The effect of population dispersal on the spread of a disease

The effect of population dispersal among n patches on the spread of a disease is investigated. Population dispersal does not destroy the uniqueness of a disease free equilibrium and its attractivity when the basic reproduction number of a disease R₀<1. When R₀>1, the uniqueness and global attractivity of the endemic equilibrium can be obtained if dispersal rates of susceptible individuals and infective individuals are the same or very close in each patch. However, numerical calculations show that population dispersal may result in multiple endemic equilibria and even multi-stable equilibria among patches, and also may result in the extinction of a disease, even though it cannot be eradicated in each isolated patch, provided the basic reproduction numbers of isolated patches are not very large.     

Mathematical analysis of a two-patch model of tuberculosis disease with staged progression

The spread of tuberculosis is studied through a two-patch epidemiological system SE₁ ? E_nI which incorporates migrations from one patch to another just by susceptible individuals. Our model is consider with bilinear incidence and migration between two patches, where infected and infectious individuals cannot migrate from one patch to another, due to medical reasons. The existence and uniqueness of the associated endemic equilibria are discussed. Quadratic forms and Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there exists in each case a unique endemic equilibrium (boundary equilibria and endemic equilibrium) which is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulation results are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Modeling and analysis of effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of infectious diseases

In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model for the effects of awareness programs on the spread of infectious diseases such as flu has been proposed and analyzed. In the modeling process it is assumed that disease spreads due to the contact between susceptibles and infectives only. The growth rate of awareness programs impacting the population is assumed to be proportional to the number of infective individuals. It is further assumed that due to the effect of media, susceptible individuals form a separate class and avoid contact with the infectives. The model is analyzed by using stability theory of differential equations. The model analysis shows that the spread of an infectious disease can be controlled by using awareness programs but the disease remains endemic due to immigration. The simulation analysis of the model confirms the analytical results.     

一类带有种群迁移的SIS传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设同一地区内易感者和染病者具有相同的迁移率系数,建立了一类两地区间种群迁移的SIS传染病模型,得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值条件,并借助比较定理和极限系统理论证明了无病平衡点和疾病不导致死亡时地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,最后讨论了种群迁移对传染病传播的影响.     

Birds movement impact on the transmission of West Nile virus between patches

Spatial heterogeneity plays an important role in the distribution and persistence of many infectious disease. In the paper, a multi-patch model for the spread of West Nile virus among $n$ discrete geographic regions is presented that incorporates a mobility process. In the mobility process, we assume that the birds can move among regions, but not the mosquitoes based on scale-space. We show that the movement of birds between patches is sufficient to maintain disease persistence in patches. We compute the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$. We prove that if $R_{0}<1$, then the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable. When $R_{0}>1$, we prove that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable on the biological domain. Finally, numerical simulations demonstrate that the disease becomes endemic in both patches when birds move back and forth between two regions.     

A METAPOPULATION MODEL WITH DISCRETE SIZE STRUCTURE

ABSTRACT. We consider a discrete size‐structured meta‐population model with the proportions of patches occupied by n individuals as dependent variables. Adults are territorial and stay on a certain patch. The juveniles may emigrate to enter a dispersers' pool from which they can settle on another patch and become adults. Absence of colonization and absence of emigration lead to extinction of the metapopula‐tion. We define the basic reproduction number R₀ of the metapopulation as a measure for its strength of persistence. The metapopulation is uniformly weakly persistent if R₀> 1. We identify subcritical bifurcation of persistence equilibria from the extinction equilibrium as a source of multiple persistence equilibria: it occurs, e.g., when the immigration rate, into occupied patches, exceeds the colonization rate (of empty patches). We determine that the persistence‐optimal dispersal strategy which maximizes the basic reproduction number is of bang‐bang type: If the number of adults on a patch is below carrying capacity all the juveniles should stay, if it is above the carrying capacity all the juveniles should leave.     

Permanence of dispersal population model with time delays

Permanence of a dispersal single-species population model is considered where environment is partitioned into several patches and the species requires some time to disperse between the patches. The model is described by delay differential equations. The existence of food-rich patches and small dispersions among the patches are proved to be sufficient to ensure partial permanence of the model. It is also shown that partial permanence ensures permanence if each food-poor patch is connected to at least one food-rich patch and if each pair in food-rich patches is connected. Furthermore, it is proved that partial persistence is ensured even under large dispersion among food-rich patches if the dispersion time is relatively small.     

