基于Copula的金融市场相关分析

本文采用连接函数(copula)方法研究上证和深证市场的相关性。对上证指数和深证成指收益率的边缘分布分别用正则逆Gamma分布(Normal inverse gamma mixture)、偏T分布(Skew Student-t,SST)进行拟合,然后在此基础上采用copula函数方法建立两者的联合分布。其中的copula函数分别用Gumbel-Hougaard copula、Frank copula和Clayton copula,相依参数应用推断函数法(method of inference functions,IFM方法)估计。结果表明沪深两证券市场具有相关性。     

逐次Ⅰ型混合截尾下基于FGM copula的应力强度模型可靠性估计

在逐次Ⅰ型混合截尾样本下,研究具有相关性应力-强度模型的可靠性.假设应力和强度分布为参数不同的指数分布,选用FGM copula作为连接函数构造联合分布,得到参数和可靠度的极大似然估计(MLEs)、贝叶斯估计和对应渐近置信区间、HPD置信区间.通过Monte Carlo模拟方法,获得不同样本量不同截尾方案下估计值的数值...     

线性模型下F-检验最优的误差协方差结构

文献中回归参数线性假设的F-检验统计量主要包括基于广义最小二乘估计F- 统计量F(θ),基于最小二乘估计的F-统计量FLSE以及Wu C．F．J．等于1988年提出的调整的F-统计量FA(θ)．其中后两者因形式简单而常常被广泛采用．本文主要研究了FA(θ)和FLSE的最优性,并分别获得了FA(θ)=F(θ)和ELSE=F(θ)的充要条件．最后,我们将所得的结果应用到医药领域的两类重要模型．     

C~(A,B)copula在CreditMetrics中的应用

利用copula方法初步探讨了CreditMetrics中相关性假定对计算Value-atrisk结果的影响.将相关文献提出的C~(A,B) copula应用到CreditMetrics中来替代传统的正态copula函数.在理论上探讨了C~(A,B) copula的系数的确定方法,并针对二元情形进行了数值分析.     

离散参数空间平方损失下的可容许估计

50年代以来,许多统计工作者对单参数指数分布族中参数的可容许性(平方损失下)作了较多讨论,给出了一些线性和非线性(主要的是有理函数)的可容许估计.这些内容可参看文献[1—8].文献[9—11]分别在前面的基础上给出了在平方损失下关于 L 测度几乎可容许估计的一般性定理.这些文献所讨论的参数空间是实数空间上有限或无限的连续区间.本文将讨论离散参数空间(?)={θ_k:θ_k∈R~1,k=1,2,…}.第二节对离散参数空间在平方损失函数 L(g(θ),d)=λ(θ)(d-g(θ))~2下,给出参数函数 g(θ)的估计是可容许的充分条件,第三节以二项分布与爱尔兰分布为例说明了该定理的应用.     

关于t（n）、F（m，n）分布数字特征的计算

在统计推断中，需用统计量来估计未知参数θ或g(θ)的数值，如要进一步分析一个估计量的好坏，就需知道估计量的分布，或至少要知道统计量的某些数字特征．众所周知，t统计量、F统计量在参数的点估计、区间估计、假设检验中起着重要的作用．文献[1]中介绍了几种重要分布：     

自动选取多非线性参数初始值的循环搜索法

1几何中心化加权最小二乘法给定观测数据集(x_i,y_i),i=1,2,…,n．(1．1)欲拟合加权非线性模型y_i=f(x_i,θ) ε_i,(1．2)其中模型函数f的参数为θ=(θ_1,…,θ_p)~T,随机观测误差项满足ε_i～N[0,(?)~2m(z_i,λ)],(1．3) m(z_i,λ)为已知正值函数,z_i可以是x_i,也可以是μ_i=f(x_i,θ)或二者的组合,λ为权参数,而(?)~2为未知的方差参数,λ和θ可统称为模型参数．模型的似然函数为     

关于参数型copula函数的拟合检验

在金融和保险中,copula函数是一种构造多元相关分布函数的有力工具．然而,怎样选择一个适当的copula函数用于拟合数据,并没有找到统一的方法．因此,基于copula函数的经验分布,我们提出了一种用于检验具有某种特定参数结构的copula函数拟合数据优良性的方法,并得到了此检验的渐近性质．由于该检验统计量的极限分布依赖未知参数,我们采用非参数蒙特卡罗方法确定临界值．我们做了一个简单的模拟来验证本文提出的检验方法的功效．     

具有外生变量部分线性自回归模型的样条估计

考虑自回归模型Y_t=θ~TX_t g(Zt) ε_t,t=1,…,n,其中X_t=(Y_(t-1),…,Y_(t-d))~T,Z_t为实值外生随机变量,θ=(θ_1,…,θ_d)~T为待估参数向量,g为未知非参数光滑函数．基于多项式样条方法,在一定的条件下,给出了θ的估计的渐近正态性,得到了g的估计的收敛速度．模拟例子验证了所得的理论结果．     

多层分红策略下以FGM Copula为相依结构的风险模型

该文考虑了多层分红策略下相依的风险模型,用Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern(FGM)copula定义了索赔间隔时间和索赔额之间的相依结构,研究了Gerber-Shiu期望折扣罚金函数,导出了其所满足的积分微分方程和瑕疵更新方程,并给出了它们的解析解.最后,以索赔额分布服从指数分布为例,给出了破产概率所满足的具体解.     

