成败型元件串并联系统及并串联系统可靠性置信下限近似解的讨论

本文讨论由相互独立的成败型元件组成的串并联系统及并串联系统可靠性置信下限的近似解。本文利用系统诸元件的试验数据,在一、二阶矩拟合的原则下将其折合为原系统的伪试验数及伪成功数,然后利用单个成败型元件的可靠性的经典精确置信下限作为原系统可靠性置信下限的近似值。本文推导了伪试验数N及伪成功数S的计算公式,并给出了计算实例。     

对数正态或正态寿命型元件及系统的贮存可靠性的近似置信下限

本文给出了基于一次性检测数据的对数正态或正态寿命型元件及系统的贮存可靠性的近似置信下限的方法，并对得到的近似置信限的精度作了讨论，结果表明精度符合要求。本文还给出了数字例子。     

一种真空荧光屏的可靠性分析

基于真空荧光屏(VFD)寿命服从对数正态分布的条件,本文在逐次定数截尾样本下研究了VFD的平均寿命、失效率和可靠度的点估计及其置信下限.并利用Monte-Carlo方法对估计结果的优劣进行了分析比较,验证了结论的正确性和可行性.     

第三讲:Weibull分布和对数正态分布情形的可靠性评定

对于产品寿命服从Weibull分布或对数正态分布的情形,针对几种不同类型的数据(例如随机截尾,定数截尾情形出现的数据),分别给出了可靠性参数(可靠度、可靠寿命)的点估计或置信下限。特别是在定时截尾出现零失效情形,给出了可靠性参数的置信下限的计算公式。     

无失效数据的Bayes和多层Bayes分析

本文推广了文献[6]的结果，对指数分布无失效数据的失效率，给出了Bayes估计、Bayes置信上限以及多层Bayes估计，从而可以得到无失效数据可靠度的估计，最后，结合实际问题进行了计算。     

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In this paper, we investigate a competing risks model based on exponentiated Weibull distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme. To estimate the unknown parameters and reliability function, the maximum likelihood estimators and asymptotic confidence intervals are derived. Since Bayesian posterior density functions cannot be given in closed forms, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo method to calculate approximate Bayes estimators and highest posterior density credible intervals. To illustrate the estimation methods, a simulation study is carried out with numerical results. It is concluded that the maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation can be used for statistical inference in competing risks model under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme.     

关于无失效数据情形下的置信限

在本文中，我们对一些常见的可靠性参数了在没有失效数据情形下的置信限，不仅给出了计算最优置信下限的普遍公式，而且对指数分布，Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布和对数正态分布分别导出了具体结果。     

Two-sided M-Bayesian credible limits of reliability parameters in the case of zero-failure data for exponential distribution

In this paper, we study the interval estimation of failure rate and reliability for exponential distribution, in the case of zero-failure data, using the method of two-sided Modified Bayesian (M-Bayesian) credible limit. We discuss the properties of two-sided M-Bayesian credible limits which include the impact of the value of upper bound c of hyper parameter, and the influence of different prior distributions of hyper parameter on two-sided M-Bayesian credible limits. The paper obtains the relationship between three kinds of two-sided M-Bayesian credible limits and two-sided classical confidence limits. Finally, we use a real data set to verify the properties of two-sided M-Bayesian credible limits, and the computing results indicate that the method is efficient and easy to operate.     

性能型产品贮存期评定方法研究

设产品的性能参数服从正态线性模型。当性能参数超过规定上限或下限时产品判为不合格，对给定的可靠度和置信度得到了贮存期的点估计和四种近似置信下限，并比较了它们的覆盖率。     

并联压力—强度模型可靠性研究

In this paper,the reliability of a parallel stress-strength model of exponentiated Pareto distribution is discussed.Different point estimations and interval estimations are proposed.The point estimators obtained are maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators.The interval estimations obtained are approximate,exact,bootstrap-p and bootstrap-t confidence intervals and Bayesian credible interval.Different methods and the corresponding confidence intervals are demonstrated using some simulation studies.     