基于两斑块和人口流动的SIR传染病模型的稳定性

根据传染病动力学原理,考虑人口在两斑块上流动且具有非线性传染率,建立了一类基于两斑块和人口流动的SIR传染病模型.利用常微分方程定性与稳定性方法,分析了模型永久持续性和非负平衡点的存在性,通过构造适当的Lyapunov函数和极限系统理论,获得无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件.研究结果表明:基本再生数是决定疾病流行与否的阈值,当基本再生数小于等于1时,感染者逐渐消失,病毒趋于灭绝;当基本再生数大于1并满足永久持续条件时,感染者持续存在且病毒持续流行并将成为一种地方病.     

一类有迁移的SIS流行病模型

研究一类种群有迁移的流行病模型,得到了这类模型的基本再生数R0,证明了R0＜1无病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的,而当R0＞1时无病平衡点是不稳定的.进一步讨论了疾病持续存在与无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局稳定的条件.     

Dynamics analysis of a quarantine model in two patches

A new deterministic model for assessing the impact of quarantine on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease in a two‐patch community is designed. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the imperfect nature of quarantine (in the two patches) could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. For the case when quarantined susceptible individuals do not acquire infection during quarantine, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium (i = 1,2) whenever the associated reproduction number for Patch i is greater than unity. The unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the invasion reproduction number of Patch 3 ? i is less than unity (and the associated reproduction number for Patch i exceeds unity). The model has at least one endemic equilibrium when its reproduction number exceeds unity (and the disease persists in both patches in this case). It is shown that adding multi‐patch dynamics to a single‐patch quarantine model (which allow the quarantine of susceptible individuals) in a single patch does not alter its quantitative dynamics (with respect to the existence and asymptotic stability of its associated equilibria as well as its backward bifurcation property). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extinction and periodic oscillations in an age-structured population model in a patchy environment

We consider an age-structured single-species population model in a patch environment consisting of infinitely many patches. Previous work shows that if the nonlinear birth rate is sufficiently large and the maturation time is small, then the model exhibits the usual transition from the trivial equilibrium to the positive (spatially homogeneous) equilibrium represented by a traveling wavefront. Here we show that (i) if the birth rate is so small that a patch alone cannot sustain a positive equilibrium then the whole population in the patchy environment will become extinct, and (ii) if the birth rate is large enough that each patch can sustain a positive equilibrium and if the maturation time is moderate then the model exhibits nonlinear oscillations characterized by the occurrence of multiple periodic traveling waves.     

Dynamics of an epidemic model with host migration

Host migration among discrete geographical regions is demonstrated as an important factor that brings about the diffusion and outbreak of many vector-host diseases. In the paper, we develop a mathematical model to explore the effect of host migration between two patches on the spread of a vector-host disease. Analytical results show that the reproduction number R₀ provides a threshold condition that determines the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease. If both the patches are identical, it is shown that an endemic equilibrium is locally stable. It is also shown that a unique endemic equilibrium, which exists when the disease cannot induce the death of the host, is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate the effect of host migration on the spread of the vector-host disease.     

Global properties of a two-scale network stochastic delayed human epidemic dynamic model

Complex population structure and the large-scale inter-patch connection human transportation underlie the recent rapid spread of infectious diseases of humans. Furthermore, the fluctuations in the endemicity of the diseases within patch dwelling populations are closely related with the hereditary features of the infectious agent. We present an SIR delayed stochastic dynamic epidemic process in a two-scale dynamic structured population. The disease confers temporary natural or infection-acquired immunity to recovered individuals. The time delay accounts for the time-lag during which naturally immune individuals become susceptible. We investigate the stochastic asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium of the scale structured mobile population, under environmental fluctuations and the impact on the emergence, propagation and resurgence of the disease. The presented results are demonstrated by numerical simulation results.     

