基于混合效应模型的医保费用测算及监控

近几年医改的一个核心内容就是医保支付方式的改革。2012年12月,人力资源和社会保障部、财政部、卫生部三部门联合出台了《关于开展基本医疗保险付费总额控制的意见》,提出在未来两年里,在所有医疗保险统筹地区实行总额预付工作。实行总额预付制的关键是如何科学合理的测算每家医院的预算总额。本文利用线性混合效应模型分别对某市684家医院的病人数,平均费用进行建模,给出每一家医院来年医保费用的合理参考,并且利用模型中的随机效应项自动识别医保费用和病人数异常的医院,为医保监管机构的监管提供科学依据。     

随机发展方程适度解的存在唯一性(Ⅱ)

讨论如下Hilbert空间中的半线性随机发展方程的Cauchy问题 dy(t)=[Ay(t) f(t,y(t))]dt G(t,y(t))dw(t) y(O)=V_u的适度解的存在唯一性,在更一般的条件下,得到了该问题的适度解的存在唯一性。     

随机收缩偶,随机收缩与随机算子方程的解

本文引入随机收缩偶,讨论具有随机定义域的随机集值(单值)算子方程公共随机解的存在性,建立随机收缩理论与公共随机不动点理论的联系,统一和推广了这两个方向的主要结果。 关健词:随机算子;方程;公共不动点。     

G谱估计的渐近性质

本文首次证明了G谱估计用来估计实正态的ARMA模型的谱密度时是渐近正态的。同时,进一步给出一个例子,说明它不是优效渐近正态的。     

Second-order random wave solutions for interfacial internal waves in N-layer density-stratified fluid

This paper studies the random internal wave equations describing the density interface displacements and the velocity potentials of N-layer stratified fluid contained between two rigid walls at the top and bottom. The density interface displacements and the velocity potentials were solved to the second-order by an expansion approach used by Longuet-Higgins （1963） and Dean （1979） in the study of random surface waves and by Song （2004） in the study of second- order random wave solutions for internal waves in a two-layer fluid. The obtained results indicate that the first-order solutions are a linear superposition of many wave components with different amplitudes, wave numbers and frequencies, and that the amplitudes of first-order wave components with the same wave numbers and frequencies between the adjacent density interfaces are modulated by each other. They also show that the second-order solutions consist of two parts： the first one is the first-order solutions, and the second one is the solutions of the second-order asymptotic equations, which describe the second-order nonlinear modification and the second-order wave-wave interactions not only among the wave components on same density interfaces but also among the wave components between the adjacent density interfaces. Both the first-order and second-order solutions depend on the density and depth of each layer. It is also deduced that the results of the present work include those derived by Song （2004） for second-order random wave solutions for internal waves in a two-layer fluid as a particular case.     

一类多维指数分布的参数估计

考虑生存函数为(F)(x1,x2,…,xn)=P{X1＞x1,…,Xn＞xn}=exp{-[n∑i=1(xi/θi)1/δ]δ}(0＜xi＜∞,0＜δ≤ 1,0＜θi＜∞,i=(1,n))的一类多维指数分布,给出了它的密度函数的表示式,并讨论了它的性质.提出了相关参数δ的估计(^δ),证明了(^δ)有相合性和渐近正态性,得到了(^δ)的渐近方差σ2δ.最后还给出了若干随机模拟的结果.     

Global Chaos Synchronization between Two New Different Chaotic Systems via Active Control

We present chaos synchronization between two new different chaotic systems by using active control. The proposed controller ensures that the states of the controlled chaotic response system asymptotically synchronizes the states of the drive system. Numerical simulations are shown to verify the result.     

中立型大系统的渐近稳定性

文[1]—[3]研究了中立型大系统的稳定性,获得了一些较好的结果。对相对中立型系统来讲,滞后线性系统的稳定性理论已比较完善。本文所提供的方法能较有效地克服判断中立型大系统稳定性的困难,所获得的结果不同于所有已知结果,并补充了这方面的研究。 1.线性系统我们考虑线性中立型大系统     

具有随机生存域的随机场

本文研究具有随机开参数集的随机场构造,获得了具有已知有穷维分布的随机场存在和唯一性条件。