日本和世界其他地区出口1000美元货物对中国就业的拉动作用;并结合SDA方法分析了中国出口对就业拉动效率在时间上的变迁和地区间的差别.分析发现2002年到2007年,出口对就业的拉动效率不断下降,其中就业系数的下降是主要原因.中国对美国的出口对就业的拉动效率最低,而对日本的出口对就业的拉动效率最高.     

中国数字经济增长影响因素的结构分解分析

基于投入产出模型,运用结构分解(SDA)技术测算了2012-2017年我国最终需求变动、进口变动及技术进步对中国数字经济部门总产出增长的影响.研究显示:1)国内最终需求是数字经济部门总产出增长的主要动力;2)进一步分解结果显示,技术进步中,数字技术进步是数字经济部门总产出增长的关键因素;国内最终需求中,需求水平是数字经济部门总产出增长的关键因素;3)数字经济制造业与数字经济服务业的增长机制具有异质性,数字经济制造业主要依靠最终需求水平的拉动,数字经济服务业还受到最终需求结构的变动及技术进步的影响.     

资本占用系数与直接消耗系数变动

生产能力利用程度的变化会引起资本占用系数的变化。本文从边际投入的角度,研究了资本占用系数变化对投入产出表中直接消耗系数的总体影响,并对我国1987—1990年投入产出表进行计算,得出在这两年直接消耗系数的总体变动主要是由资本占用系数的变动所致。     

投入占用产出框架下Leontief逆矩阵的变动分析

Leontief逆矩阵是投入产出分析的核心概念。研究直接消耗系数的扰动对Leontief逆矩阵的影响是投入产出分析中结构变动问题的重要议题。本文研究了在投入占用产出框架下,各部门的固定资产消耗对Leontief逆矩阵的变动影响。     

产业结构变动与城乡收入差距关系的协整分析

根据中国1952-2008年的数据,运用协整理论和Granger因果检验分析了中国产业结构变动与城乡收入差距的关系.协整检验及误差修正模型结果表明,二者之间在所研究期间内存在长期稳定的正向均衡关系,并且短期动态校正作用明显.同时,Granger因果关系检验结果说明中国的产业结构变动与城乡收入差距扩大之间存在双向因果关系.     

土地资源投入产出模型

本文研究土地资源投入产出模型,内容包括三部分:1.提出土地资源投入产出模型的基本思想和表达式,以矩阵形式建立各生产部门产品的生产与使用平衡关系式,以及土地资源的使用方程组;2.研究在包含土地改造部门情况下的完全消耗系数和完全占用系数的计算公式;3.进行土地资源变动的数量分析。     

考虑资本闲置的多年时滞人力资本投入占用产出模型

人力资本理论强调的是由教育所新增的人力资本对经济增长的决定作用.为了规划与中国经济持续增长相适应的人力资本需求,建立了一个新颖的考虑资本闲置的多年时滞投入占用产出模型.为了考虑人力资本时滞长的特点以及人力资本占用的损耗补偿,在斯通人口投入产出模型和Leontief动态投入产出模型基础上,提出了多年时滞人力资本投入占用产出模型.将LDS模型推广为考虑资本闲置的多年时滞人力资本投入占用产出模型,以便考虑影响教育产出的外生因素,并推导出既适于产出增加也适于产出减少的正解.应用上,预测至2015年的各种教育水平人力资本的总量和部门需求,发现高级人力资本短缺和人才行业结构不合理是经济发展需要解决的重要问题.     

考虑资本补偿的动态投入占用产出分析基本模型

本文依据投入占用产出分析的基本思想,建立了动态投入占用产出分析的基本模型,该模型有效地解决了动态投入产出分析中的资本补偿问题。     

多年时滞教育经济投入占用产出模型与教育结构研究

提出一个新的考虑多年时滞的动态投入占用产出模型研究教育结构,采用阶变法处理投入产出模型的非线性系数,编制2000年教育经济投入占用产出表,计算教育规模和人力资本需求和教育经费投入,发现高级人力资本在总量上,特别是结构上的短缺是中国经济发展的一个严重问题.     

