Weak convergence of non-stationary multivariate marked processes with applications to martingale testing

This paper establishes the weak convergence of a class of marked empirical processes of possibly non-stationary and/or non-ergodic multivariate time series sequences under martingale conditions. The assumptions involved are similar to those in Brown's martingale central limit theorem. In particular, no mixing conditions are imposed. As an application, we propose a test statistic for the martingale hypothesis and we derive its asymptotic null distribution. Finally, a Monte Carlo study shows that the asymptotic results provide good approximations for small and moderate sample sizes. An application to the S&P 500 is also considered.     

Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data

This article studies the maximum likelihood inference on a class of Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data. Degradation data are special case of functional data with monotone trend. The setting for degradation data is one on which n independent subjects, each with a Wiener process with random drift and diffusion parameters, are observed at possible different times. Unit-to-unit variability is incorporated into the model by these random effects. EM algorithm is used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters. Asymptotic properties such as consistency and convergence rate are established. Bootstrap method is used for assessing the uncertainties of the estimators. Simulations are used to validate the method. The model is fitted to bridge beam data and corresponding goodness-of-fit tests are carried out. Failure time distributions in terms of degradation level passages are calculated and illustrated.     

随机变量序列加权和的强收敛性

本文讨论了一般随机变量序列加权和的强收敛性．作为推论，得到一类鞅差序列加权和的收敛定理和若干经典的独立随机变量序列的强大数定律；已有的若干结论是本文结果的特例．     

非齐次树上马氏链的若干强偏差定理

通过构造适当的非负鞅,将Doob鞅收敛定理应用于几乎处处收敛的研究,给出了一类非齐次树上马氏链场加权和滑动平均的若干强偏差定理.     

Semiparametric analysis based on weighted estimating equations for transformation models with missing covariates

Missing covariate data are very common in regression analysis. In this paper, the weighted estimating equation method (Qi et al., 2005) [25] is used to extend the so-called unified estimation procedure (Chen et al., 2002) [4] for linear transformation models to the case of missing covariates. The non-missingness probability is estimated nonparametrically by the kernel smoothing technique. Under missing at random, the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, with the asymptotic variance estimated consistently by the usual plug-in method. Moreover, the proposed estimators are more efficient than the weighted estimators with the inverse of true non-missingness probability as weight. Finite sample performance of the estimators is examined via simulation and a real dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed methods.     

On weighted interval entropy

Measures of uncertainty in past and residual lifetime distributions have been proposed in the information-theoretic literature. Recently, Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2006) introduced weighted differential entropy and its dynamic versions. These information-theoretic uncertainty measures are shift-dependent. In this paper, we study the weighted differential information measure for two-sided truncated random variables. This new measure is a generalization of recent dynamic weighted entropy measures. We study various properties of this measure, including its connection with weighted residual and past entropies, and we obtain its upper and lower bounds.     

Characterizations of bivariate models using dynamic Kullback-Leibler discrimination measures

In this paper, the residual Kullback-Leibler discrimination information measure is extended to conditionally specified models. The extension is used to characterize some bivariate distributions. These distributions are also characterized in terms of proportional hazard rate models and weighted distributions. Moreover, we also obtain some bounds for this dynamic discrimination function by using the likelihood ratio order and some preceding results.     

Nonparametric lack-of-fit tests for parametric mean-regression models with censored data

We developed two kernel smoothing based tests of a parametric mean-regression model against a nonparametric alternative when the response variable is right-censored. The new test statistics are inspired by the synthetic data and the weighted least squares approaches for estimating the parameters of a (non)linear regression model under censoring. The asymptotic critical values of our tests are given by the quantiles of the standard normal law. The tests are consistent against fixed alternatives, local Pitman alternatives and uniformly over alternatives in Hölder classes of functions of known regularity.     

Empirical likelihood inference for linear transformation models

Empirical likelihood inference is developed for censored survival data under the linear transformation models, which generalize Cox's [Regression models and life tables (with Discussion), J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 34 (1972) 187-220] proportional hazards model. We show that the limiting distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio is a weighted sum of standard chi-squared distribution. Empirical likelihood ratio tests for the regression parameters with and without covariate adjustments are also derived. Simulation studies suggest that the empirical likelihood ratio tests are more accurate (under the null hypothesis) and powerful (under the alternative hypothesis) than the normal approximation based tests of Chen et al. [Semiparametric of transformation models with censored data, Biometrika 89 (2002) 659-668] when the model is different from the proportional hazards model and the proportion of censoring is high.     

U-statistics in danach spaces

U-statistics in Banach spaces are considered and thoroughly investigated. The martingale structure, estimates of moments, the law of large numbers, the central limit theorem, the invariance principle, estimates of the rate of convergence, and large deviations are established     

鞅差序列加权和的几乎处处收敛(英文)

本文研究了一类鞅差序列加权和的收敛性的问题.利用一些基本不等式和截尾技术,获得了加权和的几乎处处收敛性,推广了关于独立同分布的随机变量序列的相关结果.     

