淡水湖泊藻类模型分析

利用非经典生物操纵法建立了鱼直接捕食藻类的模型.气候变化导致的温室效应越来越突出,鱼及藻类的生长对磷的消耗率等因素都与湖水温度有关,模型中考虑了温度的影响.分析了边界平衡点、正平衡点的存在性以及稳定性.得到了藻类和鱼灭绝的阈值,讨论了生态学意义.     

MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EFFECT ON THE NORWEGIAN SALMON FARMING INDUSTRY

Abstract Global warming is expected to affect the ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic, and substantial changes will also affect the aquaculture industry. Farming of salmon and trout is the biggest aquaculture industry in Norway, with an export value of about 3 billion US dollars in 2007. The objective of the paper is to analyze the potential economic effect a general increase in sea temperature can have on the Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry. The assessment of the economic impact of global warming is made possible by estimating a growth function, which explicitly includes sea water temperature. The analysis compares the economic effect of a climate change on fish farming plants in the south and the north of Norway. The scenarios are based on a model with monthly seasonal variation in temperature.     

非均匀温度场中组合热超弹性球体的动态孔穴生成

在有限变形动力学的框架下,研究了在非均匀温度场中组合热超弹性球体,在表面均布拉伸死载荷作用下的动态孔穴的生成和增长问题．首先建立了相应的非线性数学模型,利用换元积分方法求得了孔穴半径与外加载荷之间的一个精确的微分关系,并进行了数值计算,得到了不同温度下球体中孔穴生成时的临界载荷和分叉曲线．考察了参数对孔穴生成与增长的影响,并与相应的静态结果进行了比较．结果表明孔穴是以一个有限的半径突然出现的,且随时间的演变孔穴半径呈现周期性的非线性振动;当温度升高,临界值降低,同时在相同的条件下动态临界载荷低于静态临界载荷．     

半刚性基层沥青路面温度场的解析理论*

本文从气象学和传热学的基本原理出发,采用解析理论建立了完全依赖气象站标准气象资料的二维非线性路面温度场的计算理论,并对不同气候条件下路面温度、土基温度及沿厚度变化的温度分布给出了相应的计算方法.     

Thermal behaviour prediction utilizing artificial neural networks for an open office

This study investigates a neural network-based non-linear autoregressive model with external inputs (NNARX), a non-linear autoregressive moving average model with external inputs (NNARMAX), and a non-linear output error model (NNOE) to predict the thermal behaviour of an open-plan office in a modern commercial building. External and internal climate data recorded over one summer, autumn and winter season were used to build and validate the models. The paper illustrates the potential of using these models to predict room temperature and relative humidity for different time scales ahead (30 min or 2 h ahead). The prediction performance is evaluated using the criteria of goodness of fit, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and mean squared error between predicted model output and real measurements. To obtain an optimal network structure (avoiding overfitting) after training, a pruning algorithm called optimal brain surgeon (OBS) was used to remove unnecessary input signals, weights and hidden neurons. The results demonstrate that all models provide reasonably good predictions but the NNARX and NNARMAX models outperform the NNOE model. These models can all potentially be used for improving the performance of thermal environment control systems.     

能耗强度与能源结构优化对内生经济增长影响研究

本文在垂直创新模型框架下,将能耗强度和碳减排比例引入生产函数,将人们对气候变化的警惕意识引入效用函数,建立了一个动态的内生低碳经济增长模型。通过求解所建动态优化模型,找到了经济长期均衡增长的最优路径,讨论了能源强度和能源消费结构变化与经济均衡增长的相互关系,分析了各参数对经济最优增长路径的影响,比较了化石能源内部消费结构不变和逐年清洁两种情景下的经济最优增长路径的异同。长期来看,能源强度、二氧化碳减排速率与经济增长率有相互的负向线性关系,缩小反映化石能源内部消费结构的综合碳排放系数对经济增长有促进作用。非化石能源比例越高,低碳技术应用越广泛,研发成果对技术积累的贡献率越大,消费者对当前消费的偏好程度越小,人们对气候变化的警惕意识越强,则越有利于经济的低碳发展。     

基于先验信息的社会碳成本贝叶斯不确定性分析

针对气候变化及经济影响存在的巨大不确定性,研究了气候变化不确定性以及先验信息对社会碳成本的影响.在贝叶斯理论框架下,采用指数分布刻画气候变化的分布特征,假设尾部变化率是一个随机变量,给出其伽玛先验分布,推导了气候变化分布的贝叶斯先验预测分布.并分别基于指数分布以及帕累托先验预测分布计算了社会碳排放成本.模拟分析发现,在未融合先验信息的情况下,由于尾部概率很小,不管是否修正消费与气候变化之间的关系,截尾社会碳成本和未截尾社会碳成本几乎重合.然而,在利用贝叶斯方法融合先验信息的情况下,社会碳成本容易受到先验信息的影响.但是,通过修正消费与气候变化之间的关系后,发现社会碳成本受先验信息的影响比较少.     

