中国进口食品安全风险评估的统计学方法

近年来,随着对外贸易的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,我国已经成为食品进口大国。运用科学的方法优化检验资源配置,强化对进口食品安全的风险管理,是一个关系到人民福社的重大问题。国际上通行的做法是对不同种类的食品和检测项目的潜在风险进行评估,并根据评估结果制定有针对性的监督抽检计划,使得更多的检验资源可以投入到对高风险产品和项目的监管中去。我国在这方面的管理实践才刚刚起步,急需建立一套符合我国食品进口自身特点和管理需求的风险评价模型和相应的估计方法。本文借鉴了其它国家的相关做法,并结合我国进口食品的管理需求和历史检测数据的特点,制定了一套完整的风险评价和估计方法。     

误差合成空间固定系数模型的多阶段广义最小二乘估计

本文对时变系数的空间面板数据模型进行了研究,所研究的模型利用扰动项中的空间个体成分将不同时期的方程联系起来,同时,自变量系数和空间自回归系数是时变的,但不会随着观测个体的变动而变动。本文利用基于可行的广义最小二乘估计的多阶段方法对模型参数进行了估计,研究了估计量的大样本性质,并利用Monte Carlo方法模拟了其小样本性质。模拟结果表明,估计量的渐近性质随着样本容量的增加而改善。对中国省级地区间财税策略互动行为的实证案例也体现了本文理论模型的应用价值。     

Tail behavior of supremum of a random walk when Cramér’s condition fails

We investigate tail behavior of the supremum of a random walk in the case that Cramer＇s condition fails, namely, the intermediate case and the heavy-tailed ease. When the integrated distribution of the increment of the random walk belongs to the intersection of exponential distribution class and O-subexponential distribution class, under some other suitable conditions, we obtain some asymptotic estimates for the tail probability of the supremum and prove that the distribution of the supremum also belongs to the same distribution class. The obtained results generalize some corresponding results of N. Veraverbeke. Finally, these results are applied to renewal risk model, and asymptotic estimates for the ruin probability are presented.     

非线性Black-Scholes模型下算术平均亚式期权定价问题

在非线性Black-Scholes模型下,研究了算术平均亚式期权定价问题.首先利用单参数摄动方法,将亚式期权适合的偏微分方程分解成一系列常系数抛物方程.其次通过计算这些常系数抛物型方程的解,给出了算术平均亚式期权的近似定价公式.最后分析了近似结论的误差估计,并通过数值算例验证了所得近似结论的合理性.     

A narrow-linewidth continuous wave Ho：YAL03 laser with Fabry-Perot etalons

A narrow linewidth continuous wave Ho：YAP laser with two Fabry-Perot etalons pumped by a Tm：YLF laser is reported. The maximum output power reaches 8.3 W when the incident pump power is 15.8 W, with 52.5% optical-to- optical conversion efficiency and 62.6% slope efficiency. A stable laser output at 2118.1 nm is achieved, with a linewidth less than 0.4 nm （full width at half maximum）. The beam quality factor is M2- 1.25, measured by the traveling knife-edge method.     

基于路径选择的深海水下运动目标被动深度估计

深海水下运动目标的深度估计是目标分辨与识别中的重要一环。基于深海运动目标在深海中的直达波与海面反射波的到达时延与位置之间的关系，寻找时延图上运动目标的候选路径，利用候选路径模拟目标的运动路径，提出了一种可用单水听器实现的水下运动目标深度估计方法。通过用候选路径的估计时延与实际接收时延的比较对路径进行筛选，从而减少了需要的位置先验信息。2018年在南海进行的深海实验数据处理的结果表明该估计方法可行，对于实验中距离15km以内的拖曳声源，深度相对估计误差可以达到15%以内。     

微分方程解的存在区间的确定

从六个方面说明了确定一阶微分方程解的存在区间的方法.     

函数知识在最大利润问题中的应用例析

做生意讲效益,利润最大往往是商家最关心的问题之一.怎样获得最大利润,这是一个很有价值的实际问题,也是近年来中考试题的热点之一.如何加强学生对数学的认识,提高学生分析问题、解决问题的能力,运用数学知识为市场经济服务,现特选几例函数知识在最大利润问题中的应用与大家进行探讨.     

A corresponding-state approach to quark-cluster matter

The state of super-dense matter is essential for us to understand the nature of pulsars; however, non- perturbative quantum chromodynamics makes it very difficult to make direct calculations of the state of cold matter at realistic baryon number densities inside compact stars. Nevertheless, from an observational point of view, it is conjectured that pulsars could be made up of quark clusters since the strong coupling between quarks might render the quarks to be grouped in clusters. In this paper, we attempt to find an equation of state of condensed quark-cluster matter in a phenomenological way. Supposing that the quark-clusters could be analogized to inert gases, we apply here the corresponding-state approach to derive the equation of state of quark-cluster matter, as was similarly demonstrated for nuclear and neutron-star matter in the 1970s. According to the calculations that we have presented, the quark-cluster stars, which are composed of quark-cluster matter, could have a high maximum mass that is consistent with observations and, in turn, further observations of pulsar mass could also place a constraint on the properties of quark-cluster matter. We will also briefly discuss the melting heat during the solid-liquid phase conversion and its related astrophysical consequences.     

对流扩散方程的缩减基有限元法的后验误差

将缩减基(RB)方法和有限元方法相结合,在保证偏微分方程的有限元离散格式具有足够高精确度前提下,能够大幅度地降低有限元离散格式的维数,从而大大降低计算中内存容量和计算时间的消耗.针对对流扩散方程建立基于RB方法的Crank-Nicolson有限元离散格式,并给出后验误差估计结果.