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2013年6月3日,吉林禽业公司发生大火,300多名员工中120人遇难,是我国2000年以来死亡人数最多的一次火灾.此次火灾造成巨大伤亡的一个重要原因是厂房的6个出口只有3个可用,并且员工不知道每个出口的可用性信息.本文运用经典的地面场模型对吉林禽业火灾逃生过程进行模拟,研究了厂房各出口的重要性差异以及出口的可用性对逃生效果的影响.结果表明,如果多开一个出口,最多可挽救54.3%的遇难者,如果6个出口全部可用,76.6%的遇难者能够逃离.另外,在出口可用性信息完全掌握的情况下,遇难人数也会减少21.6%.由此可见,保证人群集聚现场出口的可用性以及信息的及时流通对于保护人民的生命财产安全至关重要. 相似文献
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Short-message (SM) is one of the most frequently used communication channels in modern society. Based on the SM communication records provided by some volunteers, we investigate the statistics of SM communication pattern, including the inter-event time distributions between two consecutive short messages and two conversations, and the distribution of message number contained in a complete conversation. In the individual level, the empirical result raises strong evidence that the human activity pattern, exhibiting a heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution, is driven by a non-Poisson process. 相似文献
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We propose a strategy updating mechanism based on pursuing the highest average payoff to investigate the prisoner's dilemma game and the snowdrift game. We apply the new rule to investigate cooperative behaviours on regular, small-world, scale-free networks, and find spatial structure can maintain cooperation for the prisoner's dilemma game. fn the snowdrift game, spatial structure can inhibit or promote cooperative behaviour which depends on payoff parameter. We further study cooperative behaviour on scale-free network in detail. Interestingly, non-monotonous behaviours observed on scale-free network with middle-degree individuals have the lowest cooperation level. We also find that large-degree individuals change their strategies more frequently for both games. 相似文献
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In order to exhibit the meta-stable states, several slow-to-start rules have been investigated as modification to Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model. These models can reproduce some realistic phenomena which are absent in the original NS model. But in these models, the size of cluster is still not considered as a useful parameter. In real traffic, the slow-to-start motion of a standing vehicle often depends on the degree of congestion which can be measured by the clusters' size. According to this idea, we propose a cluster-size dependent slow-to-start model based on the speed- dependent slow-to-start rule (VDR) model. It gives expected results through simulations. Comparing with the VDR model, our new model has a better traffic efficiency and shows richer complex characters.[第一段] 相似文献
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合作行为常见于生物系统和社会系统中, 而博弈论为研究自私个体间的合作行为提供了一个有力的工具。博弈论又称对策论, 指的是研究多个个体之间在特定条件制约下的对局里利用相关方的策略, 而实施对应策略的学科。如美苏核武竞争博弈, 如果双方都选择加入核武裁撤, 那么双方的总收益是最高的, 然而诱惑却是等待对方摧毁核武设施而自己保留一些。由此看出, 合作能够获得较高的集体收益, 然而个体由于自私通常会选择背叛以获得较高的自身收益。因此维持和促进合作行为的涌现一直是博弈论的一个挑战。其中一些典型的模型, 如囚徒困境博弈(prisoner's dilemma game), 雪堆博弈(snow-drift game)和公共物品博弈(public goods game)等被广泛研究。 相似文献