吉林省综合承载力评价研究

运用状态空间法构建综合承载力模型,利用主成分分析法求取权重,对吉林省2005-2014年综合承载力进行了测算,结果显示:1)吉林省综合承载力虽然呈"波动式"上升,但始终处于超载状态,说明吉林省经济处于一种不可持续状态;2)自然资源承载力>经济承载力>生态承载力,自然资源承载力是富余的,经济承载力基本处于均衡状态,而生态资源承载力却明显不足,处于赤字状态,说明生态环境将限制吉林省经济发展;3)土地资源承载力>水资源承载力>能源承载力,土地资源承载力是富余的,但水资源和能源承载力却不足,处于赤字状态,说明水资源与能源是制约吉林省经济发展限制性因素;最后从发展循环经济,优化产业结构,提高科学技术,改变人们生产和生活方式等来提高吉林省综合承载力,旨为吉林省经济持续发展提供了技术支撑.     

基于SEM的钦州港生态承载力内涵及影响因素研究

为了改善钦州港生态环境,促进区域协调发展,综合研究区域生态承载力概念和钦州港现实对钦州港生态承载力内涵进行界定,据此提出影响因素并借助结构方程模型定量验证,结果表明社会经济、港口资源和环境污染对钦州港生态承载力的影响显著,其中经济发展水平、社会进步与发展、自然资源条件、设施资源条件、水污染、大气污染和固体废物污染对钦州港生态承载力影响相对较大.根据研究结论,有利于在港口领域拓展生态承载力研究范畴,确定影响钦州港生态承载力的关键因素及未来深入研究方向,强化生态文明建设,焕发生态活力,具有重要的理论意义与现实价值.     

城市区域性人口承载力动态综合测度

对马尔萨斯人口增长模型进行研究,设计人口承载力发展路径和基于增长模型的隶属函数,从概率角度构建人口承载力动态综合测度模型,同时,以城市区域为研究对象,以经济作为人口承载力主导影响因素,辅之以自然、环境、资源与科技因素,构建人口承载力综合评价指标体系,多角度、多因素分析区域人口承载力,寻找人口承载短板,为人口承载力研究提供新的研究方法和视角.实证研究结论显示,研究区域人口承载力当前处于承载力强阶段,并开始向适度阶段过渡,其内部指标和子系统发展不平衡,人口系统自身发展稳定,经济和环境人口承载力强,资源和科技承载力较弱,随着区域经济的发展,在相当长一段时间内可进入适度人口阶段.     

资源区经济与资源环境承载力与可持续发展研究

承载力理论与可持续发展理论密切相关,是可持续发展理论的一个重要组成部分.本文以系统思想为指导,从理论上分析了经济与环境、资源发展的关系;通过实证分析,对资源区进行了定性和定量的研究.     

旅游环境承载力子系统耦合协调关系研究——以兰州市为例

耦合指两个及以上系统的相互作用关系,协调强调旅游环境系统之间或系统组成要素之间的相互关系,旅游环境系统要素之间的协调是系统内外耦合运行的基础与发展方向,通过分析旅游环境承载力要素之间的协调性,探讨其整体效应,以保持旅游环境系统的整体输出功能和整体正效应发挥.通过旅游环境承载力子系统耦合协调的内涵分析,从自然、经济、社会三个角度构建旅游环境承载力子系统耦合的指标体系,通过熵值法确定权重,构建目的地旅游环境承载力的自然、经济、社会子系统耦合协调度模型,并以兰州市为例进行实证研究.通过研究发现,伴随着2004-2016年兰州市旅游环境承载力指数稳步提升,兰州市旅游环境承载力子系统的耦合协调度从0.1517提升到0.5535,根据兰州市旅游环境承载力子系统的耦合协调状况的分析,提出提升旅游环境承载力子系统的相关对策,以促进旅游目的地的可持续发展.     

青海省重点开发区人口资源环境承载力评价研究

选择青海省重点开发区的26个县、市(区)为研究对象,利用全局主成分分析(GPCA)、聚类分析等方法,根据人口经济活动支撑力、资源供给支持力和生态环境承载力及综合人口资源环境承载力等四个方面对这些地区1999-2012年人口资源环境承载力状况进行了定量、动态评价和分析.指数化的评价结果表明,青海省重点开发区人口资源环境承载力逐年提高,综合人口资源环境承载力指数均值从1999年的-0.29365上升到2012年的0.336723.     

北疆城市化发展的经济社会资源环境耦合协调关系分析

对北疆主要地区城市化发展中的经济社会资源环境四个系统的协调发展关系进行研究及预测,为区域的可持续发展奠定基础.首先,建立了区域经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度指标体系,以北疆主要的5个地区为例,评价四个系统的发展水平;其次,运用耦合协调度模型的计算方法,对北疆5个地区的经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度进行实证分析;最后,引入ARMA模型预测法,对该区5个地州的经济社会资源环境的未来耦合协调度进行预测.结果表明:北疆五个主要地区的经济和环境增长较快,且二者互不影响,社会和资源的变化趋势不显著;四大系统的耦合协调度整体呈现波动上升趋势,主要制约因素是社会保障;未来5年四大系统的发展趋势与前10年的相似,总体表现为小幅上升的发展态势.     