人口结构变动对中国能源消费碳排放的影响——基于城镇化和居民消费视角

本文通过引入城镇化及居民消费等因素拓展LMDI模型,解构中国能源消费碳排放变动为碳排放因子、能源强度、消费抑制因子、城镇化、居民消费和人口规模六大效应,并探讨上述六种效应变动对中国能源消费碳排放量变动的贡献率及其作用机理。然后,选择中国30个省份,2003-2012年的面板数据实证分析人口结构变动对区域能源消费碳排放量变动及其分解效应的影响。结果表明:2003 2012年中国碳排放总量增加42.1167亿吨,消费抑制因子效应、城镇化效应、居民消费效应和人口规模效应对碳排放量的影响呈现为正效应,而碳排放因子效应和能源强度效应对碳排放量的影响整体上呈现为负效应,并且居民消费效应对碳排放量变动的影响最大。人口城镇化已成为影响中国碳排放量变动的主要人口因素。较之中、西部地区,东部地区的人口规模效应明显较高,但其能源强度效应则相反,中部地区碳排放因子效应明显高于东、西部地区。现阶段,人口年龄结构、人口教育结构和人口职业结构变动减缓了中国碳排放量的增长,而人口城乡结构、区域经济水平和人口规模变动的影响方向则相反,最后,人口性别结构变动对碳排放量变动无显著地影响。     

A new two‐phase structure‐preserving doubling algorithm for critically singular M‐matrix algebraic Riccati equations

Among numerous iterative methods for solving the minimal nonnegative solution of an M‐matrix algebraic Riccati equation, the structure‐preserving doubling algorithm (SDA) stands out owing to its overall efficiency as well as accuracy. SDA is globally convergent and its convergence is quadratic, except for the critical case for which it converges linearly with the linear rate 1/2. In this paper, we first undertake a delineatory convergence analysis that reveals that the approximations by SDA can be decomposed into two components: the stable component that converges quadratically and the rank‐one component that converges linearly with the linear rate 1/2. Our analysis also shows that as soon as the stable component is fully converged, the rank‐one component can be accurately recovered. We then propose an efficient hybrid method, called the two‐phase SDA, for which the SDA iteration is stopped as soon as it is determined that the stable component is fully converged. Therefore, this two‐phase SDA saves those SDA iterative steps that previously have to have for the rank‐one component to be computed accurately, and thus essentially, it can be regarded as a quadratically convergent method. Numerical results confirm our analysis and demonstrate the efficiency of the new two‐phase SDA. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于结构分解技术中两种分解方法的比较研究

投入产出技术中的结构分解技术被广泛的应用于经济系统的各个领域,但随着不同的经济分析的需要,发现传统的结构分解方法——算术分解法在分析效率、强度等指数型指标时存在一定的分解困难。因此,本文提出了广义指数分解方法的基本概念和一般解,通过模型建立、以及我国生产能源消耗量的实证分析,对两种分解方法进行比较。研究表明,两种分解方法适用不同的指标形式,广义指数分解法在分析指数型指标时,更具优势。     

有序判别分析新算法及其应用

判别分析是用已知分类数据建模对未知分类数据进行判别的方法,所用数据和分类不分顺序。要对有序又有周期数据进行判别分析,就要探索有序判别的新方法。这种方法的分类应当是有序的,并且能够排除事物发展周期性的干扰。本文介绍多元数据有序判别分析新方法的原理、建模流程、应用流程和应用实例。这种判别分析将分类建模与判别归类分开。新方法对多元数据建模时在多类模型中建立滑移的多套子模型,应用时根据应用领域的知识对样本归属作初步预估,然后程序选择相关的子模型进行判别归类。这种方法解决了由于时间序列多元数据周期性造成的样本分类颠倒问题,为时间序列数据的分类和预测开辟了新途径,在实际应用中取得了良好的效果,解决了重大难题。     

A structure-preserving doubling algorithm for nonsymmetric algebraic Riccati equation