左截尾双参数指数分布的可靠寿命的广义置信下限

本文基于左截尾双参数指数分布定数截尾数据,利用Weerahandi给出的广义枢轴量和广义置信区间的概念,通过两种不同的方法建立了可靠寿命的广义置信下限.第1种方法利用位置参数无限制时可靠寿命的广义置信下限来定义左截尾情形下可靠寿命的限制广义置信下限,第2种方法基于广义枢轴量在限制参数空间上的条件分布给出可靠寿命的条件广义置信下限.我们分别研究了这两种置信下限的性质,给出了简单易行的数值计算方法.模拟比较表明限制广义置信下限具有好的覆盖率性质,条件广义置信下限的覆盖率与参数取值有关,但它有时比限制广义置信下限具有更大均值和更小标准差.     

第二讲:成败型情形和指数分布情形的可靠性评定

对于成败型情形,基于成功次数给出了成功率的优良置信限和置信区间;对于产品寿命服从指数分布的情形,针对不同类型的数据(定数截尾、定时截尾、定总时与定数混合截尾、工型区间删失等)分别给出了可靠性参数(平均无故障时间(MTBF),可靠度,可靠寿命)的点估计和置信限。     

失效率的综合E-Bayes估计

该文提出了可靠性参数的一种新估计方法综合E-Bayes估计法.在无失效数据情形下给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计的定义,并给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计。在引进失效信息后，给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计，并在此基础上给出了失效率和其它参数的综合E-Bayes估计。最后，结合实际问题进行计算，结果表明该文提出的方法可行且便于应用。     

Confidence limits for the mean of exponential distribution in any time-sequential samples

We present the general results determining confidence limits for the mean of exponential distribution in any time-sequential samples,which are obtained in any sequen- tial life tests with replacement or without replacement.Especially,we give the best lower confidence limits in the case of no failure data.     

基于随机截尾数据的指数型元件串联系统可靠性的置信限

基于元件的随机定时截尾寿命试验数据 ,给出了指数型元件串联系统可靠性的经典精确置信下限 ,给出了数字例 .     

一类可修威布尔型设备可用度的Fiducial推断

本文对于可维修的威布尔型设备考虑一类修如新模型,导出了在该模型下设备在任意时刻的可用度函数;基于设备寿命试验的完全数据,给出了威布尔分布在任意时刻可靠度的Fiducial分布,由此进一步求出可修威布尔型设备可用度的点估计和置信下限。最后进行了模拟运算,模拟结果表明,该方法在小样本情况下能够作出较精确的推断。     

参数的E Bayes估计法及其应用

提出了参数的一种估计方法—— E Bayes估计法 ,对寿命服从指数分布的产品 ,在失效率的先验分布为 Gamma分布时 ,给出了失效率的 E Bayes估计和多层 Bayes估计 ,并在此基础上给出了失效率和可靠度的 E Bayes估计的性质 .结合实际问题进行了计算 ,结果表明提出的 E Bayes估计法可行且便于应用 .     

双参数指数分布的可靠寿命的广义置信下限

基于双参数指数分布定数截尾数据,利用Weerahanandi给出的广义置信区间的概念,建立了可靠寿命的广义置信下限,并从理论上证明了我们给出的广义置信下限是精确的,即基于广义置信下限的区间估计的覆盖率等于要求的置信水平.广义置信下限需要通过数值方法得到,但是计算方法是简单直接的.在小样本情形下,通过对基于广义置信下限的置信区间与Engelhardt-Bain近似置信区间覆盖率的模拟比较,发现广义置信下限更令人满意.     

评估系统可靠度置信下限的随机模拟方法

由已知寿命分布和测试数据的五个不同类型部件,组成一串并联系统,本文应用Monte Carlo方法,Bootstrap方法,和Double Monte Carlo方法给出该系统的可靠度置信下限.     

Cost–benefit modelling for reliability growth

Decisions during the reliability growth development process of engineering equipment involve trade-offs between cost and risk. However slight, there exists a chance an item of equipment will not function as planned during its specified life. Consequently the producer can incur a financial penalty. To date, reliability growth research has focussed on the development of models to estimate the rate of failure from test data. Such models are used to support decisions about the effectiveness of options to improve reliability. The extension of reliability growth models to incorporate financial costs associated with ‘unreliability’ is much neglected. In this paper, we extend a Bayesian reliability growth model to include cost analysis. The rationale of the stochastic process underpinning the growth model and the cost structures are described. The ways in which this model can be used to support cost–benefit analysis during product development are discussed and illustrated through a simple case.