混合交通流时间序列的去趋势波动分析

应用去趋势波动分析法研究交通流时间序列的复杂性,探讨了混合交通流时间序列演变行为的标度指数.根据标度指数的变化特征,进而揭示交通流时间序列所具有的长程相关性和短程相关性.通过分析发现,存在一密度ρ,当ρ₁<ρ<ρ₂时,交通流时间序列具有长程相关性;而当ρ<ρ₁或ρ>ρ₂时,交通流时间序列具有短程相关性,即密度的变化影响着标度指数的变化.另外分析了在不同慢车比率条件下时间序列的标度指数,发现慢车比率的变化 关键词： 混合交通流 去趋势波动分析 时间序列 长程相关     

The Stability of Multi-modal Traffic Network

There is an explicit and implicit assumption in multimodal traffic equilibrium models, that is, if the equilibrium exists, then it will also occur. The assumption is very idealized; in fact, it may be shown that the quite contrary could happen, because in multimodal traffic network, especially in mixed traffic conditions the interaction among traffic modes is asymmetric and the asymmetric interaction may result in the instability of traffic system. In this paper, to study the stability of multimodal traffic system, we respectively present the travel cost function in mixed traffic conditions and in traffic network with dedicated bus lanes. Based on a day-to-day dynamical model, we study the evolution of daily route choice of travelers in multimodal traffic network using 10000 random initial values for different cases. From the results of simulation, it can be concluded that the asymmetric interaction between the cars and buses in mixed traffic conditions can lead the traffic system to instability when traffic demand is larger. We also study the effect of travelers' perception error on the stability of multimodal traffic network. Although the larger perception error can alleviate the effect of interaction between cars and buses and improve the stability of traffic system in mixed traffic conditions, the traffic system also become instable when the traffic demand is larger than a number. For all cases simulated in this study, with the same parameters, traffic system with dedicated bus lane has better stability for traffic demand than that in mixed traffic conditions. We also find that the network with dedicated bus lane has higher portion of travelers by bus than it of mixed traffic network. So it can be concluded that building dedicated bus lane can improve the stability of traffic system and attract more travelers to choose bus reducing the traffic congestion.     

Complex Behaviour for the Origin and Destination Matrix Estimation Problem

The origin and destination （O-D） matrix estimation is an important problem in traffic networks. We apply the gravitation model to express the preference attachment and to analyse the statistical characteristics of the traffic flow in each O-D pair in theory. It is found that the distribution of the future O-D matrix decays as a power law. Additionally, different exponents are obtained for both the constant and variable link cost.     

基于内生参考点的交通网络均衡模型

应用累积前景理论研究了随机交通网络中出行者有限理性的路径选择行为,选择期望 超额出行时间作为参考点,反映出行者同时考虑出行时间的可靠性和不可靠性,建立了基于累积前景理论的随机网络均衡及其等价的变分不等式模型,运用基于连续平均法的启发式算法求解,并给出算例验证了该模型和算法,最后分析了有限理性的假设和内生的参考点对出行者路径选择行为和随机网络均衡的影响．     

Evolution of network from node division and generation

Aimed at lowering the effect of `rich get richer' in scale-free networks with the Barab\'{a}si and Albert model, this paper proposes a new evolving mechanism, which includes dividing and preference attachment for the growth of a network. A broad scale characteristic which is independent of the initial network topology is obtained with the proposed model. By simulating, it is found that preferential attachment causes the appearance of the scale-free characteristic, while the dividing will decrease the power-law behaviour and drive the evolution of broad scale networks.     

Random and Preferential Attachment Networks with Aging

A new model for network generation is proposed by considering both the preferential and random attachments with aging. The connectivity distribution is obtained with the mean-field theory. The simulation results show that the model can be used to generate such networks with different topology structures as random and scale-free ones. The networks with different densities (i.e., the average connectivity degrees) can also be generated by the model.