In this paper, we propose a structure-preserving doubling algorithm (SDA) for the computation of the minimal nonnegative solution to the nonsymmetric algebraic Riccati equation (NARE), based on the techniques developed for the symmetric cases. This method allows the simultaneous approximation to the minimal nonnegative solutions of the NARE and its dual equation, requiring only the solutions to two linear systems and several matrix multiplications per iteration. Similar to Newton's method and the fixed-point iteration methods for solving NAREs, we also establish global convergence for SDA under suitable conditions, using only elementary matrix theory. We show that sequences of matrices generated by SDA are monotonically increasing and quadratically convergent to the minimal nonnegative solutions of the NARE and its dual equation. Numerical experiments show that the SDA algorithm is feasible and effective, and outperforms Newton's iteration and the fixed-point iteration methods. This research was supported in part by RFDP (20030001103) & NSFC (10571007) of China and the National Center for Theoretical Sciences in Taiwan. This author's research was supported by NSFC grant 1057 1007 and RFDP grant 200300001103 of China.     

Approximating nonstationaryPh(t)/M(t)/s/c queueing systems

Nonstationary phase processes are defined and a surrogate distribution approximation (SDA) method for analyzing transient and nonstationary queueing systems with nonstationary phase arrival processes is presented. Regardless of system capacityc, the SDA method requires the numerical solution of only 6K differential equations, whereK is the number of phases in the arrival process, compared to theK(c+1) Kolmogorov forward equations required for the classical method of solution. Time-dependent approximations of mean and variance of the number of entities in the system and the number of busy servers are obtained. Empirical test results over a wide range of systems indicate the SDA is quite accurate.This research was partially funded by National Science Foundation grant ECS-8404409.     

Association measures for interval variables

Advances in Data Analysis and Classification - Symbolic Data Analysis (SDA) is a relatively new field of statistics that extends conventional data analysis by taking into account intrinsic data...     

Numerical Simulation of Crack Growth

In recent years the X-FEM based on the partition of unity method and the strong discontinuity approach (SDA) have shown to be powerful tools to model crack growth. Both methods model the crack surface by introducing additional d.o.f.. In the X-FEM the nodes in the mesh around a crack are globally enhanced with new d.o.f. while in in the SDA the new d.o.f. are commonly introduced as internal ones. Thus the jump displacement fields are constant across elements. Therefore the d.o.f. can be condensed on element level which results in jumps in the displacement field at element edges. In this contribution the strong discontinuity approach is used approximating the displacement jump linearly across the crack length similar as e.g. in [3]. New additional nodes of the cracked elements that lie on the element edges are introduced but are not considered as internal nodes but remain global. Thus crack path continuity is automatically given. These global d.o.f. approximate the discontinuous part of the displacement field. The sum of the aforementioned part and the continuous displacement field represent the total displacement field including a possible jump. (© 2006 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Transforming algebraic Riccati equations into unilateral quadratic matrix equations

The problem of reducing an algebraic Riccati equation XCX − AX − XD + B = 0 to a unilateral quadratic matrix equation (UQME) of the kind PX ² + QX + R = 0 is analyzed. New transformations are introduced which enable one to prove some theoretical and computational properties. In particular we show that the structure preserving doubling algorithm (SDA) of Anderson (Int J Control 28(2):295–306, 1978) is in fact the cyclic reduction algorithm of Hockney (J Assoc Comput Mach 12:95–113, 1965) and Buzbee et al. (SIAM J Numer Anal 7:627–656, 1970), applied to a suitable UQME. A new algorithm obtained by complementing our transformations with the shrink-and-shift technique of Ramaswami is presented. The new algorithm is accurate and much faster than SDA when applied to some examples concerning fluid queue models.     

Numerical Prediction of Macroscopic Material Failure

The aim of this contribution is the numerical determination of macroscopic material properties based on constitutive relationships characterising the microscale. A macroscopic failure criterion is computed using a three dimensional finite element formulation. The proposed finite element model implements the Strong Discontinuity Approach (SDA) in order to include the localised, fully nonlinear kinematics associated with the failure on the microscale. This numerical application exploits further the Enhanced–Assumed–Strain (EAS) concept to decompose additively the deformation gradient into a conforming part corresponding to a smooth deformation mapping and an enhanced part reflecting the final failure kinematics of the microscale. This finite element formulation is then used for the modelling of the microscale and for the discretisation of a representative volume element (RVE). The macroscopic material behaviour results from numerical computations of the RVE. (© 2006 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)