基于具有LR型模 糊输出回归模型的上证指数预测

以对称二次型模糊回归模型为基础,引入一般二次模糊回归模型,利用模糊最小二乘法估计未知参数．构建评价标准考察两模型的拟合效果,在样本期内和样本期外分别评价模型的实际拟合与预测能力．     

系数为梯形模糊数的模糊回归分析的最小二乘法

由于模糊数往往可以用梯形模糊数来逼近,因此对梯形模糊数的模糊回归模型的研究就有一定的实用价值.采用最小二乘的方法,针对输入为精确数、输出和回归系数都是梯形模糊数的模糊线性回归模型,讨论了该模型回归系数的最小二乘估计及误差项的估计,实例说明了提出的参数估计的拟合度比较好.     

基于结构元最小二乘序的模糊线性回归

在具有模糊观测数据的线性回归问题中,通过定义模糊序指标实现模糊数的排序,借助经典最小二乘法原理,给出了使平方误差和在此排序方法下达到最小的模糊回归系数最小二乘序估计方法。三个例子的结果表明,文中的最小二乘方法能很好的对输入和输出为模糊数,回归系数为精确值的回归模型进行估计,更重要的是,此方法不仅对三角模糊数适用,对其他类型的模糊观测数据也适用。     

空气质量的模糊综合评价与曲线拟合预测模型

公众的健康在很大程度上受空气质量制约,对空气质量进行预测与评价具有十分重要的意义.首先针对空气质量评价问题,将模糊综合评价方法和层析分析方法相结合,建立了空气质量的模糊综合评价模型.其次针对空气质量预测问题,根据最小二乘理论,建立了不同污染物浓度值的滑动窗口预测模型.最后选择安阳市空气污染物浓度年度均值进行了模型验证.实验结果表明,评价与预测模型具有精确度较高,误差率小的优点,具有较高的实用性.     

一类不分明时间序列的回归预测

研究了一类不分明时间序列的线性回归预测问题,通过模糊数空间中的距离,建立了模糊环境中最小二乘回归模型,证明了回归模型解的存在性和唯一性,并给出了确定模型的模糊参数及检验模型拟合度的计算公式。     

Hénon混沌系统的模糊广义预测控制与同步

针对Hénon混沌系统,本文给出了一种基于T-S模糊模型的混沌系统广义预测控制算法。该方法将模糊辨识和广义预测控制结合起来应用到Hénon混沌系统中。首先,应用T-S模糊模型对Hénon混沌系统进行辨识,模糊聚类法辨识模型的前件参数,递推最小二乘法辨识结论参数。基于辨识模型,采用广义预测控制算法对其进行控制,实现了系统的跟踪与同步。仿真结果表明,与其它算法相比,该算法能够保证系统输出快速、有效地跟踪设定值。     

基于逆模糊数的模糊时间序列模型的农机总动力预测方法

提出一种改进的基于逆模糊数的新模糊时间序列预测模型.应用模型研究辽宁省农机总动力预测问题,比一元线性回归模型,二次移动平均模型,指数曲线模型,灰色理论GM(1,1)模型等4种模型和它们的组合模型的平均预测误差率AFER都有较大改善,是值得推荐的一种时间序列预测方法.     

模糊线性回归模型的约束最小二乘估计

自Tanaka等1982年提出模糊回归概念以来,该问题已得到广泛的研究。作为主要估计方法之一的模糊最小二乘估计以其与统计最小二乘估计的密切联系更受到人们的重视。本文依据适当定义的两个模糊数之间的距离,提出了模糊线性回归模型的一个约束最小二乘估计方法,该方法不仅能使估计的模糊参数的宽度具有非负性而且估计的模糊参数的中心线与传统的最小二乘估计相一致。最后,通过数值例子说明了所提方法的具体应用。     

基于EEMD与模糊回归的投资组合选择模型及实证

随着模糊理论的不断发展与其在证券市场的广泛应用,越来越多的学者关注到参数模糊化对投资组合优化具有重要作用。本文利用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和模糊线性回归相结合的预测方法,构建了基于对称三角模糊数的投资组合模型。并将提出的模型与集合经验模态分解和普通最小二乘结合的方法、单一模糊线性回归方法进行了对比分析,结果表明基于集合经验模态分解和模糊线性回归建立的投资组合模型最优,这对构建最优投资组合具有参考意义。     

结构元方法的模糊线性回归模型

针对截集思想所转化的线性规划模型结构复杂、可操作差的问题.利用结构元方法重新考察含有模糊系数的模糊线性回归问题.定义了一类结构元加权内积,诱导出了模糊数的距离;利用最小二乘原理,给出一类含有模糊系数的多元模糊回归模型的解析表达式.通过实例说明方法的有效性.     

