弹性需求下的网络交通流逐日动态演化

在现实交通系统中,网络的交通需求是可变的,随交通运行状态而改变.针对需求可变情形,以含两条路径的简单路网为例,建立了弹性需求下的网络交通流逐日动态演化模型,基于非线性动力学理论,证明了动态演化模型的不动点存在且唯一,并且推导出了弹性需求下网络交通流动态演化的稳定性条件.通过数值实验,分析了网络交通流演化特征.研究发现:在一定条件下流量演化会出现分岔和混沌现象,并且出行者的出行需求对费用越敏感,系统演化越可能稳定;出行者路径选择的随机性越小,系统演化越不可能稳定;出行者对前一天实际费用的依赖程度越小,系统演化越可能稳定.     

网络交通流动态演化的混沌现象及其控制

本文以含2条平行路径的交通网络为例, 探讨了网络交通流逐日动态演化问题. 首先, 建立了动态系统模型来刻画网络交通流的演化过程, 动态系统模型的不动点就是随机用户平衡解, 证明了平衡解存在且唯一. 然后, 根据非线性动力学理论, 推导出了网络交通流演化的稳定性条件. 其次, 通过数值实验, 分析了网络交通流的演化特征, 发现了在一定条件下流量的周期振荡和混沌现象. 最后, 以OD需求为控制变量推导出了网络交通流混沌控制的方法.     

日常择路行为的多智能体模拟

日常路径选择是一个长期的、多体参与的非合作博弈过程.基于多智能体环境，对交通信息公开和不公开两种路径更新规则进行了模拟研究，结果表明，信息公开比不公开能够使路径流量更快地演化到logit随机用户均衡状态，但若对信息的依赖程度过大，则可能导致系统振荡；出行者完全依靠自身经验完成路径选择也可以使系统演化至稳定态，但代价是演化效率太低.因此，既要公开交通信息，又要注意合理使用信息.     

弯道交通流跟驰建模与稳定性分析

为发现弯道道路条件下交通流的演化特性及稳定条件,在全速度差最优模型的基础上,研究了弯道情况下的交通流跟驰模型表达式,并以状态空间法和控制系统的稳定性判据对其进行了稳定性分析,得到弯道情况下交通流的稳定条件,最后进行了数值模拟,验证了模型稳定条件的正确性.研究结果表明在相同的初始交通流密度情况下,弯道道路随着道路弧度的增大,交通流稳定性逐渐降低.     

基于多尺度熵的交通流复杂性分析

交通流演化复杂性的研究有助于深刻理解交通系统的内在演化规律,为交通流的预测和控制提供理论依据.多尺度熵方法在生理时间序列和计算机网络流量的分析中得到了广泛的应用.考虑到交通流中的车辆到达和计算机网络中的分组到达具有类似特性,本文以刹车灯模型的车头时距为分析对象,利用多尺度熵方法来分析交通流演化的复杂性.分析结果表明:1)车头时距的复杂性随着时间尺度的增加而降低,反映了交通流的短时间难预测性;2)当时间尺度较小时,车头时距复杂性在自由流时和同步流时差异不大,但是,随着时间尺度的增加,自由流时车头时距的熵值迅速下降,而同步流时车头时距的熵值下降较慢.这一特性对于识别自由流中是否产生了同步流有非常重要的参考价值.本文的研究可以为揭示交通流演化的复杂性提供新的思路和方法.     

结合可视图的多状态交通流时间序列特性分析

交通流时间序列的研究主要采用数据挖掘和机器学习的方法,这些"黑箱"挖掘方法很难直观反映序列特性.为增强交通流时间序列及其特征分析的可视化性,结合可视图理论来构建交通流时间序列的关联网络,从复杂网络角度实现交通流时间序列的特性分析.在网络构建的过程中,考虑到不同交通状态下交通流表征具有的差异性,首先利用交通流参量的相关性对交通流状态进行分类,然后构建不同交通状态下的时间序列复杂网络,并对这些网络的特征属性给出统计分析,如度分布、聚类系数、网络直径、模块化等.研究表明,可视图法可为交通流时间序列映射到网络提供有效途径,并且不同状态下交通流时间序列构建的复杂网络的模块化、聚类系数和度分布等统计特征呈现一定的变化规律,为交通流运行态势的研究提供了可视化的分析角度.     

