模糊二人零和对策的纳什均衡求解

用三角模糊数刻画二人零和对策支付值的不确定性,提出了计算模糊二人零和对策纳什均衡解的多目标规划方法.给出了一种基于区间数比较的三角形模糊数排序方法,根据该方法将模糊二人零和对策转化为多目标线性规划.通过一个数值实例说明了该方法的有效性和实用性.     

区间运算和静力区间有限元

用均值和离差两参数表征区间变量的不确定性,根据区间运算规则,论证了区间变量的运算特性.将区间分析和有限元方法相结合,提出了非概率不确定结构的一种区间有限元分析方法.将区间有限元静力控制方程中n自由度不确定位移场特征参数的求解归结为求解一2n阶线性方程组.实例分析表明文中方法是有效和可行的.     

混合不确定性下基于区间证据随机抽样的统一赋权法

由于评价问题的复杂性,以及专家知识和经验的局限性,群决策信息中往往同时包含不同程度的不确定性。在区间证据理论框架下对认知不确定性信息、多区间概率信息、不完全信息等混合不确定信息进行统一表示,进而根据区间证据间的相似度对群决策信息进行融合;采用区间数对评语等级进行定量化,并根据融合结果构造个指标重要程度的概率分布函数;最后通过概率分布函数的蒙特卡洛随机抽样确定指标权重。算例分析结果表明了新方法的有效性。     

基于最小参数区间集的不确定结构响应分析

考虑到实际工程问题中普遍存在不确定性,完成了针对工程结构从定量化到传播的完整不确定性分析过程．通过建立包含全部有限样本点的最小区间/超立方体域来描述不确定参数的变化范围;借助于最小区间参数集,开展了不确定结构传播分析的研究工作以确定其最有利/不利响应．此外,进一步就给出的区间分析方法同经典概率方法的相容性进行了分析和探究．采用2个数值算例很好地论证了所述方法的正确性和可行性．     

可分解的区间冯·纽曼模型均衡解的存在性

本文研究具有可分解性质的区间冯·纽曼经济系统模型均衡解的存在性,并推导出两个重要而实用的判别定理,为研究不确定性经济系统模型提供了新工具.     

基于模糊模拟的风险投资项目决策

由于风险投资的高不确定性和风险性,使得人们难以准确预测风险投资项目的收益和状态概率,而只能得到其大致的区间范围。鉴于这种情况,本文将投资项目收益和状态概率描述为模糊变量,利用模糊变量的均值和方差建立了模糊风险投资决策模型,并给出利用模糊模拟方法计算的实例。     

利用概念图促进概率统计知识建构的探索

概率统计区别于学生先前所学的确定性数学,它属于不确定性数学,该课程中的结论形式往往会以"一定的概率成立"出现,如:参数θ的置信区间(θ,θ),它是指以一定的概率包含参数θ真值的随机区间,而不是一定包含参数θ真值的确定性区间.这与确定性数学有非常大的区别.学生学习概率统计,属于第一次接触不确定性数学,一时难以适从.学生不能很好地将所学的概念穿成串、结成网、变成结构化的知识铭记在脑海中,也不能很好地理解概念及概念间的关系,也就难于领会其中蕴含的概率统计思想,不能主动地形成概率思维和统计观念.一种认知工具--概念图恰好可以用来改善这一情状,促进学生的知识建构.     

区间合作对策核心存在性的进一步讨论

区间合作对策,是研究当联盟收益值为区间数情形时如何进行合理收益分配的数学模型。近年来,其解的存在性与合理性等问题引起了国内外专家的广泛关注。区间核心,是区间合作对策中一个非常稳定的集值解概念。本文首先针对区间核心的存在性进行深入的讨论,通过引入强非均衡,极小强均衡,模单调等概念,从不同角度给出判别区间核心存在性的充分条件。其次,通过引入相关参数,定义了广义区间核心,并给出定理讨论了区间核心与广义区间核心的存在关系。本文的结论将为进一步推动区间合作对策的发展,为解决区间不确定情形下的收益分配问题奠定理论基础。     

连续区间策略下二人零和对策问题研究

考虑连续区间策略下的二人零和对策问题,研究其均衡策略的存在性。首先分析了完全信息下的二人零和对策问题,证明了该问题均衡策略的存在性并给出求解方法。然后进一步研究了收益函数不确定的不完全信息二人零和对策问题,在各局中人都认为对方是风险厌恶型的假设下,分析该类对策纯策略均衡的存在性,并通过研究纯策略均衡存在的充要条件给出判断并寻找纯策略均衡解的方法。最后给出一个数值算例,验证本文所提出方法的可行性。     

区间概率信息条件下的风险型决策问题的解法探讨

区间概率信息条件下的决策问题是介于不确定型决策与风险型决策之间的一类特殊的决策问题。基于区间概率的定义及其数学特征,利用最大熵准则将区间概率转化为点概率,从而实现了区间概率信息条件决策问题的求解。     

Mathematical analysis of an eco-epidemiological predator–prey model with stage-structure and latency

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological predator–prey model with stage structure for the prey and a time delay describing the latent period of the disease is investigated. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of the trivial equilibrium, the predator-extinction equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is addressed. The existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium is established. By using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the trivial equilibrium, the predator-extinction equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of the model.     

