有效因子综合偏好强度与CVaR整合优化模型

本文从股票多维特征因子中选择有效因子,融合形成最大化有效因子综合偏好强度(IPS)的附加理性,构建并验证IPS-均值-CVaR投资组合优化模型。基于沪深300股2006~2015年数据分析显示:(1)有效因子IPS投资组合优越于单因子投资组合;(2)IPS方法相较于因子打分法,具有更优的多维数据整合功效;(3)IPS-均值-CVaR投资组合优化模型相对于均值-CVaR模型具有更优越的资产选择能力,也拓展了投资组合模型的多维数据处理能力和适用性。     

企业自主研发与合作创新的风险测度及组合优化

企业在整合内部创新要素进行自主研发的同时,也会寻求外部创新资源进行合作创新,当前同时从事多个R&D项目已成为常见的企业经营活动,如何在不确定条件下分析多个R&D项目投资的策略选择及风险优化,对于企业的长期发展具有重要意义。根据企业是否采取合作创新策略,可将其R&D项目分为自主研发与合作创新两类,以项目的研发成功率和投资收益率代表技术风险和市场风险,分别测度自主研发与合作创新项目的风险特性,并在此基础上构建企业R&D项目投资组合优化模型,以在自主研发与合作创新项目之间进行权衡取舍。结果表明,企业对于自主研发与合作创新项目投资组合的最优投资权重,主要取决于这两类组合的期望收益率、收益率方差、期望成功率以及两组合之间的协方差。企业可基于关键参数制定出最优的R&D项目投资组合选择策略,合理分配资金以达到风险最小化的投资目标。     

Analysis of survivorship life insurance portfolios with stochastic rates of return

A general portfolio of survivorship life insurance contracts is studied in a stochastic rate of return environment with a dependent mortality model. Two methods are used to derive the first two moments of the prospective loss random variable. The first one is based on the individual loss random variables while the second one studies annual stochastic cash flows. The distribution function of the present value of future losses at a given valuation time is derived. For illustrative purposes, an AR(1) process is used to model the stochastic rates of return, and the future lifetimes of a couple are assumed to follow a copula model. The effects of the mortality dependence, the portfolio size and the policy type, as well as the impact of investment strategies on the riskiness of portfolios of survivorship life insurance policies are analyzed by means of moments and probability distributions.     

Optimal portfolio execution under time-varying liquidity constraints

In this article, we take an algorithmic approach to solve the problem of optimal execution under time-varying constraints on the depth of a limit order book (LOB). Our algorithms are within the resilience model proposed by Obizhaeva and Wang (2013) with a more realistic assumption on the order book depth; the amount of liquidity provided by an LOB market is finite at all times. For the simplest case where the order book depth stays at a fixed level for the entire trading horizon, we reduce the optimal execution problem into a one-dimensional root-finding problem which can be readily solved by standard numerical algorithms. When the depth of the order book is monotone in time, we apply the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions to narrow down the set of candidate strategies. Then, we use a dichotomy-based search algorithm to pin down the optimal one. For the general case, we start from the optimal strategy subject to no liquidity constraints and iterate over execution strategy by sequentially adding more constraints to the problem in a specific fashion until primal feasibility is achieved. Numerical experiments indicate that our algorithms give comparable results to those of current existing convex optimization toolbox CVXOPT with significantly lower time complexity.     

Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection

This paper assesses optimal life cycle consumption and portfolio allocations when households have access to Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) variable annuities over their adult lifetimes. Our contribution is to evaluate demand for these products which provide access to equity investments with money-back guarantees, longevity risk hedging, and partially-refundable premiums, in a realistic world with uncertain labor and capital market income as well as mortality risk. Others have predicted that consumers will only purchase such annuities late in life, but we show that they will optimally purchase GMWBs prior to retirement, consistent with their recent rapid uptick in sales. Additionally, many individuals optimally adjust their portfolios and consumption streams along the way by taking cash withdrawals from the products. These products can substantially enhance consumption, by up to 10% for those who experience highly unfavorable experiences in the stock market.     

稳定分布的多期投资组合模型及其应用

本文研究了多期投资组合模型的问题.利用非正态稳定分布和参数估计的方法,建立了市场上含一个无风险证券和多个风险证券时多期投资组合的模型,对于描述风险证券所具有的偏态和过度峰态的非正态特征及其股市中的应用起到了作用.     

The long‐term extreme price risk measure of portfolio in inventory financing: An application to dynamic impawn rate interval

Different from the short‐term risk measure for traditional financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.), the key to illiquid inventory portfolio traded in the over‐the‐counter markets is to estimate the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility. In this article, a new long‐term extreme price risk (value at risk and conditional value at risk) measure method for inventory portfolio and an application to dynamic impawn rate interval are proposed. To realize this, we first establish AutoRegressive Moving Average‐Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity‐Extreme Value Theory model and multivariatet‐Copula to depict the autocorrelation, fat tails, and volatility clustering of returns of inventories and the nonlinear dependence structure of inventories. Furthermore, we obtain the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility via Monte Carlo simulation instead of square‐root‐of time rule. The results show that, first, benefits from risk diversification is significant; second, long‐term extreme price risk measure of inventory portfolio via Monte Carlo method outperforms the square‐root‐of time rule; the last is that the dynamic rate interval based on the long‐term price risk is superior to the crude rules of thumb in terms of reducing efficiency loss and improving risk coverage. In summary, this article provides a new quantitative framework for managing the risk of portfolio in inventory financing practice for banks constrained by risk limitation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 20: 17–34, 2015     

针对限制幅值磁共振脉冲的优化设计

在磁共振脉冲优化领域,优化脉冲普遍存在幅值过大的问题,这极大地限制了优化脉冲的使用范围。为了限制优化脉冲的幅值,扩大其应用范围,提出了一种基于L-BFGS-B数值算法的脉冲优化设计方法。首先基于Liouville-von Neuman方程,使用最优控制思想构建优化模型;然后使用L-BFGS-B算法,在限制幅值的条件下对优化模型进行数值迭代求解;最后以脉冲的激发效率以及激发轮廓的均匀性作为衡量优化脉冲优劣的标准对该方法进行仿真和实验验证。结果表明,采用该方法获得的优化脉冲在幅值被限制的前提下,仍能获得较传统磁共振脉冲更好的共振激发效果,进而增强信号的灵敏度,提高图像的质量。     

基于两时段的WCVaR风险分析及其应用

针对随机变量的分布信息不完全的情况下,提出了两时段的Worst-Case Conditional Valueat-Risk(WCVaR)指标,并建立了两时段的风险-利润投资组合优化模型,该模型是一高维问题,具有复杂的优化结构.在损失函数为线性以及随机变量为离散界约束分布的假设下,运用最优化对偶理论将具有多层min-ma...