The matrix rate of return

In this paper we give definitions of matrix rates of return which do not depend on the choice of basis describing baskets. We give their economic interpretation. The matrix rate of return describes baskets of arbitrary type and extends portfolio analysis to the complex variable domain. This allows us for simultaneous analysis of evolution of baskets parameterized by complex variables in both continuous and discrete time models.     

Gain–loss asymmetry for emerging stock markets

Stock indexes for some European emerging markets are analyzed using an investment-horizon approach. Austrian ATX index and Dow Jones have been studied and compared with several emerging European markets. The optimal investment horizons are plotted as a function of an absolute return value. Gain–loss asymmetry, originally found for American DJIA index, is observed for all analyzed data. It is shown, that this asymmetry has different character for emerging and for established markets. For established markets, gain curve lies typically above loss curve, whereas in the case of emerging markets the situation is just the opposite. We propose a measure quantifying the gain–loss asymmetry that clearly exhibits a difference between emerging and established markets.     

聚类分析在股票市场板块分析中的应用

本文将聚类分析应用于股票市场的研究,研究实例表明,聚类分析方法是股市板块分析中的一种有效、实用的方法     

AN OPTIMAL INVESTMENT／CONSUMPTIONPROBLEM WITH HIGHER BORROWING RATE

In this paper, optimal investment and consumption decisions for an optimal choiceproblem in infinite borizon are considered, for an investor who has available a bank account anda stock whose price is a log normal diffusion. The bank pays at an interest rate r for any de-posit, and takes at a larger rate / for any loan. As in the paper of Xu Wensheng and ChenShuping in JAMS(B), where an analogous problem in finite horizon is studied, optimal strategies are obtained via Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (ladE) equation which is derived from dynamic c1-programming principle. For the specific HARA case, i.e. U(t,c)=e^-βtc^1-R/1-R, this paper getsthe optimal consumption and optimal investment in the form of c^‘1 =β -^-g/Rwi and π^‘1= b -- γ / Rσ^2wr, with γ1,=max{γ,min{γ‘,b--Rσ^2‘} },^-g=(1--R)[γ (b-γ)^2/2Rσ^2]. This result coincides with the classical one under condition γ‘ ≡γ.     

Existence and uniqueness of an optimum in the infinite-horizon portfolio-cum-saving model with semimartingale investments

The model considered here is essentially that formulated in the author's previous paper Conditions for Optimality in the Infinite-Horizon Portfolio-cum-Saving Problem with Semimartingale Investments, Stochastics and Stochastics Reports 29 (1990), 133-171. In this model, the vector process representing returns to investments is a general semimartingale. Processes defining portfolio plans arc here required only to be predictable and non-negative. Existence of an optimal portfolio-cum-saving plan is proved under slight conditions of integrability imposed on the welfare functional; the proofs rely on properties of weak precompactness of portfolio and utility sequences in suitable L _p spaces together with dominated and monotone convergence arguments. Conditions are also obtained for the uniqueness of the portfolio plan generating a given returns process (i.e. for the uniqueness of the integrands generating a given sum of semimartingale integrals) and for the uniqueness of an optimal plan; here use is made of random measures associated with the jumps of a semimartingale     

Conditions for optimality in the infinite-horizon portfolio-cum-saving problem with semimartingale investments

A model of optimal accumulation of capital and portfolio choice over an infinite horizon in continuous time is formulated in which the vector process representing returns to investments isa general semimartingale. Methods of stochastic calculus and calculus of variations are used to obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality involving martingale properties ofthe shadow price processes associated with alternative portfolio cum saving plans.The relationship between such conditions and portfolio equations is investigated.The results are appliedtospecial cases where the returns process has stationary independent increments and the utility function has the discounted relative risk aversion form     

保险公司的最优投资和再保险策略

在保险公司既可以做证券(股票和债券)投资,同时又采取比例再保险策略的情况下,通过对经典的Cramér-Lundberg保险公司盈余过程模型的连续扩散近似,利用动态规划原理分别得出了在破产概率最小和终值期望效用最大两种目标函数下,保险公司的最优投资和最优再保策略的显式解和对应的目标函数值.对两种目标函数下的最优策略做了比较研究.     

Real options valuation of forest plantation investments in Brazil

In this paper, we consider investments in eucalyptus plantations in Brazil. For such projects, we discuss real options valuation in the place conventional methods such as IRR or NPV, possibly with CAPM. Traditionally, real options valuation assumes complete markets and neglects market imperfections. Yet, market frictions, such as transaction costs, interest rate spreads, and restricted short positions, can play an important role. We extend real options valuation to allow incomplete and imperfect markets. The value is obtained as a competitive price, given markets of competing investment opportunities, such as real and financial assets. Under perfect and complete markets, such valuation method is consistent with conventional real options theory. Stochastic programming and standard software is used for valuation of eucalyptus plantations. We estimate the underlying interdependent diffusion processes of stock market, interest rates, exchange rates and pulpwood price, and derive novel expressions of stochastic integrals to be employed in scenario generation for discrete time stochastic programming.     

Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty

Deregulated infrastructure industries exhibit stiff competition for market share. Firms may be able to limit the effects of competition by launching new projects in stages. Using a two-stage real options model, we explore the value of such flexibility. We first demonstrate that the value of investing in a sequential manner for a monopolist is positive but decreases with uncertainty. Next, we find that a typical duopoly firm’s value relative to a monopolist’s decreases with uncertainty as long as the loss in market share is high. Intriguingly, this result is reversed for a low loss in market share. We finally show that this loss in value is reduced if a firm invests in a sequential manner and specify the conditions under which sequential capacity expansion is more valuable for a duopolist firm than for a monopolist.     

Optimal consumption–investment and life-insurance purchase strategy for couples with correlated lifetimes

This paper presents a technique to solve the problem where a couple aims to optimize their consumption, investment, and life-insurance purchasing strategies, thereby maximizing their family objective until retirement. Assumed correlated lifetimes of the two wage earners are modeled by using both the copula and common-shock models. Subsequently, closed-form solutions are obtained for determination of the optimal strategies in both the copula and a special case of the common-shock models. As observed, use of the copula model is more advantageous in its provision of closed-form strategies and ability to distinguish mortality impacts. The optimization problem considered herein is investigated under a Markovian setting and solved using the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the utility of the proposed optimization strategy.