一类随机利率下的确定年金

我们考虑在一定的约束条件下利率是随机变量的某些确定年金的现值的计算问题,目的在于研究给付现值的期望和方差.本文给出两种方法计算在某些年内一类延付年金的现值之和的期望和方差,获得了给付现值的方差的递推关系,并且解决了这些关系,这在计算简单方面明显地更好.     

一般寿险保单前瞻亏损的分布及计算

本文从一般完全离散保单在各评估日的现金流模型出发 ,讨论了在随机利率环境下保单前瞻亏损的期望与方差的计算方法 ,给出了相应的公式 ,并结合具体实例进行了计算     

模糊随机环境下的连续型变额生命年金

采用模糊随机理论,构建连续支付型变额生命年金模型.假定利率为三角模糊数,死亡率为随机变量.结合精算理论,给出了连续支付型变额生命年金精算现值的期望、方差以及分布函数和分位数的模糊表达式.最后,通过实证分析计算出一个在养老保险中常见的生命年金的相关值,验证模型的可行性.     

封闭型保单组未来损失现值向量的联合分布及渐近分布

本文针对封闭型保单组,利用历年死亡人数随机向量D,将保单组的未来给付现值随机变量和未来损失现值随机变量表达为某个满秩矩阵和D的乘积,根据D服从多项分布的性质,得到未来损失现值随机向量渐近服从多元正态分布的结果,为分析责任准备金提供了一个新的框架.     

基于模糊实物期权的IT企业战略投资决策

在模糊框架下,提出了一种启发性的实物期权方法,根据梯形模糊数估计期望现金流和期望成本的现值,借助模糊数的数学期望值和方差,确定最佳执行时间,最后就该方法在欧洲某IT电讯公司投资战略中进行实证分析.     

保费收入随机化的风险模型

本文推广了龚日朝(2001)的风险模型,把保费随机化,利用鞅方法讨论了保单来到过程与索赔来到过程均为Po isson过程的破产概率.接着又讨论了G erber-Sh iu期望折现函数,推导出了其满足的积分方程,以及L ap lace变换.最后利用随机游动的知识,讨论了当保单来到过程与索赔来到过程为同一更新过程时的破产概率.     

方差保费准则下最优分红、注资和再保险策略

本文研究保险公司的最优分红、注资和再保险策略问题.保险公司可以通过再保险安排控制自身的风险暴露,它与再保险公司在方差保费准则下采用不同的参数进行费率定价.保险公司管理者也可以通过分红或注资控制公司资产,控制过程会消耗比例交易费和固定交易费.破产前分红现值与注资现值期望之差视为保险公司的价值.在最大化公司价值目标下,利用脉冲控制理论,本文找到最优的分红、注资和再保险策略及公司价值的最大值.     

息力函数综合寿险模型

本以即时给付的综合人寿保险模型为研究对象，考虑到随机利率的影响，用负二项分布和Gamma分布联合建立息力积累函数模型，求出了分期缴费精算现值和给付保险金的精算现值表达式，并可由平衡方程进行保险定价。     

离散型随机变量的期望与方差的应用

离散型随机变量期望和方差的应用问题 ,一般应先分析题意 ,明确题目欲求的是期望还是方差问题 .如果要求的是某数量指标的平均值 ,则属于期望问题 ;如果要求的是数量指标的离散程度或稳定性 ,则属于方差问题 .在此基础上 ,将题中考察的数量指标用随机变量表示 ,把实际问题转化为求随机变量的期望和方差 .常用的解法有 :用定义直接求解 ,代入公式求解 ,建立函数关系求解 .例 1　袋中有 1个白球和 4个黑球 ,每次从其中任取一个球 ,直到取到白球为止 ,求取球次数的期望及方差 .分析　由于题中并未指明取出的黑球是否放回 ,所以本题应分两种情况…     

具有随机控制函数的受控分枝过程

本文研究了具有随机控制函数的受控分枝过程的各类概率母函数间的关系.利用对概率母函数求导的方法,获得了过程的期望和方差,推广了该过程概率母函数和矩量的一些基本结果.     

Hedging insurance books

Complex insurance risks typically have multiple exposures. If available, options on multiple underliers with a short maturity can be employed to hedge this exposure. More precisely, the present value of aggregate payouts is hedged using least squares, ask price minimization, and ask price minimization constrained to long only option positions. The proposed hedges are illustrated for hypothetical Variable Annuity contracts invested in the nine sector ETF’s of the US economy. We simulate the insurance accounts by simulating risk-neutrally the underliers by writing them as transformed correlated normals; the physical and risk-neutral evolution is taken in the variance gamma class as a simple example of a non-Gaussian limit law. The hedges arising from ask price minimization constrained to long only option positions delivers a least cost and most stable result.     