Qualitative analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic system with logistic source and spontaneous infection in a heterogeneous environment

In this paper, we consider an SIS epidemic reaction–diffusion model with spontaneous infection and logistic source in a heterogeneous environment. The uniform bounds of solutions are established, and the global asymptotic stability of the constant endemic equilibrium is discussed in the case of homogeneous environment. This paper aims to analyze the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibria (when it exists) as the diffusion rate of the susceptible or infected population is small or large. Our results on this new model reveal that varying total population and spontaneous infection can enhance persistence of infectious disease, which may provide some implications on disease control and prediction.     

The Effect of Dispersal on Population Growth with Stage-structure

The effect of dispersal on the permanence of population in a polluted patch is studied in this paper. The authors constructed a single-species dispersal model with stage-structure in two patches. The analysis focuses on the case that the toxicant input in the polluted patch has a limit value. The authors derived the conditions under which the population will be either permanent, or extinct.     

The effect of diffusion on the permanence of Smith population model in a polluted patch

IntroductionThe effect of diffusion on the permanence of population has been studied in some refer-ences. LevinI1] set up the followiIlg model to study the effect of diffusion on the permanence ofpopulation:: f \' \ =.tvhere ur(t) defines the number of population i in patch p, uu = (ut,'. u:). f,u(uu) isthe int!.i11sic growth rate fOr population t, and D:' is the (1iffosive rate of population l frompatch 7 to patch U. Hastingsi2J proved that the positive equilibrium state is stab1e for suf…     

Asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium of a diffusive SIS epidemic system with saturated incidence rate and spontaneous infection

A susceptible‐infected‐susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction‐diffusion model with saturated incidence rate and spontaneous infection is considered. We establish the existence of endemic equilibrium by using a fixed‐point theorem. The global asymptotic stability of the constant endemic equilibrium is discussed in the case of homogeneous environment. We mainly investigate the effects of diffusion and saturation on asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium. When the saturated incidence rate tends to infinity, the susceptible and infective distributes in the habitat in a nonhomogeneous way; this result is in strong contrast with the case of no spontaneous infection, where the endemic equilibrium tends to the disease free equilibrium. Our analysis shows that the spontaneous infection can enhance the persistence of an infectious disease and may provide some useful implications on disease control.     

Global dynamics of SIS models with transport-related infection

To understand the effect of transport-related infection on disease spread, an epidemic model for several regions which are connected by transportation of individuals has been proposed by Cui, Takeuchi and Saito [J. Cui, Y. Takeuchi, Y. Saito, Spreading disease with transport-related infection, J. Theoret. Biol. 239 (2006) 376-390]. Transportation among regions is one of the main factors which affects the outbreak of diseases. The purpose of this paper is the further study of the local asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium and the global dynamics of the system. Sufficient conditions are established for global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Permanence is also discussed. It is shown that the disease is endemic in the sense of permanence if and only if the endemic equilibrium exists. This implies that transport-related infection on disease can make the disease endemic even if all the isolated regions are disease free.     

Asymptotic profiles of the positive steady state for an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model. Part I

To capture the impact of spatial heterogeneity of environment and movement of individuals on the persistence and extinction of a disease, Allen et al. in [L.J.S. Allen, B.M. Bolker, Y. Lou, A.L. Nevai, Asymptotic profiles of the steady states for an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. A 21 (1) (2008) 1-20] proposed a spatial SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) reaction-diffusion model, and studied the existence, uniqueness and particularly the asymptotic behavior of the endemic equilibrium as the diffusion rate of the susceptible individuals goes to zero in the case where a so-called low-risk subhabitat is created. In this work, we shall provide further understanding of the impacts of large and small diffusion rates of the susceptible and infected population on the persistence and extinction of the disease, which leads us to determine the asymptotic behaviors of the endemic equilibrium when the diffusion rate of either the susceptible or infected population approaches to infinity or zero in the remaining cases. Consequently, our results reveal that, in order to eliminate the infected population at least in low-risk area, it is necessary that one will have to create a low-risk subhabitat and reduce at least one of the diffusion rates to zero. In this case, our results also show that different strategies of controlling the diffusion rates of individuals may lead to very different spatial distributions of the population; moreover, once the spatial environment is modified to include a low-risk subhabitat, the optimal strategy of eradicating the epidemic disease is to restrict the diffusion rate of the susceptible individuals rather than that of the infected ones.