Generalized beta prior models on fraction defective in reliability test planning

In many reliability analyses, the probability of obtaining a defective unit in a production process should not be considered constant even though the process is stable and in control. Engineering experience or previous data of similar or related products may often be used in the proper selection of a prior model to describe the random fluctuations in the fraction defective. A generalized beta family of priors, several maximum entropy priors and other prior models are considered for this purpose. In order to determine the acceptability of a product based on the lifelengths of some test units, failure-censored reliability sampling plans for location-scale distributions using average producer and consumer risks are designed. Our procedure allows the practitioners to incorporate a restricted parameter space into the reliability analysis, and it is reasonably insensitive to small disturbances in the prior information. Impartial priors are used to reflect prior neutrality between the producer and the consumer when a consensus on the elicited prior model is required. Nonetheless, our approach also enables the producer and the consumer to assume their own prior distributions. The use of substantial prior information can, in many cases, significantly reduce the amount of testing required. However, the main advantage of utilizing a prior model for the fraction defective is not necessarily reduced sample size but improved assessment of the true sampling risks. An example involving shifted exponential lifetimes is considered to illustrate the results.     

多重时间标度鞅半方差与加权鞅半方差β系数研究

本文根据投资者持有资产周期的不同,提出了基于小波多分辨率分析的多重时间标度CAPM模型,得到多重时间标度β系数。由于投资者在进行投资时更关注下行风险,本文进一步提出了基于鞅半方差与加权鞅半方差的下行β系数计算方法,并通过实证检验证明了用鞅半方差β系数与加权鞅半方差β系数来衡量系统风险较其他方法更具合理性及优越性。最后,本文将小波多分辨率分析与鞅半方差β系数及加权鞅半方差β系数结合,得到多重时间标度下的鞅半方差β系数及加权鞅半方差β系数计算方法。     

Martingale transforms with non-atomic limits and stochastic approximation

Summary A sufficient condition for the limit of a martingale transform to posses a continuous distribution is given. The result is used to show that for a stochastic approximation procedure, if the adjustment rate is too small then it would not converge to the target value a.s. Furthermore, if the adjustment rate is taken to be 1/n as usual but the derivative of the regression function at the target value is 0, then the convergence rate is shown to be logn instead of , the rate obtained when the derivative is non-zero.Research supported by the National Science Council, R.O.C.     

Robust semiparametric M-estimation and the weighted bootstrap

M-estimation is a widely used technique for statistical inference. In this paper, we study properties of ordinary and weighted M-estimators for semiparametric models, especially when there exist parameters that cannot be estimated at the convergence rate. Results on consistency, rates of convergence for all parameters, and consistency and asymptotic normality for the Euclidean parameters are provided. These results, together with a generic paradigm for studying semiparametric M-estimators, provide a valuable extension to previous related research on semiparametric maximum-likelihood estimators (MLEs). Although penalized M-estimation does not in general fit in the framework we discuss here, it is shown for a great variety of models that many of the forgoing results still hold, including the consistency and asymptotic normality of the Euclidean parameters. For semiparametric M-estimators that are not likelihood based, general inference procedures for the Euclidean parameters have not previously been developed. We demonstrate that our paradigm leads naturally to verification of the validity of the weighted bootstrap in this setting. For illustration, several examples are investigated in detail. The new M-estimation framework and accompanying weighted bootstrap technique shed light on a universal way of investigating semiparametric models.     

Empirical distributions in marked point processes

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the empirical distribution function derived from a stationary marked point process when a convex sampling window is expanding without bounds in all directions. We consider a random field model which assumes that the marks and the points are independent and admits dependencies between the marks. The main result is the weak convergence of the empirical process under strong mixing conditions on both independent components of the model. Applying an approximation principle weak convergence can be also shown for appropriately weighted empirical process defined from a stationary d-dimensional germ-grain process with dependent grains.     

Convergence of Weighted Empirical Measures

This article considers a system with infinitely many interacting particles, starting with a system of n interacting particles that is described by a system of n stochastic differential equations for the time-varying locations and weights. Any particle in the system interacts with others through the weighted empirical measure Uⁿ formed by the sum of weighted Dirac measures on the n particles. Weak convergence of the weighted empirical measure is studied under suitable conditions, such as bounded initial values, and linear growth of drift and diffusion coefficients. Thereafter, the limit of the weighted empirical measures is identified to be a martingale solution of the infinite interacting system.     

On the partial sums of Vilenkin-Fourier series

The aim of this paper is to investigate weighted maximal operators of partial sums of Vilenkin-Fourier series. Also, the obtained results we use to prove approximation and strong convergence theorems on the martingale Hardy spaces H _p , when 0 < p ≤ 1.     

The continuous kalman filter as the limit of the discrete kalman filter

In this paper we present a rigorous proof of the commonly held belief that the continuous time Kalman filter equations can be obtained as the limit of the discrete time Kalman filter equations. This is done by creating a uniformly integrable martingale using the discrete filter and showing that its limit, is the continuous filter     

Censored multiple regression by the method of average derivatives

This paper proposes a technique [termed censored average derivative estimation (CADE)] for studying estimation of the unknown regression function in nonparametric censored regression models with randomly censored samples. The CADE procedure involves three stages: firstly-transform the censored data into synthetic data or pseudo-responses using the inverse probability censoring weighted (IPCW) technique, secondly estimate the average derivatives of the regression function, and finally approximate the unknown regression function by an estimator of univariate regression using techniques for one-dimensional nonparametric censored regression. The CADE provides an easily implemented methodology for modelling the association between the response and a set of predictor variables when data are randomly censored. It also provides a technique for “dimension reduction” in nonparametric censored regression models. The average derivative estimator is shown to be root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimator of the unknown regression function is a local linear kernel regression estimator and is shown to converge at the optimal one-dimensional nonparametric rate. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed estimators work quite well.