风险相依下再保险双方的联合最优再保险问题

结合保险人和再保险人的共同利益,研究了具有两类相依险种风险模型下的最优再保险问题.假定再保险公司采用方差保费原理收取保费,利用复合Poisson模型和扩散逼近模型两种方式去刻画保险公司和再保险公司的资本盈余过程,在期望效用最大准则下,证明了最优再保险策略的存在性和唯一性,通过求解Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman（HJB）方程,得到了两种模型下相应的最优再保险策略及值函数的明晰解答,并给出了数值算例及分析.     

随机利率下增额寿险现值函数矩的一些结果

本文对随机利率采用 Wiener过程和 Orentein- Uhlenbeck过程建模 ,得到了增额寿险现值函数的矩的一些结果     

Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure with a heavy tailed loss

Recently Haezendonck–Goovaerts (H–G) risk measure has received much attention in (re)insurance and portfolio management. Some nonparametric inferences have been proposed in the literature. When the loss variable does not have enough moments, which depends on the involved Young function, the nonparametric estimator in Ahn and Shyamalkumar (2014) has a nonnormal limit, which challenges interval estimation. Motivated by the fact that many loss variables in insurance and finance could have a heavier tail such as an infinite variance, this paper proposes a new estimator which estimates the tail by extreme value theory and the middle part nonparametrically. It turns out that the proposed new estimator always has a normal limit regardless of the tail heaviness of the loss variable. Hence an interval with asymptotically correct confidence level can be obtained easily either by the normal approximation method via estimating the asymptotic variance or by a bootstrap method. A simulation study and real data analysis confirm the effectiveness of the proposed new inference procedure for estimating the H–G risk measure.     

Optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance and investment polices under the CEV model

This paper focuses on risk control problem of the insurance company in enterprise risk management. The insurer manages its financial risk through purchasing excess-of-loss reinsurance, and investing its wealth in the constant elasticity of variance stock market. We model risk process by Brownian motion with drift, and study the optimization problem of maximizing the exponential utility of terminal wealth under the controls of reinsurance and investment. Using stochastic control theory, we obtain explicit expressions for optimal polices and value function. We also show that the optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance is always better than optimal proportional reinsurance. And some numerical examples are given.     

基于模糊收益率的养老保险基金投资研究

结合中国养老保险基金投资现状,考虑预期收益率是模糊数的情形,利用可能性均值和可能性方差作为投资组合的预期收益率和风险,建立均值-方差组合投资模型.最后,利用lingo软件进行数值分析,表明此模型具有一定的实际应用价值.     

递增年金的双随机模型

The dual random models about the life insurance and social pension insurance have received considerable attention in the recent articles on actuarial theory and applications. This paper discusses a general kind of increasing annuity based on its force of interest accumulationfunction as a general random process. The dual random model of the present value of the benefits of the increasing annuity has been set, and their moments have been calculated under certainconditions.     

Robust optimal investment–reinsurance strategies for an insurer with multiple dependent risks

This paper considers a robust optimal investment and reinsurance problem with multiple dependent risks for an Ambiguity-Averse Insurer (AAI), who is uncertain about the model parameters. We assume that the surplus of the insurance company can be allocated to the financial market consisting of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process satisfies square root factor process. Under the objective of maximizing the expected utility of the terminal surplus, by adopting the technique of stochastic control, closed-form expressions of the robust optimal strategy and the corresponding value function are derived. The verification theorem is also provided. Finally, by presenting some numerical examples, the impact of some parameters on the optimal strategy is illustrated and some economic explanations are also given. We find that the robust optimal reinsurance strategies under the generalized mean–variance premium are very different from that under the variance premium principle. In addition, ignoring model uncertainty risk will lead to significant utility loss for the AAI.     

Viscosity solution and impulse control of the diffusion model with reinsurance and fixed transaction costs

We consider an optimal impulse control problem on reinsurance, dividend and reinvestment of an insurance company. To close reality, we add fixed and proportional transaction costs to this problem. The value of the company is associated with expected present value of net dividends pay out minus the net reinvestment capitals until ruin time. We focus on non-cheap proportional reinsurance. We prove that the value function is a unique solution to associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, and establish the regularity property of the viscosity solution under a weak assumption. We solve the non-uniformly elliptic equation associated with the impulse control problem. Finally, we derive the value function and the optimal strategy of the control problem.