两相流有限穿越可视图演化动力学研究

针对小管径两相流流动特性, 全新优化设计弧形对壁式电导传感器. 通过动态实验在获取传感器测量信号的基础上, 采用有限穿越可视图理论构建对应于不同流型的两相流复杂网络. 通过分析发现, 有限穿越可视图网络异速生长指数和网络平均度值的联合分布可实现对小管径两相流的流型辨识; 有限穿越可视图度分布曲线峰值可有效刻画与泡径大小分布相关的流动物理结构细节特征; 网络平均度值可表征流动结构的宏观特性; 网络异速生长指数对流体动力学复杂性十分敏感, 可揭示不同流型演化过程中的细节演化动力学特性. 两相流测量信号的有限穿越可视图分析为揭示两相流流型的形成及演化动力学机理提供了新途径. 关键词： 两相流 复杂网络 有限穿越可视图 网络异速生长指数     

基于演化博弈的社交网络模型演化研究

社会网络研究的兴起,为网络演化规律研究提供了有效工具,但大多数研究集中从宏观机制评估网络演化的动态过程. 本文基于公共品博弈,通过演化博弈与网络拓扑共演化方式,从微观角度提出了多社区动态网络演化模型（dMCPGG）. 即以节点间演化博弈为动力,修改节点间边的关系,驱动网络拓扑演化. 考虑到网络异质性,采用基于拓扑势的偏好规则更准确全面的描述节点影响力. 通过数值模拟和仿真实验,验证了本模型的合理性,不仅重现了无标度网络及随机网络的节点度、聚类系数及平均路径长度的结构特性,还准确捕捉到真实社交网络的演化过程. 关键词： 公共品博弈 拓扑势 偏好选择 共演化     

基于信息熵的社交网络观点演化模型

随着网络服务的发展,社交网络逐渐成为信息传播的新媒介.因此,研究网络舆情演化具有重要意义和实用价值.为了更好地研究网络舆论,在信息熵的基础上,提出了一个社交网络观点演化模型.此模型存在以下两个特点:一是可以反映个体面对正负两种观点趋向做出抉择时的心理过程;二是可以反映个体形成新观点时主观因素和客观因素的影响.在仿真实验中,讨论了舆论环境对个体观点演化的影响,初始观点和自信度对观点演化的影响,以及意见领袖对群体观点演化的影响.实验结果表明,该模型可以反映真实社交网络中个体的心理学特征,比如个体的观点形成会受到舆论环境的影响,自信的个体不愿意接受他人的观点,当意见领袖存在时群体的观点会受到影响等.     

考虑车与车互联通讯技术的交通流跟驰模型

基于Newell跟驰模型,建立考虑车与车互联(vehicle-to-vehicle,V2V)通讯技术的单车道跟驰模型.根据V2V技术的特征,引入参数α以表征驾驶员在收到V2V技术所提供的实时交通信息后的提前反应程度.根据线性稳定分析方法,得到V2V跟驰模型的中性稳定条件.通过计算机的模拟,研究V2V技术对交通流运行的影响,分析小扰动下V2V跟驰模型对参数变化的敏感性,研究不同α取值下交通流密度波及迟滞回环的变化.研究发现:1)与全速度差跟驰模型相比,在引入V2V后,交通流在加速起步、减速刹车及遇到突发事件时,车辆运行的安全性和舒适性均得到不同程度的提升;2)V2V跟驰模型对参数α及T的变化较为敏感,且在交通流较为拥堵时,V2V技术的引入可以提升交通流的平均速度;3)参数α的增大、T的减小可以有效提升V2V跟驰模型在不同交通环境下的运行稳定性.由于可以实时地获取交通流运行的状态并针对性地改变车辆自身的运行,V2V交通流跟驰模型提升了交通流运行的稳定性.     

The Stability of Multi-modal Traffic Network

There is an explicit and implicit assumption in multimodal traffic equilibrium models, that is, if the equilibrium exists, then it will also occur. The assumption is very idealized; in fact, it may be shown that the quite contrary could happen, because in multimodal traffic network, especially in mixed traffic conditions the interaction among traffic modes is asymmetric and the asymmetric interaction may result in the instability of traffic system. In this paper, to study the stability of multimodal traffic system, we respectively present the travel cost function in mixed traffic conditions and in traffic network with dedicated bus lanes. Based on a day-to-day dynamical model, we study the evolution of daily route choice of travelers in multimodal traffic network using 10000 random initial values for different cases. From the results of simulation, it can be concluded that the asymmetric interaction between the cars and buses in mixed traffic conditions can lead the traffic system to instability when traffic demand is larger. We also study the effect of travelers' perception error on the stability of multimodal traffic network. Although the larger perception error can alleviate the effect of interaction between cars and buses and improve the stability of traffic system in mixed traffic conditions, the traffic system also become instable when the traffic demand is larger than a number. For all cases simulated in this study, with the same parameters, traffic system with dedicated bus lane has better stability for traffic demand than that in mixed traffic conditions. We also find that the network with dedicated bus lane has higher portion of travelers by bus than it of mixed traffic network. So it can be concluded that building dedicated bus lane can improve the stability of traffic system and attract more travelers to choose bus reducing the traffic congestion.     