基于改进TOPSIS法的海南省资源环境承载力时空差异研究

资源环境承载力评价可以为区域资源环境管理提供有效的决策依据.以海南省作为研究对象,通过构建资源环境承载力指标体系,结合熵权法来改进TOPSIS法,构建资源环境承载力评价模型,从时间序列和空间分布对海南省资源环境承载力进行分析.结果表明:1)在时间序列上,2010-2019年海南省资源环境承载力总体处于上升趋势,并且承载能力仍有较大的提升空间;2)在空间分布上,2019年海南省资源环境承载力以低承载为主,占全省面积的67.35%;高承载面积仅占总面积的6.63%.进一步说明除海口市外的海南省其他区域资源环境条件较弱,因此,在注重高质量发展的同时,更应做到区域协同发展,从而推动整体区域资源环境承载力水平的提高.     

基于PROMETHEE方法的矿业城市防灾能力的分析

矿业城市的发展主要依赖于对矿产的采掘和加工,而矿产的过度开发则造成严重的环境污染和生态破坏等,对城市经济的发展构成重大威胁,因而提高城市防灾能力显得尤为重要.通过建立矿业城市防灾能力指标评价体系,结合PROMETHEE方法,对黄石、东营、鸡西、盘锦等四个矿业城市防灾能力进行评估,结果表明,矿业城市防灾能力强弱的关键在于经济实力、防灾和环境保护投入及居民对灾害的意识程度.     

基于熵权和综合指数法的西部矿业城市环境可持续发展综合评价

构建了包含环境治理系统、废物处理系统和城市绿化系统3个维度,共17个指标的矿业城市环境可持续发展的指标体系,借助熵权法对评价指标进行动态赋权,利用综合指数法对矿业城市六盘水2004-2011年的环境可持续发展进行了综合评价,并对3个子系统进行了评价,结果发现,矿业城市六盘水的环境可持续发展能力是逐年上升的,3个子系统的可持续发展能力也在逐步提升..     

基于模糊综合评价模型的赣州市水资源承载力动态评价

水资源的合理利用对区域经济社会发展以及促进人与自然的可持续发展至关重要.通过构建模糊综合评价模型,选取年降水量、人均水资源量、水资源利用率、万元GDP用水量、万元工业增加值用水量、农田灌溉亩均用水量、生态用水等7个指标对赣州市2009-2018年水资源承载力进行动态评价研究,分析近十年该地区水资源承载力演变趋势以及影响该地区水资源承载力的主要因素.结果表明:1)赣州市水资源综合承载力较高,水资源还有进一步开发利用的空间;2)2009-2018年赣州市水资源承载力整体上呈上升趋势,但上升幅度不大,呈现小幅波动状态,其中GDP、工业用水量以及农业用水量对赣州市水资源承载力的具有显著影响;3)赣州市水资源较丰富,但由于时空分配不均,水资源配置体系也不够完善,且供水的基础设施比较薄弱,所以水资源的开发利用程度比较低.该研究结果可为当地水资源的可持续利用提供决策参考和依据.     

Hierarchical multi-objective decision systems for general resource allocation problems

We consider optimization methods for hierarchical power-decentralized systems composed of a coordinating central system and plural semi-autonomous local systems in the lower level, each of which possesses a decision making unit. Such a decentralized system where both central and local systems possess their own objective function and decision variables is a multi-objective system. The central system allocates resources so as to optimize its own objective, while the local systems optimize their own objectives using the given resources. The lower level composes a multi-objective programming problem, where local decision makers minimize a vector objective function in cooperation. Thus, the lower level generates a set of noninferior solutions, parametric with respect to the given resources. The central decision maker, then, parametric with respect to the given resources. The central decision maker, then, chooses an optimal resource allocation and the best corresponding noninferior solution from among a set of resource-parametric noninferior solutions. A computational method is obtained based on parametric nonlinear mathematical programming using directional derivatives. This paper is concerned with a combined theory for the multi-objective decision problem and the general resource allocation problem.The authors are indebted to Professor G. Leitmann for his valuable comments and suggestions.     

