基于突变级数-灰靶的生鲜电商O2O成熟度模型

为了对生鲜农产品电商O2O水平做出评估,本文设计了生鲜电商与传统流通体系融合发展的成熟度模型,确定了成熟度模型五个层级的十七个关键过程域及其目标。通过实例,运用突变级数法和灰靶决策对超市生鲜农产品020的成熟度进行了评估,使其发现经营过程中的薄弱环节并改善,向成熟度更高一层级迈进。结合突变级数和灰靶决策的成熟度模型避免了赋权的主观性,既提高了生鲜农产品电商与传统流通体系融合发展成熟度模型评估的准确性,又不失可靠性、合理性以及科学性,具有重要的实用价值。     

THE INSURANCE VALUE OF BIODIVERSITY IN THE PROVISION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

ABSTRACT. Biodiversity provides insurance against the uncertain provision of ecosystem services which are being used by risk‐averse economic agents. I present a conceptual ecological‐economic model that combines (i) current results from ecology about the relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provision of ecosystem services with (ii) economic methods to study decision‐making under uncertainty. In this framework I (1) determine the insurance value of biodiversity, (2) study the optimal allocation of funds in the trade‐off between investing into biodiversity protection and the purchase of financial insurance, and (3) analyze the effect of different institutional regimes in the market for financial insurance on biodiversity protection. I conclude that biodiversity acts as a form of natural insurance for risk‐averse ecosystem managers against the over‐ or under‐provision with ecosystem services. Therefore, biodiversity has an insurance value, which is a value component in addition to the usual value arguments, such as direct or indirect use or non‐use values. In this respect, biodiversity and financial insurance are substitutes. Hence, the availability, and exact institutional design, of financial insurance influence the level of biodiversity protection.     

电商生态系统中核心种群间信用机制的动态演化博弈

网购方便快捷,然而电商平台的假货现象、诚信危机、规范缺失等问题则严重困扰整个电商生态系统,譬如拼多多赴美上市后饱受争议,电商平台中的“雷碧、康帅傅、粤利粤、脉劫”等产品长期存在。信用对电子商务至关重要,电商平台的信用监管责任已不容忽视。因此,本文基于博弈论将消费者投诉引入电商平台信用监管机制,构建了信息不对称下以电商平台、商家和消费者为主体的三方演化博弈模型;分析了在电商平台积极监管和消费者投诉双重监管条件下,各主体博弈策略选择与行为演化的影响因素及趋于稳定状态的条件,并进行演化仿真分析和数值模拟。研究表明:商家选择“诚信”策略的种群规模与电商平台的监管概率和消费者选择“投诉”策略的种群规模息息相关;建立商家诚信奖励和失信惩罚机制、信用保证金机制、消费者投诉反馈机制、严厉打击商家私下补贴,降低消费者及公众的参与成本,能够有效推动商家诚信经营。     

C2C模式下卖家信誉建立与提升策略研究

当前信誉已成为电子商务发展中不可回避的问题.C2C模式下,信誉是交易进行的基础,它直接关系着交易的安全有效.从卖家收益的视角出发,运用博弈理论分析了C2C模式下卖家信誉的演化过程,提出了惩罚和信任两种策略的适用条件.结果表明对于新进入的卖家,发表承诺和买方的惩罚能够促使其建立信誉,而对于已具有一定信誉值的卖家而言,买家的充分的信任和积极评价将是其维持和提升信誉的动力来源.     

基于利他偏好的电商供应链最优决策与契约协调

构建了由一个占主导地位的电商平台和一个处于跟随地位的制造商组成的Stackelberg主从博弈模型,研究了电商平台有无利他偏好时电商供应链的最优决策和契约协调问题,并通过数值算例验证了本文的主要结论.研究表明:电商平台的利他偏好行为能够促使自身服务水平提高、正向影响制造商的最优销售价格并削弱自身利润.但电商平台的让利行为能够提高制造商的利润水平、缓和供应链冲突并改善供应链整体绩效."销售佣金比例+服务成本共担"契约能够完美的协调电商供应链,使双方最优利润获得帕累托改进,从而保证电商平台有足够的激励执行利他偏好行为.另外,进一步分析发现电商平台的利他偏好正向影响制造商支付给电商平台的固定技术服务费、制造商占有的电商供应链利润份额和服务成本分担比例,负向影响自身的销售佣金比例.     

