高原驻训航材有寿件需求预测研究

高原驻训航材保障中,有寿件重要度较高,部队必须携带足够的备件数量来满足任务需要.根据高原驻训条件下航材有寿件需求特点,将有寿件的需求分为到寿更换需求和随机故障消耗产生的需求两部分,分别用数学公式和仿真计算方法进行预测,再将两者结果相加为总需求量.通过实例分析验证,采用工程测算方法可以避免逐一分析器材寿命的繁杂,而单独考虑随机故障消耗可以进一步保证有寿件备件不短缺率在90%以上.该预测,该模型可以为航材有寿件到寿情况分析以及有寿件的携行方案制定提供参考.     

基于需求分布规律的石化企业备件库存优化研究

石化类企业备件管理的难度较大,主要原因在于其备件需求往往是间断、离散、随机产生.针对石化类企业备件的间断需求特点,提出Markov过程的bootstrap方法取得备件需求的分布规律,在此基础上构建了备件库存优化模型,利用某大型石化企业实际管理运行数据进行了算例及仿真计算,结果验证了备件需求规律统计方法和库存优化模型的优越性,对于该类企业的备件库存管理实践提供了一定的借鉴意义.     

基于贝塞尔曲线理论的备件需求模糊隶属度函数构建模型

用模糊理论描述备件需求是一种科学适用的方法,针对现有模糊变量隶属度函数构建方法的不足, 设计了基于贝塞尔曲线理论的备件需求模糊隶属度函数构建方法,给出了隶属度求解算法,分析了使拟合误差最小的控制点选择方法.同时通过实例验证以及与最小二乘法的对比分析,验证了贝塞尔曲线方法在构建备件需求模糊隶属度函数方面的有效性.此方法无需事先假设隶属度函数的形态,简单易用、使用灵活并且精度较高.     

一种基于随机森林的备件预测模型研究

对舰船零部件发生故障问题进行故障诊断,并对故障诊断结果进行分析,建立舰船零部件备件需求模型,给出零部件之间的发生故障概率的关系与备件需求特征;将随机森林回归原理应用到了舰船零部件的备件需求预测领域,构建了基于随机森林的预测模型,以及预测结果准确率的评价。用诊断结果数据对算法进行验证,结果表明,将随机森林算法运用到舰船的备件预测领域可以为舰船装备在一次海上任务期内备件配置问题提供参考价值。     

基于战役的多机种战伤备件需求模型

为了合理储备战时航材备件,通过分析战时故障备件的需求特点,改进了传统的单机故障备件需求模型.根据多机种协同作战任务的不同,引入备件工作运行比的概念,建立了基于作战任务的多机种故障备件需求模型.为解决多机种协同作战时的保障资源配置问题提供了思路和方法.     

基于干扰管理理论的航空备件模型参量扰动性分析

概述了干扰管理理论的内涵、意义以及目标,依据未来不确定因素引起飞机备件需求量变化以及备件供应时限性增强的实际情况,创建了时限一致度算子,优化了备件需求泊松分布模型,提高了备件供应的精确度,并选取了优化后的模型中的多个参量,进行了多因素的扰动性分析,最后构造了算例,验证了本方法的科学性和有效性.     

变参数随机服务系统最优设计

利用排队理论，建立了一个到达率递增、服务率不变、服务台数量递减的变参数随机服务系统最优设计模型。给出了满足投资有限，在一定时期内设备使用率和用户服务质量满足给定的要求，使用寿命达到设计的服务系统最优设计方案。     

三级备件保障系统下的备件库存优化模型

目前我军装备备件保障通常采用三级保障模式,以各级备件期望短缺数量之和最小为目标,研究在不同库存水平条件下,三级备件保障系统的备件库存优化模型.经示例分析,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性,该结果可为多级备件保障提供理论依据.     

基于灰色关联分析与PLS-LSSVM的航材备件需求预测模型

航材备件是保障航空装备日常训练和作战正常使用的重要影响因素,针对部分航材备件样本数据量少,影响因素多且复杂多变,预测结果与装备系统完好性要求偏差较大等问题.建立基于灰色关联分析(GRA)与偏最小二乘(PLS)及最小二乘向量机(LSSVM)相结合的航材备件预测模型,采集某无人机航材备件数据,通过对统计数据进行灰色关联分析,提取航材备件需求的相关因素作为模型训练样本,确定关键因素,利用偏最小二乘对关键因素特征提取,然后将偏最小二乘特征提取后的数据作为最小二乘向量机输入,进行模型构建及分析.通过实验验证了该方法的可行性与适用性,能够满足无人机航材备件预测的实际需要.     

视情维修条件下备件消耗规律

通过对某复杂装备中视换件修理方式的分析,将备件故障后维修消耗规律与备件视情维修消耗规律结合起来,研究备件总的消耗规律。并运用装备可靠性理论及概率论方法,建立了备件消耗规律数学模型。在此基础上给出了视换件储备数量的计算方法,解决了当前因视情维修条件下备件消耗规律不易获取,而导致视换件的储备方案难以制订的问题。最后举例说明了模型的适用性,为科学确定装备维修备件储存量提供了理论依据,且具有重要的指导作用。     

Optimising a general repair kit problem with a service constraint

Field services are a particular type of after-sales service performed at the customer’s location where technicians repair malfunctioning machines. The inventory decisions about which spare part types to take to the repair site and in what quantities is called the repair kit problem. This problem is characterized by an order-based performance measure since a customer is only satisfied when all required spare parts are available to fix the machine. As a result, the service level in the decision making process is defined as a job fill rate. In this paper we derive a closed-form expression for the expected service level and total costs for the repair kit problem in a general setting, where multiple units of each part type can be used in a multi-period problem. Such an all-or-nothing strategy is a new characteristic to investigate, but commonly used in practice. Namely, items are only taken from the inventory when all items to perform the repair are available in the right quantity. We develop a new algorithm to determine the contents of the repair kit both for a service and cost model while incorporating this new expression for the job fill rate. We show that the algorithm finds solutions which differ on average 0.2% from optimal costs. We perform a case study to test the performance of the algorithm in practice. Our approach results in service level improvements of more than 30% against similar holding costs.     