Comparison of typical mega cities in China using emergy synthesis

An emergy-based comparison analysis is conducted for three typical mega cities in China, i.e., Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, from 1990 to 2005 in four perspectives including emergy intensity, resource structure, environmental pressure and resource use efficiency. A new index of non-renewable emergy/money ratio is established to indicate the utilization efficiency of the non-renewable resources. The results show that for the three mega urban systems, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the total emergy inputs were 3.76E+23, 3.54E+23, 2.52E+23 sej in 2005, of which 64.88%, 91.45% and 72.28% were imported from the outsides, respectively. As to the indicators of emergy intensity involving the total emergy use, emergy density and emergy use per cap, three cities exhibited similar overall increase trends with annual fluctuations from 1990 to 2005. Shanghai achieved the highest level of economic development and non-renewable resource use efficiency, and meanwhile, lower proportion of renewable resource use and higher environmental pressure compared to those of Beijing and Guangzhou. Guangzhou has long term sustainability considering an amount of local renewable resources used, per capita emergy used, energy consumption per unit GDP and the ratio of waste to renewable emergy. It can be concluded that different emergy-based evaluation results arise from different geographical locations, resources endowments, industrial structures and urban orientations of the concerned mega cities.     

Emergy-based analysis of Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan region in China

An emergy-based analysis was conducted for the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan urban agglomeration district from perspectives of emergy density, resource structure, environmental pressure and resource use efficiency during the period of 1991–2005. The results showed that Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan as contiguous regions shared similar characters and evolving trends in certain aspects as emergy intensity and proportion of local renewable resources on the whole. As for the local resources availability, process efficiency and environmental pressure, however, these three cities have significant differences. With comparison of the other cities in China, it is shown that Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan region has higher environment loading and lower sustainability level though enjoying rapid urbanization process and economic development. This study also suggests that the first priority on economic development competition within urban agglomeration regions may lead to the wasting of resources and redundant construction, while cooperative and rational selection for development pattern are the proper choice for coordinate regional development and long term sustainability to overcome resource restrictions.     

MODELING EFFECTS OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY TOXICANTS ON RENEWABLE RESOURCES

ABSTRACT. In this paper a nonlinear mathematical model to study effects of primary and secondary toxicants on the biomass of resources such as forestry, agricultural crops, etc., is proposed and analyzed. The primary toxicant is emitted into the environment with a constant prescribed rate by an external source and a part of which is transformed into a secondary toxicant, which is more toxic, both affecting the resource simultaneously. By using stability theory of differential equations, it is shown that the biomass density of resource attains an equilibrium level, the magnitude of which is smaller than its original (toxicant independent) carrying capacity and it decreases as the emission rate of primary toxicant increases. It is also shown that the decrease in biomass density of resource is more than the corresponding case of a single toxicant due to large transformation and uptake rates and high toxicity of secondary toxicant. It is pointed out that the resource may even become extinct if emission rate of primary toxicant and transformation rate of secondary toxicant are very large and their effects on resource are sufficiently harmful due to large uptake and high toxicity of secondary toxicant which is more toxic.     

基于DEA模型的合肥市制造业研发效率分析

基于合肥市第二次全国R&D资源清查公报最新数据,运用数据包络分析模型分析合肥市制造业12个行业大类在R&D活动中的投入产出效率.实证分析结果表明,行业大类间的研发效率差别较大,行业间对研发资源的管理使用水平不均.可通过加大研发资源的投入、人才引进、改进管理水平和调整行业规模进一步提高研发投入的效率.     

区域水资源承载力模糊线性规划模型及应用

首先按照联合国教科文组织提出的资源承载力定义,给出水资源承载力的定义,建立了水资源承载力的模糊线性规划模型,然后运用这模型对江西省的近期水资源承载力问题进行研究,数据结果表明模型的应用是成功的.     

Dynamic transport scheduling under multiple resource constraints

This paper presents a heuristic for the dynamic vehicle scheduling problem with multiple resource capacity constraints. In the envisaged application, an automated transport system using Automated Guided Vehicles, bottleneck resources are (1) vehicles, (2) docks for loading/unloading, (3) vehicle parking places, and (4) load storage space. This problem is hard, because interrelated activities (loading, transportation, unloading) at several geographical locations have to be scheduled under multiple resource constraints, where the bottleneck resource varies over time. Besides, the method should be suitable for real-time planning. We developed a dedicated serial scheduling method and analyzed its dynamic behavior using discrete event simulation. We found that our method is very well able to find good vehicle schedules satisfying all resource constraints. For comparison, we used a simple approach where we left out the resource constraints and extended the processing times by statistically estimated waiting times to account for finite capacities. We found that our newly designed method finds better schedules in terms of service levels.     

涟漪效应还是空间互动——基于空间面板联立方程模型的房价与地价关系研究

本文通过构建包含房价和地价在内的空间面板联立方程模型,利用2009~2016年中国286个地市的数据,构建空间面板联立方程模型,以研究房价和地价的空间自相关性和空间溢出效应。实证结果表明:房价与地价之间的空间互动作用明显,房价不但受到当地地价的影响还会受到周边城市房价的影响;而城市地价也会受到当地房价引起的引致需求影响,并且受到周边城市地价的影响。分区域来看,地价对房价的作用强度在东、中、西部地区依次下降,房价对地价作用强度呈现出相反的趋势。而从价格的溢出效应来看,无论是房价还是地价,西部地区的价格溢出效应都最为明显,表明相对于东、中部地区,西部地区城市在房价和地价上都更会受到周围城市的影响。