一类带有一般接触率和常数输入的流行病模型的全局分析

借助极限系统理论和构造适当的Liapunov函数,对带有一般接触率和常数输入的SIR型和SIRS型传染病模型进行讨论．当无染病者输入时,地方病平衡点存在的阈值被找到A·D2对相应的SIR模型,关于无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性均得到充要条件;对相应的SIRS模型,得到无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件．当有染病者输入时,模型不存在无病平衡点．对相应的SIR模型,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;对相应的SIRS模型,得到地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件．     

基于训练和过滤的期望均衡及其实现路径

期望均衡是博弈局中人或局外人对于博弈均衡点的一致期望,强调互利共赢,它要求博弈群体的每个成员对期望均衡点有一个共同的预期.显然,基于纳什均衡的帕累托优化组合策略是一个比纳什均衡更有效的期望均衡.要实现期望均衡,可采用局中人参与的训练与学习使得群体的预期一致,也可采用第三方过滤器来达到期望目标.在期望均衡的概率分布下,个体行为的偏离不能比均衡态取得更多收益.否则,训练就是无效的,第三方过滤器就是不公平的.     

Global dynamics of a delayed predator–prey model with stage structure for the predator and the prey

A delayed predator–prey system with Holling type II functional response and stage structure for both the predator and the prey is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each feasible equilibrium of the system is discussed, and the existence of a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium is established. By means of the persistence theory for infinite dimensional systems, it is proven that the system is permanent if the coexistence equilibrium exists. By using suitable Lyapunov functions and the LaSalle invariant principle, it is shown that the trivial equilibrium is globally stable when both the predator–extinction equilibrium and the coexistence equilibrium do not exist, and that the predator–extinction equilibrium is globally stable when the coexistence equilibrium does not exist. Further, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the coexistence equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fuzzy weighted equilibrium multi-job assignment problem and genetic algorithm

In this paper, the equilibrium optimization problem is proposed and the assignment problem is extended to the equilibrium multi-job assignment problem, equilibrium multi-job quadratic assignment problem and the minimum cost and equilibrium multi-job assignment problem. Furthermore, the mathematical models of the equilibrium multi-job assignment problem and the equilibrium multi-job quadratic assignment problem with fuzzy parameters are formulated. Finally, a genetic algorithm is designed for solving the proposed programming models and some numerical examples are given to verify the efficiency of the designed algorithm.     

TIME INCONSISTENCY AND REPUTATION IN MONETARY POLICY: A STRATEGIC MODELLING IN CONTINUOUS TIME

This article develops a model to examine the equilibrium behavior of the time inconsistency problem in a continuous time economy with stochastic and endogenized dis-tortion. First, the authors introduce the notion of sequentially rational equilibrium, and show that the time inconsistency problem may be solved with trigger reputation strategies for stochastic setting. The conditions for the existence of sequentially rational equilibrium are provided. Then, the concept of sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium is introduced. The authors compare the relative stability between the cooperative behavior and uncooperative behavior, and show that the cooperative equilibrium in this monetary policy game is a sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium and the uncooper-ative equilibrium is sequentially rational stochastically unstable equilibrium. In the long run, the zero inflation monetary policies are inherently more stable than the discretion rules, and once established, they tend to persist for longer periods of the time.     

寡头垄断市场三度价格歧视动态博弈分析

对两寡头厂商2元市场用完全信息动态博弈的方法分析了实施三度价格歧视情形和统一定价情形的均衡产量,均衡价格和均衡总收益,并研究了这两种情形三个指标之间的关系.结果显示,在两个子市场的需求函数为线性需求的条件下,统一定价的市场均衡产量等于歧视定价的市场均衡产量;统一定价的均衡价格是歧视定价时两个子市场均衡价格的加权平均;统一定价的市场均衡总收益小于歧视定价的市场均衡总收益.     

Existence of Solutions and Algorithms for Bilevel Vector Equilibrium Problems: An Auxiliary Principle Technique

The main goal of this paper is to introduce and study bilevel vector equilibrium problems. We first establish some existence results for solutions of vector equilibrium problems and mixed vector equilibrium problems. We study the existence of solutions of bilevel vector equilibrium problems by considering a vector Thikhonov-type regularization procedure. By using this regularization procedure and existence results for mixed vector equilibrium problems, we establish some existence results for solutions of bilevel vector equilibrium problems. By using the auxiliary principle, we propose an algorithm for finding the approximate solutions of bilevel vector equilibrium problems. The strong convergence of the proposed algorithm is also studied.     

Existence of a Radner equilibrium in a model with transaction costs

We prove the existence of a Radner equilibrium in a model with proportional transaction costs on an infinite time horizon and analyze the effect of transaction costs on the endogenously determined interest rate. Two agents receive exogenous, unspanned income and choose between consumption and investing into an annuity. After establishing the existence of a discrete-time equilibrium, we show that the discrete-time equilibrium converges to a continuous-time equilibrium model. The continuous-time equilibrium provides an explicit formula for the equilibrium interest rate in terms of the transaction cost parameter. We analyze the impact of transaction costs on the equilibrium interest rate and welfare levels.     

A predator–prey–disease model with immune response in infected prey

In this paper, a predator–prey–disease model with immune response in the infected prey is formulated. The basic reproduction number of the within-host model is defined and it is found that there are three equilibria: extinction equilibrium, infection-free equilibrium and infection-persistent equilibrium. The stabilities of these equilibria are completely determined by the reproduction number of the within-host model. Furthermore, we define a basic reproduction number of the between-host model and two predator invasion numbers: predator invasion number in the absence of disease and predator invasion number in the presence of disease. We have predator and infection-free equilibrium, infection-free equilibrium, predator-free equilibrium and a co-existence equilibrium. We determine the local stabilities of these equilibria with conditions on the reproduction and invasion reproduction numbers. Finally, we show that the predator-free equilibrium is globally stable.