RECENT PROGRESS ON SPHERICAL HARMONIC APPROXIMATION MADE BY BNU RESEARCH GROUP ——In memory of Professor Sun Yongsheng

As early as in 1990, Professor Sun Yongsheng, suggested his students at Beijing Normal University to consider research problems on the unit sphere. Under his guidance and encouragement his students started the research on spherical harmonic analysis and approximation. In this paper, we incompletely introduce the main achievements in this area obtained by our group and relative researchers during recent 5 years （2001-2005）. The main topics are： convergence of Cesaro summability, a.e. and strong summability of Fourier-Laplace series; smoothness and K-functionals; Kolmogorov and linear widths.     

On a class of self-similar processes with stationary increments in higher order Wiener chaoses

We study a class of self-similar processes with stationary increments belonging to higher order Wiener chaoses which are similar to Hermite processes. We obtain an almost sure wavelet-like expansion of these processes. This allows us to compute the pointwise and local Hölder regularity of sample paths and to analyse their behaviour at infinity. We also provide some results on the Hausdorff dimension of the range and graphs of multidimensional anisotropic self-similar processes with stationary increments defined by multiple Wiener–Itô integrals.     

A REPRESENTATION FORMULA RELATED TO SCHR(O)DINGER OPERATORS

Schr(o)dinger operator is a central subject in the mathematical study of quantum mechanics.Consider the Schrodinger operator H = -△ V on R, where △ = d2/dx2 and the potential function V is real valued. In Fourier analysis, it is well-known that a square integrable function admits an expansion with exponentials as eigenfunctions of -△. A natural conjecture is that an L2 function admits a similar expansion in terms of "eigenfunctions" of H, a perturbation of the Laplacian (see [7], Ch. Ⅺ and the notes), under certain condition on V.     

On a class of Riemann surfaces

It is considered the class of Riemann surfaces with dimT1 = 0, where T1 is a subclass of exact harmonic forms which is one of the factors in the orthogonal decomposition of the spaceΩH of harmonic forms of the surface, namely The surfaces in the class OHD and the class of planar surfaces satisfy dimT1 = 0. A.Pfluger posed the question whether there might exist other surfaces outside those two classes. Here it is shown that in the case of finite genus g, we should look for a surface S with dimT1 = 0 among the surfaces of the form Sg\K , where Sg is a closed surface of genus g and K a compact set of positive harmonic measure with perfect components and very irregular boundary.     

CONTENTS OF VOLUME 30

正~~     

Instructions for contributions

正Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese Universities,Series B(Appl.Math.J.Chinese Univ.,Ser.B)is a comprehensive applied mathematics journal jointly sponsored by Zhejiang University,China Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,and Springer-Verlag.It is a quarterly journal with     

Journal of Mathematical Research with Applications Guide for Authors

正Journal overview:Journal of Mathematical Research with Applications(JMRA),formerly Journal of Mathematical Research and Exposition(JMRE)created in 1981,one of the transactions of China Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,is a home for original research papers of the highest quality in all areas of mathematics with applications.The target audience comprises:pure and applied mathematicians,graduate students in broad fields of sciences and technology,scientists and engineers interested in mathematics.     

Staircase transportation problems with superadditive rewards and cumulative capacities

A cumulative-capacitated transportation problem is studied. The supply nodes and demand nodes are each chains. Shipments from a supply node to a demand node are possible only if the pair lies in a sublattice, or equivalently, in a staircase disjoint union of rectangles, of the product of the two chains. There are (lattice) superadditive upper bounds on the cumulative flows in all leading subrectangles of each rectangle. It is shown that there is a greatest cumulative flow formed by the natural generalization of the South-West Corner Rule that respects cumulative-flow capacities; it has maximum reward when the rewards are (lattice) superadditive; it is integer if the supplies, demands and capacities are integer; and it can be calculated myopically in linear time. The result is specialized to earlier work of Hoeffding (1940), Fréchet (1951), Lorentz (1953), Hoffman (1963) and Barnes and Hoffman (1985). Applications are given to extreme constrained bivariate distributions, optimal distribution with limited one-way product substitution and, generalizing results of Derman and Klein (1958), optimal sales with age-dependent rewards and capacities.To our friend, Philip Wolfe, with admiration and affection, on the occasion of his 65th birthday.Research was supported respectively by the IBM T.J. Watson and IBM Almaden Research Centers and is a minor revision of the IBM Research Report [6].     

Boundedness for commutators of multipliers on Hardy type spaces

In this paper, we study the commutators generalized by multipliers and a BMO function. Under some assumptions, we establish its boundedness properties from certain atomic Hardy space Hb^p（R^n） into the Lebesgue space L^p with p 〈 1.