The Stability of Multi-modal Traffic Network

There is an explicit and implicit assumption in multimodal traffic equilibrium models, that is, if the equilibrium exists, then it will also occur. The assumption is very idealized; in fact, it may be shown that the quite contrary could happen, because in multimodal traffic network, especially in mixed traffic conditions the interaction among traffic modes is asymmetric and the asymmetric interaction may result in the instability of traffic system. In this paper, to study the stability of multimodal traffic system, we respectively present the travel cost function in mixed traffic conditions and in traffic network with dedicated bus lanes. Based on a day-to-day dynamical model, we study the evolution of daily route choice of travelers in multimodal traffic network using 10000 random initial values for different cases. From the results of simulation, it can be concluded that the asymmetric interaction between the cars and buses in mixed traffic conditions can lead the traffic system to instability when traffic demand is larger. We also study the effect of travelers' perception error on the stability of multimodal traffic network. Although the larger perception error can alleviate the effect of interaction between cars and buses and improve the stability of traffic system in mixed traffic conditions, the traffic system also become instable when the traffic demand is larger than a number. For all cases simulated in this study, with the same parameters, traffic system with dedicated bus lane has better stability for traffic demand than that in mixed traffic conditions. We also find that the network with dedicated bus lane has higher portion of travelers by bus than it of mixed traffic network. So it can be concluded that building dedicated bus lane can improve the stability of traffic system and attract more travelers to choose bus reducing the traffic congestion.     

Behaviours in a dynamical model of traffic assignment with elastic demand

This paper investigates the dynamical behaviour of network traffic flow. Assume that trip rates may be influenced by the level of service on the network and travellers are willing to take a faster route. A discrete dynamical model for the day-to-day adjustment process of route choice is presented. The model is then applied to a simple network for analysing the day-to-day behaviours of network flow. It finds that equilibrium is arrived if network flow consists of travellers not very sensitive to the differences of travel cost. Oscillations and chaos of network traffic flow are also found when travellers are sensitive to the travel cost and travel demand in a simple network.     

An optimal network for passenger traffic

The optimal solution of an inter-city passenger transport network has been studied using Zipf’s law for the city populations and the Gravity law describing the fluxes of inter-city passenger traffic. Assuming a fixed value for the cost of transport per person per kilometer we observe that while the total traffic cost decreases, the total wiring cost increases with the density of links. As a result the total cost to maintain the traffic distribution is optimal at a certain link density which vanishes on increasing the network size. At a finite link density the network is scale-free. Using this model the air-route network of India has been generated and an one-to-one comparison of the nodal degree values with the real network has been made.     

Optimal traffic networks topology: A complex networks perspective

We investigate and analyse an optimal traffic network structure for resisting traffic congestion with different volumes of traffic. For this aim, we introduce a cost function and user-equilibrium assignment (UE) which ensures the flow balance on traffic systems. Our finding is that an optimal network is strongly dependent on the total system flow. And the random network is most desirable when the system flow is small. But for the larger volume of traffic, the network with power-law degree distribution is the optimal one. Further study indicates, for scale-free networks, that the degree distribution exponent has large effects on the congestion of traffic network. Therefore, the volume of traffic and characteristic of network determine the optimal network structure so as to minimize the side-effect produced by traffic congestion.     

A weighted network evolution with traffic flow

In this paper, we propose a simple weighted network model that generalizes the complex network model evolution with traffic flow previously presented to investigate the relationship between traffic flow and network structure. In the model, the nodes in the network are represented by the traffic flow states, the links in the network are represented by the transform of the traffic flow states, and the traffic flow transported when performing the transform of the traffic flow states is considered as the weight of the link. Several topological features of this generalized weighted model, such as the degree distribution and strength distribution, have been numerically studied. A scaling behavior between the strength and degree s∼klogk is obtained. By introducing some constraints to the generalized weighted model, we study its subnetworks and find that the scaling behavior between the strength and degree is conserved, though the topology properties are quite sensitive to the constraints.     

Scale-Free Properties in Traffic System

In this work, we propose a new model of evolution networks, which is based on the evolution of the traffic flow. In our method, the network growth does not take into account preferential attachment, and the attachment of new node is independent of the degree of nodes. Our aim is that employing the theory of evolution network, we give a further understanding about the dynamical evolution of the traffic flow. We investigate the probability distributions and scaling properties of the proposed model The simulation results indicate that in the proposed model, the distribution of the output connections can be well described by scale-free distribution. Moreover, the distribution of the connections is largely related to the traffic flow states, such as the exponential distribution （i.e., the scale-free distribution） and random distribution etc.     

Scaling breakdown in flow fluctuations on complex networks

We propose a model of random diffusion to investigate flow fluctuations in complex networks. We derive an analytical law showing that the dependence of fluctuations with the mean traffic in a network is ruled by the delicate interplay of three factors, respectively, of dynamical, topological and statistical nature. In particular, we demonstrate that the existence of a power-law scaling characterizing the flow fluctuations at every node in the network cannot be claimed. We show the validity of this scaling breakdown under quite general topological and dynamical situations by means of different traffic algorithms and by analyzing real data.