人口结构变动对中国能源消费碳排放的影响——基于城镇化和居民消费视角

本文通过引入城镇化及居民消费等因素拓展LMDI模型,解构中国能源消费碳排放变动为碳排放因子、能源强度、消费抑制因子、城镇化、居民消费和人口规模六大效应,并探讨上述六种效应变动对中国能源消费碳排放量变动的贡献率及其作用机理。然后,选择中国30个省份,2003-2012年的面板数据实证分析人口结构变动对区域能源消费碳排放量变动及其分解效应的影响。结果表明:2003 2012年中国碳排放总量增加42.1167亿吨,消费抑制因子效应、城镇化效应、居民消费效应和人口规模效应对碳排放量的影响呈现为正效应,而碳排放因子效应和能源强度效应对碳排放量的影响整体上呈现为负效应,并且居民消费效应对碳排放量变动的影响最大。人口城镇化已成为影响中国碳排放量变动的主要人口因素。较之中、西部地区,东部地区的人口规模效应明显较高,但其能源强度效应则相反,中部地区碳排放因子效应明显高于东、西部地区。现阶段,人口年龄结构、人口教育结构和人口职业结构变动减缓了中国碳排放量的增长,而人口城乡结构、区域经济水平和人口规模变动的影响方向则相反,最后,人口性别结构变动对碳排放量变动无显著地影响。

Effect of Population Structure Change on Carbon Emission in China: Based on Perspectives of Urbanization and Residents' Consumption

We expanded the LMDI model through the introduction of urbanization,residents' consumption and other factors in this paper,decomposed changing of carbon emissions in China into carbon emissions factoreffect,energy intensity effect,consumption inhibitory factoreffect,urbanization effect,residents' consumption effect and population scale effect,and then explored contribution rate and its action mechanism of the above six effects on changing of carbon emissions in China.Then,we analyzed effect of population structure change on carbon emission by combining with the panel data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2012 in China.Results showed that:In 2003-2012,total carbon emissions increased 4.2117 billion tons in China,consumption inhibitory factor effect,urbanization effect,residents' consumption effect and population scale effect promoted the increasing of carbon emissions,but influence of carbon emission factor effect and energy intensity effect on carbon emissions were negative,and effect of residents' consumption effect was largest.Population urbanization has become the main population factor which affectscarbon emissions in China.thepopulation scale effect in eastern was significantly higher than it in central and western regions,while their energy intensity effect was directly opposite,and carbon emission factoreffect in eastern and western regions was significantly higher than it in central regions.During this period,the correlation between population age structure,population education structure,population occupation structure and carbon emissions was positive in China,but effect of population structure of urban and rural,regional economic level and population size was contrary.Finally,change of population sex structure had no significantly influence on changing of carbon emission.