Tail estimates for one-dimensional non-nearest-neighbor random walk in random environment

Suppose that the integers are assigned i.i.d. random variables {(β gx , . . . , β 1x , α x )} (each taking values in the unit interval and the sum of them being 1), which serve as an environment. This environment defines a random walk {X n } (called RWRE) which, when at x, moves one step of length 1 to the right with probability α x and one step of length k to the left with probability β kx for 1≤ k≤ g. For certain environment distributions, we determine the almost-sure asymptotic speed of the RWRE and show that the chance of the RWRE deviating below this speed has a polynomial rate of decay. This is the generalization of the results by Dembo, Peres and Zeitouni in 1996. In the proof we use a large deviation result for the product of random matrices and some tail estimates and moment estimates for the total population size in a multi-type branching process with random environment.     

Equivalent conditions of local asymptotics for the solutions of defective renewal equations, with applications

The paper obtains some equivalent conditions of local asymptotics for the solutions of defective renewal equations in the heavy-tailed case. As applications, the paper gives a different proof of a classical result about the local distribution of the supremum of a random walk. These results are also applied in examples involving the renewal function for terminating renewal processes and the age-dependent branching processes.     

EQUIVALENT CONDITIONS OF LOCAL ASYMPTOTICS FOR THE OVERSHOOT OF A RANDOM WALK WITH HEAVY-TAILED INCREMENTS

This article gives the equivalent conditions of the local asymptotics for the overshoot of a random walk with heavy-tailed increments, from which we find that the above asymptotics are different from the local asymptotics for the supremum of the random walk. To do this, the article first extends and improves some existing results about the solutions of renewal equations.     

Precise asymptotics for random matrices and random growth models

The author considers the largest eigenvaiues of random matrices from Gaussian unitary ensemble and Laguerre unitary ensemble, and the rightmost charge in certain random growth models. We obtain some precise asymptotics results, which are in a sense similar to the precise asymptotics for sums of independent random variables in the context of the law of large numbers and complete convergence. Our proofs depend heavily upon the upper and lower tail estimates for random matrices and random growth models. The Tracy-Widom distribution plays a central role as well.     

How does innovation's tail risk determine marginal tail risk of a stationary financial time series?

We discuss the relationship between the marginal tail risk probability and theinnovation's tail risk probability for some stationary financial time series models. We firstgive the main results on the tail behavior of a class of infinite weighted sums of randomvariables with heavy-tailed probabilities. And then, the main results are applied to threeimportant types of time series models; infinite order moving averages, the simple bilineartime series and the solutions of stochastic difference equations. The explicit formulasare given to describe how the marginal tail probabilities come from the innovation's tailprobabilities for these time series. Our results can be applied to the tail estimation of timeseries and are useful for risk analysis in finance.     

The Asymptotic Behavior of the Ruin Probability within a Random Horizon

Subject to the assumption that the common distribution of claim sizes belongs to the extendedregular variation class,the present work obtains a simple asymptotic formula for the ruin probability within arandom or nonrandom horizon in the renewal model.     

Asymptotic behavior for sums of non-identically distributed random variables

For any given positive integer m, let X_i, 1 ≤ i ≤ m be m independent random variables with distributions F_i, 1 ≤ i ≤ m. When all the summands are nonnegative and at least one of them is heavy-tailed, we prove that the lower limit of the ratio ■equals 1 as x →∞. When the summands are real-valued, we also obtain some asymptotic results for the tail probability of the sums. Besides, a local version as well as a density version of the above results is also presented.     

RENEWAL THEOREM FOR （L, 1）-RANDOM WALK IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

We consider a random walk on Z in random environment with possible jumps {-L,…, -1, 1}, in the case that the environment {ωi ： i ∈ Z} are i.i.d.. We establish the renewal theorem for the Markov chain of ＂the environment viewed from the particle＂ in both annealed probability and quenched probability, which generalize partially the results of Kesten （1977） and Lalley （1986） for the nearest random walk in random environment on Z, respectively. Our method is based on （L, 1）-RWRE formulated in Hong and Wang the intrinsic branching structure within the （2013）.     

On total progeny of multitype Galton-Watson process and the first passage time of random walk on lattice

In this paper,we form a method to calculate the probability generating function of the total progeny of multitype branching process.As examples,we calculate probability generating function of the total progeny of the multitype branching processes within random walk which could stay at its position and(2-1) random walk.Consequently,we could give the probability generating functions and the distributions of the first passage time of corresponding random walks.Especially,for recurrent random walk which could stay at its position with probability 0 r 1,we show that the tail probability of the first passage time decays as 2/(π(1-r)~(1/2)) n~(1/1)= when n →∞.     

Asymptotic ruin probabilities of the renewalmodel with constant interest force and dependent heavy-tailed claims

In this paper,we investigate the asymptotic behavior for the finite- and infinite-time ruin probabilities of a nonstandard renewal model in which the claims are identically distributed but not necessarily independent. Under the assumptions that the identical distribution of the claims belongs to the class of extended regular variation(ERV) and that the tails of joint distributions of every two claims are negligible compared to the tails of their margins,we obtain the precise approximations for the finite- and infinite-time ruin probabilities.     