基于多目标规划法的模糊线性回归分析

讨论输入、输出均为模糊数,回归系数为实数时的模糊线性回归分析。由于模糊最小二乘线性回归容易受异常值的影响,而最小一乘法能有效地降低回归模型的误差。为此,基于最小一乘法,建立多目标规划模型并将其转化为非线性规划问题进行求解,从而实现模糊线性回归模型的参数估计。最后,结合一个数值实例,验证和比较该方法的合理性和优越性。     

带模糊回归参数的线性回归模型

本文讨论了数值输入模糊数输出的观测数据的线性最小二乘拟合问题，建立了数值空间到模糊数空间的带模糊回归参数的线性回归模型，证明了模型解的存在性和唯一性，并得到了解的表达式。本模型应用简便，具有实用价值。     

修正的模糊最小一乘线性回归

对文献[1]提出的基于对称三角模糊数的模糊最小一乘线性回归进行修正和扩展,给出模糊最小一乘线性回归模型的三种不同形式,并将其转化为线性规划或非线性规划问题进行求解。最后,给出几个数值实例,通过计算和比较,结果表明三种模糊最小一乘线性回归模型都具有非常好的拟合性。     

Prediction of retinopathy in diabetic patients using type-2 fuzzy regression model

Due to the small sample size of data available in medical research and the levels of uncertainty and ambiguity associated with medical data, some researchers have employed fuzzy regression models to find the relationship between outcomes and explanatory variables in medical decision-making. The advantages of regression models are their ability to handle small sample sizes while fuzzy logic can model vagueness, thus making fuzzy regression a popular model among researchers. In addition, the high levels of uncertainty in medical data encourage the use of type-2 fuzzy which is capable of handling such uncertainty. The current paper proposes an interval type-2 fuzzy regression model for predicting retinopathy in diabetic patients. The results of the present work shall prevent unnecessary testing of diabetic patient. This study also aims to assist patients and the healthcare community to reduce the cost of diabetes control and treatment by optimizing the number of check-ups.     

Evaluation of fuzzy linear regression models by comparing membership functions

Fuzzy linear regression models can provide an estimated fuzzy number that has a fuzzy membership function. If a point that has the highest membership value from the estimated fuzzy number is not within the support of the observed fuzzy membership function, a decision-maker can have high risk from the estimate. In this study a modification of fuzzy linear regression analysis based on a criterion of minimizing the difference of the fuzzy membership values between the observed and estimated fuzzy numbers is proposed. Two numerical examples are used to evaluate the fuzzy regression models.     

Underwriting and uncertainty

An insurance contract is based on its (risk) premium estimated as exactly as possible, and also on a more intuitive kind of experience which is expressed by the company's underwriting practice. In this article an attempt is made to analyse the internal logic of this intuitive part of underwriting by means of fuzzy set theory.     

系数为LR-型模糊数的模糊线性最小二乘回归

针对输入、输出以及系数为LR-型模糊数的情况,建立模糊线性回归模型,提出该模型的最小二乘估计以及模型性能评价方法。当输入、输出以及系数都退化为精确值时,该估计退化为经典的最小二乘估计。该方法不仅适用于三角模糊数,也适用于其它LR-型模糊数(如指数型模糊数)。数值模拟表明,该方法的拟合效果较好。     

Similarities in Fuzzy Regression Models

The solutions of a fuzzy regression model are obtained by converting the problem into a linear programming problem. For each level h, h[0, 1), there exists a solution. In this paper, we study the set of all the solutions to the fuzzy regression model that comes from a set of data as a metric space with an appropriate metric on it. We define a similarity ratio that allows us to compare the spaces of solutions of a fuzzy regression model that come from different sets of data. We also give an application using data sets concerning the GNP–money relationship.     

Linear fuzzy regression

This paper presents an approach which is useful for regression analysis in the case of heterogeneity of a set of observations, for which regression is evaluated. The proposed procedure consists of two stages. First, for a set of observations, fuzzy classification is determined. Due to this, homogenous classes of observations which are of hyperellipsoidal shape, are obtained. Then for each fuzzy class, the so called linear fuzzy regression is evaluated.

In the paper the method of calculating linear fuzzy regression coefficients is given. It is a generalized version of the least squares method. The formula for the values of coefficients is given. Some properties of linear fuzzy regression are analyzed. It is proved that in one- and two-dimensional cases, the formulae are analogous to those for usual regression. A measure of goodness-of-fit and the method of determination of the number of fuzzy classes are also given.

Presented examples indicate the superiority of fuzzy regression in comparison to usual regression in the case of heterogenous observations.