Global stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type II functional response

In this paper, a delayed eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type II functional response is investigated. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of the feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the disease‐free equilibrium, the susceptible predator‐free equilibrium and the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium are established, respectively. By means of Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium, the disease‐free equilibrium, the susceptible predator‐free equilibrium and the predator‐extinction equilibrium of the system, respectively. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a stage‐structured SI epidemic model with time delay and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease‐free equilibrium, and the existence of Hopf bifurcations are established. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global dynamics of a delayed eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type‐III functional response

In this paper, an eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type‐III functional response and a time delay representing the gestation period of the predators is investigated. In the model, it is assumed that the predator population suffers a transmissible disease. The disease basic reproduction number is obtained. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium are established, respectively. By using the persistence theory on infinite dimensional systems, it is proved that if the disease basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the system is permanent. By means of Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium, the disease‐free equilibrium and the predator‐extinction equilibrium of the system, respectively. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Qualitative analysis of the SICR epidemic model with impulsive vaccinations

Control of epidemic infections is a very urgent issue today. To develop an appropriate strategy for vaccinations and effectively prevent the disease from arising and spreading, we proposed a modified Susceptible‐Infected‐Removed model with impulsive vaccinations. For the model without vaccinations, we proved global stability of one of the steady states depending on the basic reproduction number R₀. As typically in the epidemic models, the threshold value of R₀ is 1. If R₀ is greater than 1, then the positive steady state called endemic equilibrium exists and is globally stable, whereas for smaller values of R₀, it does not exist, and the semi‐trivial steady state called disease‐free equilibrium is globally stable. Using impulsive differential equation comparison theorem, we derived sufficient conditions under which the infectious disease described by the considered model disappears ultimately. The analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations for Hepatitis B virus infection that confirm the theoretical possibility of the infection elimination because of the proper vaccinations policy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global attractivity of a discrete SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate

In this paper, a discrete Susceptible‐Infected‐Recovered‐Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model with standard incidence rate is studied. By means of the iteration technique and the comparison principle of difference equations, the sufficient conditions are obtained for the global attractivity of the endemic equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Two examples are given to illustrate the main theoretical results. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium of a diffusive SIS epidemic system with saturated incidence rate and spontaneous infection

A susceptible‐infected‐susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction‐diffusion model with saturated incidence rate and spontaneous infection is considered. We establish the existence of endemic equilibrium by using a fixed‐point theorem. The global asymptotic stability of the constant endemic equilibrium is discussed in the case of homogeneous environment. We mainly investigate the effects of diffusion and saturation on asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium. When the saturated incidence rate tends to infinity, the susceptible and infective distributes in the habitat in a nonhomogeneous way; this result is in strong contrast with the case of no spontaneous infection, where the endemic equilibrium tends to the disease free equilibrium. Our analysis shows that the spontaneous infection can enhance the persistence of an infectious disease and may provide some useful implications on disease control.     

具有预防接种免疫力的双线性传染率SIR流行病模型全局稳定性

研究一类具有预防接种免疫力的双线性传染率 SIR流行病模型全局稳定性 ,找到了决定疾病灭绝和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数 R0 .当 R0 ≤ 1时 ,仅存在无病平衡态 E0 ;当 R0 >1时 ,存在唯一的地方病平衡态 E* 和无病平衡态 E0 .利用 Hurwitz判据及 Liapunov-Lasalle不变集原理可以得知 :当 R0 <1时 ,无病平衡态 E0 全局渐近稳定 ;当 R0 >1时 ,地方病平衡态 E*全局渐近稳定 ,无病平衡态 E0 不稳定 ;当 R0 =1时 ,计算机数值模拟结果显示 ,无病平衡态 E0 有可能是稳定的     

Global dynamics of multi‐group dengue disease model with latency distributions

In this paper, by incorporating latencies for both human beings and female mosquitoes to the mosquito‐borne diseases model, we investigate a class of multi‐group dengue disease model and study the impacts of heterogeneity and latencies on the spread of infectious disease. Dynamical properties of the multi‐group model with distributed delays are established. The results showthat the global asymptotic stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium depends only on the basic reproduction number. Our proofs for global stability of equilibria use the classical method of Lyapunov functions and the graph‐theoretic approach for large‐scale delay systems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global behaviour of an SIR epidemic model with time delay

We study the stability of a delay susceptible–infective–recovered epidemic model with time delay. The model is formulated under the assumption that all individuals are susceptible, and we analyse the global stability via two methods—by Lyapunov functionals, and—in terms of the variance of the variables. The main theorem shows that the endemic equilibrium is stable. If the basic reproduction number ?₀ is less than unity, by LaSalle invariance principle, the disease‐free equilibrium E_s is globally stable and the disease always dies out. By applying the integral averaging theory, we also investigate the stability in variance of the model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

媒体报道对一类具有潜伏期的传染病控制的影响

针对媒体报道产生的信息对一类具有潜伏期的传染病控制的影响问题,建立了一类带时滞的传染病模型.计算得到模型的基本再生数R_0并证明了当R0<1时,无病平衡点局部渐近稳定.通过分析模型正平衡点处对应的特征方程,得到了模型在正平衡点处稳定的条件,给出了正平衡点处会出现Hopf分支的临界条件并得到相关结论.     