A local probability exponential inequality for the large deviation of an empirical process indexed by an unbounded class of functions and its application

A local probability exponential inequality for the tail of large deviation of an empirical process over an unbounded class of functions is proposed and studied. A new method of truncating the original probability space and a new symmetrization method are given. Using these methods, the local probability exponential inequalities for the tails of large deviations of empirical processes with non-i.i.d. independent samples over unbounded class of functions are established. Some applications of the inequalities are discussed. As an additional result of this paper, under the conditions of Kolmogorov theorem, the strong convergence results of Kolmogorov on sums of non-i.i.d. independent random variables are extended to the cases of empirical processes indexed by unbounded classes of functions, the local probability exponential inequalities and the laws of the logarithm for the empirical processes are obtained.     

THE CONSTRUCTION OF MULTITYPE CANONICAL MARKOV BRANCHING CHAINS IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS

The investigation for branching processes has a long history by their strong physics background, but only a few authors have investigated the branching processes in random environments. First of all, the author introduces the concepts of the multitype canonical Markov branching chain in random environment (CMBCRE) and multitype Markov branching chain in random environment (MBCRE) and proved that CMBCRE must be MBCRE, and any MBCRE must be equivalent to another CMBCRE in distribution. The main results of this article are the construction of CMBCRE and some of its probability properties.     

Strong representation of weak convergence

Skorokhod's representation theorem states that if on a Polish space,there is a weakly convergent sequence of probability measures μnw→μ0,as n →∞,then there exist a probability space(Ω,F,P) and a sequence of random elements Xnsuch that Xn→ X almost surely and Xnhas the distribution function μn,n = 0,1,2,... We shall extend the Skorokhod representation theorem to the case where if there are a sequence of separable metric spaces Sn,a sequence of probability measures μnand a sequence of measurable mappings n such that μnn-1w→μ0,then there exist a probability space(Ω,F,P) and Sn-valued random elements Xndefined on Ω,with distribution μnand such that n(Xn) → X0 almost surely. In addition,we present several applications of our result including some results in random matrix theory,while the original Skorokhod representation theorem is not applicable.     

Hajek-Renyi-type Inequality for a Class of Random Variable Sequences and Its Applications

In this paper, we obtain the Hejek-Renyi-type inequality for a class of random variable sequences and give some applications for associated random variable sequences, strongly positive dependent stochastic sequences and martingale difference sequences which generalize and improve the results of Prakasa Rao and Soo published in Statist. Probab. Lett., 57（2002） and 78（2008）. Using this result, we get the integrability of supremum and the strong law of large numbers for a class of random variable sequences.     

A note on multitype branching process with bounded immigration in random environment

In this paper, we study the total number of progeny, W, before regenerating of multitype branching process with immigration in random environment. We show that the tail probability of |W| is of order t-κ as t→∞, with κ some constant. As an application, we prove a stable law for (L-1) random walk in random environment, generalizing the stable law for the nearest random walk in random environment (see "Kesten, Kozlov, Spitzer: A limit law for random walk in a random environment. Compositio Math., 30, 145-168 (1975)").     

Maximum likelihood estimation via duality for cell probabilities subject to convex and log-convex constraints

This article proposes a method for fitting models subject to a convex and log-convex constraint on the probability vector of a product multinomial （binomial） distribution. We present an iterative algorithm for finding the restricted maximum likelihood estimates （MLEs） of the probability vector and show that the algorithm converges to the true solution. Some examples are discussed to illustrate the method.     

Explicit Expressions for the Ruin Probabilities of Erlang Risk Processes with Pareto Individual Claim Distributions

In this paper we first consider a risk process in which claim inter-arrival times and the time untilthe first claim have an Erlang (2) distribution.An explicit solution is derived for the probability of ultimateruin,given an initial reserve of u when the claim size follows a Pareto distribution.Follow Ramsay,Laplacetransforms and exponential integrals are used to derive the solution,which involves a single integral of realvalued functions along the positive real line,and the integrand is not of an oscillating kind.Then we showthat the ultimate ruin probability can be expressed as the sum of expected values of functions of two differentGamma random variables.Finally,the results are extended to the Erlang(n) case.Numerical examples aregiven to illustrate the main results.     

Explicit Stationary Distribution of the （L, 1）-reflecting Random Walk on the Half Line

In this paper,we consider the（L,1） state-dependent reflecting random walk（RW） on the half line,which is an RW allowing jumps to the left at a maximal size L.For this model,we provide an explicit criterion for（positive） recurrence and an explicit expression for the stationary distribution.As an application,we prove the geometric tail asymptotic behavior of the stationary distribution under certain conditions.The main tool employed in the paper is the intrinsic branching structure within the（L,1）-random walk.     

Sequential Confidence Bands for Quantile Densities Under Truncated and Censored Data

In this paper an asymptotic distribution is obtained for the maximal deviation between the kernel quantile density estimator and the quantile density when the data are subject to random left truncation and right censorship. Based on this result we propose a fully sequential procedure for construct ing a fixed-width confidence band for the quantile density on a finite interval and show that the procedure has the desired coverage probability asymptotically as the width of the band approaches zero.     

The Convergence of the Sums of Independent Random Variables Under the Sub-linear Expectations

Let {Xn;n≥1} be a sequence of independent random variables on a probability space(Ω,F,P) and Sn=∑k=1n Xk.It is well-known that the almost sure convergence,the convergence in probability and the convergence in distribution of Sn are equivalent.In this paper,we prove similar results for the independent random variables under the sub-linear expectations,and give a group of sufficient and necessary conditions for these convergence.For proving the results,the Levy and Kolmogorov maximal inequalities for independent random variables under the sub-linear expectation are established.As an application of the maximal inequalities,the sufficient and necessary conditions for the central limit theorem of independent and identically distributed random variables are also obtained.