Speciation analysis of mercury in sediments, zoobenthos and river water samples by high-performance liquid chromatography hyphenated to atomic fluorescence spectrometry following preconcentration by solid phase extraction

A high-pressure microwave digestion was applied for microwave-assisted extraction (MAE) of mercury species from sediments and zoobenthos samples. A mixture containing 3 mol L⁻¹ HCl, 50% aqueous methanol and 0.2 mol L⁻¹ citric acid (for masking co-extracted Fe³⁺) was selected as the most suitable extraction agent. The efficiency of proposed extraction method was better than 95% with R.S.D. below 6%. A preconcentration method utilizing a “homemade” C18 solid phase extraction (SPE) microcolumns was developed to enhance sensitivity of the mercury species determination using on-column complex formation of mercury-2-mercaptophenol complexes. Methanol was chosen for counter-current elution of the retained mercury complexes achieving a preconcentration factor as much as 1000. The preconcentration method was applied for the speciation analysis of mercury in river water samples. The high-performance liquid chromatography-cold vapour atomic fluorescence spectrometric (HPLC/CV-AFS) method was used for the speciation analysis of mercury. The complete separation of four mercury species was achieved by an isocratic elution of aqueous methanol (65%/35%) on a Zorbax SB-C18 column (4.6 mm × 150 mm, 5 μm) using the same complexation reagent (2-mercaptophenol). The limits of detection were 4.3 μg L⁻¹ for methylmercury (MeHg⁺), 1.4 μg L⁻¹ for ethylmercury (EtHg⁺), 0.8 μg L⁻¹ for inorganic mercury (Hg²⁺), 0.8 μg L⁻¹ for phenylmercury (PhHg⁺).     

THE ROLE OF GROUNDWATER‐DEPENDENT ECOSYSTEMS IN GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT

Ecosystems provide a wide range of services essential for a proper environmental, economic, and social performance. While the estimated global value of ecosystem services in 2014 is very significant, the annual loss of ecosystem services value is alarming. Our paper focuses on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs), some very important to society, which are under threat due to groundwater overexploitation. Considering the ecosystem health/status function is essential for sound groundwater regulation policy. The paper assesses the conjunctive management of groundwater and GDEs both in theory and in a relevant case study, using a certain type of an ecosystem health function. The theoretical results demonstrate how the change in the slope values of a general ecosystem health function affects the optimal groundwater management policy. The analysis also suggests a change in groundwater management strategies as a function of the value of the ecosystem. The theoretical findings are corroborated with data from an aquifer in Spain and its associated GDE—the Tablas de Daimiel Wetland. The paper highlights theoretically and empirically the necessity for a better understanding of GDEs behavior. It calls for groundwater regulation to protect these resources.     

陕西关中地区生态弹性计量模型与测算

关中地区是关中-天水经济区的主要部分,生态环境面临来自社会经济、自然环境等方面的压力,研究关中地区的生态弹性及其影响因素具有重要意义.通过GIS和RS技术,运用生态弹性度计算模型,测算了2000-2015年15 a间陕西省关中地区的生态弹性度,分析了市区间生态弹性度和生态弹性动态度的时空特征;探讨了土地利用变化和植被净初级生产力对生态弹性度的影响.研究结果表明：关中地区生态弹性度总体在4~8,从2000年的4.17~7.67升至2015年的5.94~7.52,总体呈上升趋势,生态环境有所改善.区域生态弹性受土地利用方式和NPP的影响,其中林地对区域生态弹性的提高影响最大,草地、耕地次之.通过植树造林增加建成区植被覆盖面积,有益于改善区域生态环境,提高区域生态弹性度.     

体内和体外生物测定在环境监测中的应用

生物测定在环境毒物学研究中普遍用于检测人为污染物对个别生物体和生态系统的影响.这些测定适用于个别化学品或复杂的混合物(如废水)对有代表性的生物系统或整个生物体所引起的影响,并普遍应用于环境监测项目.生物测定可在生物体外或生物体内进行,前者是在实验室内利用细胞培养技术,后者除可在实验室内进行还可应用在真实的环境中.体外生物测定往往是用来研究环境样品中的污染物对生物机制的具体影响,如受体结合特性.而体内活性生物测定则提供了一个更加具体化的综合生物反应.然而,这两种类型的生物测定法可以测量许多不同的生物指标,如对生物生长及发育的影响、内分泌功能和DNA损伤.无论是在体内和体外生物测定都分别有其特有的优点和缺点,其中一些测定法可以使用于毒性鉴定和评价程序.本文简要介绍了体内和体外生物测定方法的基本特点及其在环境监测中的应用实例,指出化学物质如何影响有机体及生态系统的结构和功能,认为广泛发展更能充分反映生态系统生物多样性的生物测定方法,将有助于更准确地了解环境污染物对环境的潜在影响.     

Dynamics of a prey-predator system under Poisson white noise excitation

The classical Lotka-Volterra （LV） model is a well-known mathematical model for prey-predator ecosystems. In the present paper, the pulse-type version of stochastic LV model, in which the effect of a random natural environment has been modeled as Poisson white noise, is in- vestigated by using the stochastic averaging method. The averaged generalized It6 stochastic differential equation and Fokkerlanck-Kolmogorov （FPK） equation are derived for prey-predator ecosystem driven by Poisson white noise. Approximate stationary solution for the averaged generalized FPK equation is obtained by using the perturbation method. The effect of prey self-competition parameter e2s on ecosystem behavior is evaluated. The analytical result is confirmed by corresponding Monte Carlo （MC） simulation.