一种新城市气温模式分类的聚类算法

城市气温是对城市气候特性评价的一个重要指标.提出核概率聚类算法并将其应用于城市气温的模式分类中,以此寻找城市发展上的共同点.该算法在概率聚类算法上引入了核学习方法的思想,能够很好地处理噪音和孤立点,实现更为准确的聚类.实验结果表明,与相关聚类算法相比,核概率聚类算法聚类效果好,且算法能够很快地收敛.     

Numerical Analysis of Heat Transfer for Cooling of Photovoltaic Cells

Photovoltaic cells are devices which convert solar radiation directly into electricity. However, solar radiation increases the photovoltaic cells temperature [1] [2]. The temperature has an influence on the degradation of the cell efficiency and the lifetime of a PV cell. This work reports on a cooling water technique for cells, whereby the cooling system was placed at the front surface of the cells to dissipate away excess heat and to block unwanted radiation. Using water as a cooling medium for the cells, the overheating of closed panel is greatly reduced without prejudicing luminosity and water acts as a filter to remove a portion of solar spectrum in the infrared band but allows transmission of the visible spectrum most useful for the PV operation. The aims of this study are to develop a 3D thermal model to simulate the cooling and heat transfer in Photovoltaic panel and recommend a cooling technique for the PV panel. In order to have a good estimation for the temperature distribution, the three-dimensional flow and heat transfer across the cooling block is investigated numerically by solving the continuity, momentum and energy equations using FLUENT. The second objective of this work is to study the influence of the geometrical dimensions of the panel, water mass flow rate and water inlet temperature on the flow distribution and the solar panel temperature. The results obtained by the model are compared with experimental results from testing the prototype of the cooling device. (© 2014 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Analysis of a bipolar energy-transport model for a metal-oxide-semiconductor diode

A simplified bipolar energy-transport model for a metal-oxide-semiconductor diode (MOS) with nonconstant lattice temperature is considered. The electron and hole current densities vanish in the diode but the particle temperature may be large. The existence of weak solutions to the system of quasilinear elliptic equations with nonlinear boundary conditions is proved using a Stampacchia trunction technique and maximum principle arguments. Further, an asymptotic analysis for the one-dimensional MOS diode is presented, which shows that only the boundary temperature influences the capacitance-voltage characteristics of the device. The analytical results are underlined by numerical experiments.     

基于地理加权回归模型的塔里木河流域农业气候资源研究

以塔里木河流域农业气候资源为研究对象,通过收集该流域38个县市地区1995-2014年的气象、地理及经济方面的指标数据,运用R软件对其进行因子分析,得出年平均气温对该流域种植业具有明显的影响.然后,建立了地理加权回归模型,对收集的指标数据进行分析,研究该流域农业气候资源空间聚集与差异.结果表明:农业气候资源对塔河流域农业生产存在明显的空间影响.最后,为流域农作物的合理种植给出建议.     

氟测定中的一个数学模型及其应用

本文应用变量代换、回归分析法并借助计算机技术 ,对在不同温度下测得的一系列标准溶液结果进行回归拟合 ,建立了关于电动势 E、温度 T和浓度 CF 的一个数学模型。该模型较好的解决了温度对氟测定的影响 ,且适用范围较广。     

大气变暖对气候状况影响的分析及预测

以地球大气变暖海平面升高为背景,对近几十年CO2排放量上升引起气温升高,气温升高引起海平面上升分别建立了数学模型,同时针对美国佛罗里达州的气候状况进行分析,预测几十年后的海平面上升对大陆面积的影响.     