Stability and bifurcation in epidemic models describing the transmission of toxoplasmosis in human and cat populations

A five‐dimensional ordinary differential equation model describing the transmission of Toxoplamosis gondii disease between human and cat populations is studied in this paper. Self‐diffusion modeling the spatial dynamics of the T. gondii disease is incorporated in the ordinary differential equation model. The normalized version of both models where the unknown functions are the proportions of the susceptible, infected, and controlled individuals in the total population are analyzed. The main results presented herein are that the ODE model undergoes a trans‐critical bifurcation, the system has no periodic orbits inside the positive octant, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when we restrict the model to inside of the first octant. Furthermore, a local linear stability analysis for the spatially homogeneous equilibrium points of the reaction diffusion model is carried out, and the global stability of both the disease‐free and endemic equilibria are established for the reaction–diffusion system when restricted to inside of the first octant. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical results and to predict some scenarios about the spread of the disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类具有非线性传染率的阶段结构传染病模型

讨论了一类带有非线性传染率的阶段结构传染病模型,得到了各类平衡点存在的阈值条件.借助Hurwitz判据、Lasalle不变集原理和Bendixson法则,找到了疾病消除平衡点,及在无因病死亡时,地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充要条件.     

Mathematical analysis of an eco-epidemiological predator–prey model with stage-structure and latency

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological predator–prey model with stage structure for the prey and a time delay describing the latent period of the disease is investigated. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of the trivial equilibrium, the predator-extinction equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is addressed. The existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium is established. By using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the trivial equilibrium, the predator-extinction equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of the model.     

Global convergence analysis of a class of epidemic models

This paper addresses the global convergence of the epidemic models whose infected subsystems are monotone in the sense of Hirsch (1984). By invoking results from monotone system theory and nonlinear control theory, a simple method is proposed for determining the global asymptotic stability of a disease free equilibrium (DFE) and the global convergence to an endemic equilibrium (EE). Typical epidemic models are studied to illustrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.     

Within‐host and synaptic transmissions: contributions to the spread of HIV infection

We study the contributions of within‐host (virus‐to‐cell) and synaptic (cell‐to‐cell) transmissions in a mathematical model for human immunodeficiency virus epidemics. The model also includes drug resistance. We prove the local and global stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the local stability of the endemic equilibrium. We analyse the effect of the cell‐to‐cell transmission rate on the value of the reproduction number, R₀. Moreover, we show evidence of a qualitative change in the models' dynamics, subjected to the value of the drug efficacy. In the end, important inferences are drawn. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

A schistosomiasis compartment model with incubation and its optimal control

A new mathematical model included an exposed compartment is established in consideration of incubation period of schistosoma in human body. The basic reproduction number is calculated to illustrate the threshold of disease outbreak. The existence of the disease free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are proved. Studies about stability behaviors of the model are exploited. Moreover, control measure assessments are investigated in order to seek out effective control interventions for anti‐schistosomiasis. Then, the corresponding optimal control problem according to the model is presented and solved. Theoretical analyses and numerical simulations induce several prevention and control strategies for anti‐schistosomiasis. At last, a discussion is provided about our results and further work. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Permanence of a delayed SIR epidemic model with general nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a SIR model with two delays and general nonlinear incidence rate is considered. The local and global asymptotical stabilities of the disease‐free equilibrium are given. The local asymptotical stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium are also established by analyzing the distribution of the characteristic values. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions for the permanence of the system are given. Some numerical simulations to support the analytical conclusions are carried out. At last, some conclusions are given. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

POPULATION EXTINCTION IN DETERMINISTICAND STOCHASTIC DISCRETE‐TIME EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH PERIODIC COEFFICIENTS WITH APPLICATIONS TO AMPHIBIAN POPULATIONS

ABSTRACT. Discrete‐time deterministic and stochastic epidemic models are formulated for the spread of disease in a structured host population. The models have applications to a fungal pathogen affecting amphibian populations. The host population is structured according to two developmental stages, juveniles and adults. The juvenile stage is a post‐metamorphic, nonreproductive stage, whereas the adult stage is reproductive. Each developmental stage is further subdivided according to disease status, either susceptible or infected. There is no recovery from disease. Each year is divided into a fixed number of periods, the first period represents a time of births and the remaining time periods there are no births, only survival within a stage, transition to another stage or transmission of infection. Conditions are derived for population extinction and for local stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is shown that high transmission rates can destabilize the disease‐free equilibrium and low survival probabilities can lead to population extinction. Numerical simulations illustrate the dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models.     

Global dynamics of SIS models with transport-related infection

To understand the effect of transport-related infection on disease spread, an epidemic model for several regions which are connected by transportation of individuals has been proposed by Cui, Takeuchi and Saito [J. Cui, Y. Takeuchi, Y. Saito, Spreading disease with transport-related infection, J. Theoret. Biol. 239 (2006) 376-390]. Transportation among regions is one of the main factors which affects the outbreak of diseases. The purpose of this paper is the further study of the local asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium and the global dynamics of the system. Sufficient conditions are established for global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Permanence is also discussed. It is shown that the disease is endemic in the sense of permanence if and only if the endemic equilibrium exists. This implies that transport-related infection on disease can make the disease endemic even if all the isolated regions are disease free.