Use of the Transportation Method of Linear Programming in Production Planning: A Case Study<Superscript>†</Superscript>

An application of the transportation method of linear programming to a production planning problem of a large footwear manufacturer is described. Factors affecting the choice of approach are discussed along with details of data requirements and their implications. Results, including a comparison of the analytic solution with that obtained by management judgement, and related sensitivity analyses are presented. The model used in one sub-problem is detailed in the appendix and incorporates spare capacity constraints and conditions on product mix but preserves the standard transportation format. An additional ratio constraint is satisfied algebraically after obtaining an original optimal solution.     

Interior-point methods for nonlinear complementarity problems

We present a potential reduction interior-point algorithm for monotone nonlinear complementarity problems. At each iteration, one has to compute an approximate solution of a nonlinear system such that a certain accuracy requirement is satisfied. For problems satisfying a scaled Lipschitz condition, this requirement is satisfied by the approximate solution obtained by applying one Newton step to that nonlinear system. We discuss the global and local convergence rates of the algorithm, convergence toward a maximal complementarity solution, a criterion for switching from the interior-point algorithm to a pure Newton method, and the complexity of the resulting hybrid algorithm.This research was supported in part by NSF Grant DDM-89-22636.The authors would like to thank Rongqin Sheng and three anonymous referees for their comments leading to a better presentation of the results.     

基于设备状态监控的单级备件库存系统补货策略研究

本文研究一个周期性订货的多设备同备件库存系统,将备件库存策略与设备状态监控相结合,讨论了存在设备状态监控情形下的备件库存策略。针对设备状态自然腐蚀过程和人 为修复过程的复合过程,运用一个新的马尔科夫概率转移矩阵对设备需求概率进行刻画,并在此基础上给出静态订货模型和状态监控下的动态订货模型的最优订货策略。通过对比以上两种订货策略优缺点,本文提出一种新的启发式订货策略: 基于关键状态的订货策略模型。该策略可以有效降低对全部设备实行动态监控的信息成本,且成本节省优于静态订货策略,对于企业的现实问题有着较好的指导意义。     

Reliability Analysis of a One-Unit System with Unrepairable Spare Units and its Optimization Applications

It is assumed that a unit is either in operation or is in repair. When the main unit is under repair, spare units which cannot be repaired are used. In this system the following quantities are of interest: (i) The time distribution and the mean time to first-system failure, given that the n spare units are provided at time 0. (ii) The probability that the number of the failed spare units are equal to exactly n during the interval (0, t], and its expected number during the interval (0, t]. These quantities are derived by solving the renewal-type equations.Two optimization problems are discussed using the results obtained, viz.: (i) The expected cost of two systems, one with both a main unit and spare units and the other with only spare units is considered. (ii) A preventive maintenance policy of the main unit is considered in order to minimize the expected cost rate. Some policies of the two problems are discussed under suitable conditions. Numerical examples are also presented.     

Optimal lateral transshipment policies for a two location inventory problem with multiple demand classes

We consider an inventory model for spare parts with two stockpoints, providing repairable parts for a critical component of advanced technical systems. As downtime costs for these systems are expensive, ready–for–use spare parts are kept in stock to be able to quickly respond to a breakdown of a system. We allow for lateral transshipments of parts between the stockpoints upon a demand arrival. Each stockpoint faces demands from multiple demand classes. We are interested in the optimal lateral transshipment policy. There are three ways in which a demand can by satisfied: from own stock, via a lateral transshipment, or via an emergency procedure. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we characterize and prove the structure of the optimal policy, that is, the policy for satisfying the demands which minimizes the average operating costs of the system. This optimal policy is a threshold type policy, with state-dependent thresholds at each stockpoint for every demand class. We show a partial ordering in these thresholds in the demand classes. In addition, we derive conditions under which the so-called hold back and complete pooling policies are optimal, two policies that are often assumed in the literature. Furthermore, we study several model extensions which fit in the same modeling framework.     

线性离散不确定时滞系统滞后相关H∞鲁棒控制

基于Lyapunov泛函方法,对存在状态时滞的线性离散不确定系统,给出了滞后相关型无记忆H∞状态反控制器设计方案,通过求解相应的线性矩阵不等式即可求得满足设计要求的控制器．     

Consolidating Maintenance Spares

The inventory of spare parts that a firm holds depends on the number of working parts and age of the equipment to be serviced, the expected failure rate associated with each working part, and the acceptable level of service. We model the problem of consolidation of spare parts to reduce overall inventory as an integer program with a nonlinear objective function. A linear reformulation of this model is obtained that helps solve some practical instances. A more compact implicit formulation is developed and solved using a specialized branch-and-price technique. We also demonstrate how this specialized branch-and-price technique is modified to devise a very effective heuristic procedure with a prespecifiable guarantee of quality of solution produced. This provides a practical and efficient methodology for maintenance spare consolidation.     

An optimal algorithm for repairable-item inventory system with depot spares

We consider the problem of determining the spare inventory level for a multiechelon repairable-item inventory system. Our model extends the previous results to the system, which has an inventory at the central depot, as well as at the bases. We have developed an algorithm to find the optimal spare inventory levels, which minimise the total expected cost and simultaneously satisfy a specified minimum service rate. The algorithm is illustrated using examples of various sizes.