Approximate inertial manifolds for the 2d model of atmosphere

In order to understand the mechanism of long term weather prediction and climate, we construct explicitly in this paper an infinite number of approximate inertial manifolds M _j,m for the 2D model of large scale atmosphere to approximate the global attractor of the model. Associated with each manifold, there exists a thin neighborhood of it, into which the orbits of the model enter with a finite time. These neighborhoods contain and localize the global attractor. The thickness of these neighborhoods decreases with increasing m for a fixed j. Moreover we also obtain the time analyticity of the solutions of the model and the behavior of the small structures.     

EMD-SVM在南京市月平均气温预测中的应用

南京市月平均气温具有非平稳性、噪声大、序列宽频等特征.为了提高温预测精度,本文提出一种经验模态分解(EMD)和支持向量机(SVM)回归相组合的预测模型(EMD-SVM).首先应用EMD分解算法把南京市月平均气温分解成不同尺度的基本模态分量(IMF),再运用支持向量机回归模型对每个IMF预测,最后将预测结果重构得到南京市月平均气温预测值.结果表明:EMD-SVM模型预测与单一支持向量机回归模型预测相比,平均预测精度提高0.59度,是一种有效的预测气温的模型.     

南极中山站周边水环境冰情监测系统的设计与研究

系统实现对南极中山站周边冰、水环境的长期连续实时监测,可以为分析南极环境变化是否对全球气候异常变化造成影响提供最基本的科学数据.利用空气,冰与水介质的电导率不同的原理用微控制器控制冰情检测传感器来实现冰水环境的自动化监测,设计了可以实现冰厚度、水深度、温度的定点连续冰情监测系统,监测数据可以存储在系统内嵌的SD存储卡中,方便观测人员进行调用.通过卫星实现数据无线传输.     

A Spatial Markov Model for Climate Extremes

Spatial climate data are often presented as summaries of areal regions such as grid cells, either because they are the output of numerical climate models or to facilitate comparison with numerical climate model output. Extreme value analysis can benefit greatly from spatial methods that borrow information across regions. For Gaussian outcomes, a host of methods that respect the areal nature of the data are available, including conditional and simultaneous autoregressive models. However, to our knowledge, there is no such method in the spatial extreme value analysis literature. In this article, we propose a new method for areal extremes that accounts for spatial dependence using latent clustering of neighboring regions. We show that the proposed model has desirable asymptotic dependence properties and leads to relatively simple computation. Applying the proposed method to North American climate data reveals several local and continental-scale changes in the distribution of precipitation and temperature extremes over time. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

1961～2005年漠河年均温和年均高低温的变化分析

对近四十五年来中国漠河的气温变化作了一个初步分析.根据中国漠河1961～2005年逐日平均、最高、最低气温资料,求得了相应的年均温、年均高温和年均低温,分别对它们进行了线性拟合,结果表明它们在这45年都有所升高,并且由t检验得出线性趋势都是显著的.之后用线性回归模型拟合了年均温与年均高温和年均低温的关系,得出了拟合方程,并由F检验说明了线性回归关系的显著性.最后又采用变系数回归模型的局部线性拟合方法拟合了年均温与年均高温和年均低温的变化关系,从而揭示了年均高温和年均低温对年均温的影响随时间变化的规律,对研究年均温升高的原因具有一定的参考意义.     

Nonlocal elasticity effect on column buckling of multiwalled carbon nanotubes under temperature field

Based on nonlocal theory of thermal elasticity mechanics, an elastic multiple column model is developed for column buckling of MWNTs with large aspect ratios under axial compression coupling with temperature change. The present model treats each of the nested tubes as an individual column interacting with adjacent nanotubes through the intertube van der Waals forces. The thermal effect is incorporated in the formulation. In particular, an explicit expression is derived for the critical axial strain of a double-walled carbon nanotube which clearly demonstrates that small scale effects contribute significantly to the thermo-mechanical behavior of multiwalled carbon nanotubes and cannot be ignored.     

The role of the water temperature in the optimal management of marine aquaculture

This paper analyses the influence of the water temperature over the optimal management of aquaculture farms. A fish growth model is presented and included in a general profit optimisation framework. Results reveal a positive influence of the average water temperature over the optimal harvesting time. The optimal ration size exhibits an uneven path with an upward phase in the warmer season followed by downward phase in winter time. An application for the seabream culture in the Mediterranean countries shows harvesting time and ration size very dependent on the water temperature and the stocking date. The risk involved with uncertainty of the environmental conditions is also estimated, which could explain the difference between the predicted optimal harvesting sizes and the real practice in commercial culture.