On the convergence of finite linear predictors of stationary processes

It is shown that the finite linear least-squares predictor of a multivariate stationary process converges to its Kolmogorov-Wiener predictor at an exponential rate, provided that the entries of its spectral density matrix are smooth functions. Also, the same rate of convergence holds for the partial sums of the Kolmogorov-Wiener predictor.     

Admissibility of estimators of the probability of unobserved outcomes

The problem of estimating the probability of unobserved outcomes or, as it is sometimes called, the conditional probability of a new species, is studied. Good's estimator, which is essentially the same as Robbins' estimator, namely the number of singleton species observed divided by the sample size, is studied from a decision theory point of view. The results obtained are as follows: (1) When the total number of different species is assumed bounded by some known number, Good's and Robbins' estimators are inadmissible for squared error loss. (2) If the number of different species can be infinite, Good's and Robbins' estimators are admissible for squared error loss. (3) Whereas Robbins' estimator is a UMVUE for theunconditional probability of a new species obtained in one extra sample point, Robbins' estimator is not a uniformly minimum mean squared error unbiased estimator of the conditional probability of a new species. This answers a question raised by Robbins. (4) It is shown that for Robbins' model and squared error loss, there are admissible Bayes estimators which do not depend only on a minimal sufficient statistic. A discussion of interpretations and significance of the results is offered. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-88-22622.     

Necessary conditions for dominating the James-Stein estimator

This paper develops necessary conditions for an estimator to dominate the James-Stein estimator and hence the James-Stein positive-part estimator. The ultimate goal is to find classes of such dominating estimators which are admissible. While there are a number of results giving classes of estimators dominating the James-Stein estimator, the only admissible estimator known to dominate the James-Stein estimator is the generalized Bayes estimator relative to the fundamental harmonic function in three and higher dimension. The prior was suggested by Stein and the domination result is due to Kubokawa. Shao and Strawderman gave a class of estimators dominating the James-Stein positive-part estimator but were unable to demonstrate admissiblity of any in their class. Maruyama, following a suggestion of Stein, has studied generalized Bayes estimators which are members of a point mass at zero and a prior similar to the harmonic prior. He finds a subclass which is minimax and admissible but is unable to show that any in his class with positive point mass at zero dominate the James-Stein estimator. The results in this paper show that a subclass of Maruyama's procedures including the class that Stein conjectured might contain members dominating the James-Stein estimator cannot dominate the James-Stein estimator. We also show that under reasonable conditions, the “constant” in shrinkage factor must approachp-2 for domination to hold.     

Unbiased Estimation for a Multivariate Exponential whose Components have a Common Shift

It is shown that for independent and identically distributed random vectors, for which the components are independent and exponentially distributed with a common shift, we can construct unbiased estimators of their density, derived from the Uniform Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator (UMVUE) of their distribution function. As direct applications of the UMVUEs of the density functions we present a Chi-square goodness of fit test of the model, and give two tables of the UMVUEs of some commonly used functions of the unknown parameters of the multivariate exponential model considered in this paper.     

非线性互补问题的一种不可行非内点连续方法

基于 Chen- Mangasarian光滑函数的一个子类 ,针对单调非线性互补问题给出了一种不可行非内点连续方法预估校正算法 ,并在适当的条件下 ,证明了算法具有全局线性收敛性和局部二次收敛性。     

A Comparison of Restricted and Unrestricted Estimators in Estimating Linear Functions of Ordered Scale Parameters of Two Gamma Distributions

The problem of estimating linear functions of ordered scale parameters of two Gamma distributions is considered. A necessary and sufficient condition on the ratio of two coefficients is given for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) to dominate the crude unbiased estimator (UE) in terms of mean square error. A modified MLE which satisfies the restriction is also suggested, and a necessary and sufficient condition is also given for it to dominate the admissible estimator based solely on one sample. The estimation of linear functions of variances in two sample problem and also of variance components in a one-way random effect model is mentioned.     

广义区间估计及其最优性(Ⅳ)

本文在提出了广义区间估计以及其上的最优性概念之后 ,证明了广义区间估计与假设检验的最优性之间的关系 ,推演了一个重要区间估计的最优性     

一般混合线性模型联合估计的一个最优性

本文从一个新的角度 ,刻划了一般的混合线性模型的一个最优性质 .这一性质比最小方差性更为直观 .     

广义正交表和正交表的裂区试验设计法的比较

裂区试验设计方法是在正交表的基础上进行的.根据试验设计的数据分析结论要求具有再现性这一原理,将证明这种裂区试验设计法要有条件的使用才是合理的.由于广义正交表是保证设计表具有再现性的基本设计表,根据广义正交表来研究这种裂区试验设计方法的合理性.研究结果显示在裂区试验设计法对应的设计表是广义正交表,并且相应的数据分析方法采用广义正交表的数据分析方法时,才能保证其数据分析结论具有客观一致性和可重复再现性.     

HIV/AIDS epidemic fractional-order model

In this paper a non-linear mathematical model with fractional order ?, 0 < ? ≤ 1 is presented for analyzing and controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS. Both the disease-free equilibrium E₀ and the endemic equilibrium E^* are found and their stability is discussed using the stability theorem of fractional order differential equations. The basic reproduction number R₀ plays an essential role in the stability properties of our system. When R₀ < 1 the disease-free equilibrium E₀ is attractor, but when R₀ > 1, E₀ is unstable and the endemic equilibrium (EE) E^* exists and it is an attractor. Finally numerical Simulations are also established to investigate the influence of the system parameter on the spread of the disease.