基于蒙特卡罗方法的中国中长期煤炭需求预测

为避免传统预测方法的参数取值主观性问题,采用参数随机产生的蒙特卡罗方法预测中国中长期煤炭需求。首先分析了经济增长、能源结构和产业结构三个主要煤炭需求影响因素,并基于1980~2015年间各影响因素及煤炭消费的历史数据和最小二乘法的多元线性回归拟合煤炭需求方程。在此基础上,构建各影响因素的概率分布,采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟1981~2015年的煤炭需求,发现仿真结果可以较好拟合现实,可作为仿真预测的有效工具。结合经济新常态和能源结构调整的现状,控制参数取值范围进行蒙特卡罗仿真预测,结果显示,2016~2025年的煤炭需求呈先上升后下降趋势,并于2020年达到需求的峰值40.25亿吨,这些结果对于煤炭产业的科学决策有重要的作用。     

光谱法与共焦荧光成像法研究罗丹明B与ct-DNA的相互作用

采用吸收光谱、荧光光谱以及共焦荧光成像技术研究生理条件下罗丹明B(Rhodamine B,RB)与小牛胸腺DNA(ct-DNA)的相互作用以及相互作用模式。光谱研究结果显示,在450~650 nm的吸收光谱范围内,ct-DNA溶液对罗丹明B有减色作用;在560~660 nm荧光发射光谱范围内,ct-DNA对罗丹明B有荧光猝灭作用。同时,随着ct-DNA的加入,罗丹明B溶液的荧光偏振值发生变化,说明罗丹明B与ct-DNA能发生相互作用。在竞争性实验中,罗丹明B未能将亚甲基蓝(MB)从MB-ct-DNA复合体系中置换出来,说明罗丹明B与ct-DNA通过沟槽结合方式发生相互作用。共焦荧光成像结果显示,ct-DNA加入后,罗丹明B的荧光猝灭十分明显。利用罗丹明B和4',6-二脒基-2-苯基吲哚(DAPI)对He La细胞染色后进行共焦荧光成像,结果进一步证实罗丹明B与ct-DNA是通过沟槽结合作用将细胞核染成红色。     

高效液相色谱-飞行时间质谱联用法分析人参及人参皂苷与山楂配伍过程中的水解行为

利用高效液相色谱-飞行时间质谱联用的方法,分别对人参配伍山楂前后人参皂苷的变化进行分析,同时对人参皂苷Re、Rg1、Rb1、Rd与山楂配伍的水解规律进行系统研究,并与单独煎煮液、仿山楂配伍pH值煎煮液的水解产物进行比较,结果发现人参与山楂配伍后人参皂苷Rg1、Rb1含量明显减少,而人参皂苷Re、Rd、Rg2、Rg3、F2、Rh1含量明显增加,其中人参皂苷Re与山楂配伍后水解产物为人参皂苷20(R)-Rg2、20(S)-Rg2,仿山楂配伍pH值水解产物为人参皂苷20(R)-Rg2、20(S)-Rg2、Rg4、Rg6;人参皂苷Rg1与山楂配伍后水解产物为20(S)-Rh1、20(R)-Rh1,仿山楂pH值水解产物为20(S)-Rh1、20(R)-Rh1、Rh4、Rk3;人参皂苷Rb1与山楂配伍后水解产物为Rd、20(S)-Rg3,仿山楂pH值水解产物为F2、20(S)-Rg3;人参皂苷Rd与山楂配伍后水解产物为F2、20(S)-Rg3、20(R)-Rg3,仿山楂pH值水解产物为20(S)-Rg3、20(R)-Rg3。研究表明,不同人参皂苷和山楂配伍后与仿山楂pH值的水解产物并不相同,人参与山楂配伍改变了人参皂苷成分的种类及含量。本研究为临床方剂中人参与山楂配伍后成分的变化提供物质基础数据。     

基于可拓和组合赋权的矿井通风系统优化评价

矿井通风系统具有随机性、模糊性和不确定性等特征,一般单一的赋权评价法难以对其进行准确的优化评价.采用模糊层次分析法和熵权法的组合赋权法不仅可以提升对目标评价的准确性还能避免单一赋权的偶然性和局限性,结合可拓学的优度评价法,依据优度排序,得到最优方案.事实证明,基于组合赋权的可拓评价模型较其他评价方法更为客观,评价结果更加符合实际,可为解决类似优化方案问题提供一种新思路和方法.     

Multi‐switching combination–combination synchronization of non‐identical fractional‐order chaotic systems

In this paper, multi‐switching combination–combination synchronization scheme has been investigated between a class of four non‐identical fractional‐order chaotic systems. The fractional‐order Lorenz and Chen's systems are taken as drive systems. The combination–combination of multi drive systems is then synchronized with the combination of fractional‐order Lü and Rössler chaotic systems. In multi‐switching combination–combination synchronization, the state variables of two drive systems synchronize with different state variables of two response systems simultaneously. Based on the stability of fractional‐order chaotic systems, the multi‐switching combination–combination synchronization of four fractional‐order non‐identical systems has been investigated. For the synchronization of four non‐identical fractional‐order chaotic systems, suitable controllers have been designed. Theoretical analysis and numerical results are presented to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of the applied method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue

Forecasting enterprise-wide revenue is critical to many companies and presents several challenges and opportunities for significant business impact. This case study is based on model developments to address these challenges for forecasting in a large-scale retail company. Focused on multivariate revenue forecasting across collections of supermarkets and product categories, hierarchical dynamic models are natural: these are able to couple revenue streams in an integrated forecasting model, while allowing conditional decoupling to enable relevant and sensitive analysis together with scalable computation. Structured models exploit multi-scale modeling to cascade information on price and promotion activities as predictors relevant across categories and groups of stores. With a context-relevant focus on forecasting revenue 12 weeks ahead, the study highlights product categories that benefit from multi-scale information, defines insights into when, how, and why multivariate models improve forecast accuracy, and shows how cross-category dependencies can relate to promotion decisions in one category impacting others. Bayesian modeling developments underlying the case study are accessible in custom code for interested readers.     

铜黄公路某滑坡安全监测及预测研究

铜黄公路全长93.9km,其中遇到的各种滑坡30余处。为了研究这些滑坡的治理效果,对其变形与稳定进行了检测。以川口滑坡检测为例,运用灰色理论建立铜黄滑坡安全监控的GM(2,1)模型,其中非等时距位移序列采用拉格朗日插值函数转变为等时距序列。采用非等时距GM(2,1)和GM(1,1)模型对铜黄公路川口滑坡观测点进行安全预测。非等时距GM(2,1)模型预测滑坡变形精度总体较GM(1,1)模型高。由预测结果可见,治理后该滑坡是稳定的,预测结果和实际吻合良好。     

Nonlinear Dynamics of a Cantilever Beam Carrying an Attached Mass with 1:3:9 Internal Resonances

In this paper the nonlinear response of a base-excited slender beam carrying an attached mass is investigated with 1:3:9 internal resonances for principal and combinationparametric resonances. Here the method of normal forms is used to reduce the second order nonlinear temporal differential equation of motion of the system to a set offirst order nonlinear differential equations which are used to find the fixed-point, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic responses of the system.Stability and bifurcation analysis of the responses are carried out and bifurcation sets are plotted. Many chaotic phenomena are reported in this paper.