Incorporating ergonomic risks into assembly line balancing

In manufacturing, control of ergonomic risks at manual workplaces is a necessity commanded by legislation, care for health of workers and economic considerations. Methods for estimating ergonomic risks of workplaces are integrated into production routines at most firms that use the assembly-type of production. Assembly line re-balancing, i.e., re-assignment of tasks to workers, is an effective and, in case that no additional workstations are required, inexpensive method to reduce ergonomic risks. In our article, we show that even though most ergonomic risk estimation methods involve nonlinear functions, they can be integrated into assembly line balancing techniques at low additional computational cost. Our computational experiments indicate that re-balancing often leads to a substantial mitigation of ergonomic risks.     

台风灾害快速评估信息系统设计与开发

以台风综合强度指数和台风风场模型的理论为基础,采用C#＋ArcEngine技术进行二次开发,设计并开发了一套以台风综合强度和影响范围评估为主要功能的台风灾害快速评估系统.提出了一种更全面的台风致灾因子危险性评估方法,以期为台风灾害风险评估提供基础.     

基于MEMS惯性技术的鞋式个人导航系统

研究了低精度鞋式个人惯性导航系统的导航修正算法.该系统由低精度MEMS惯性IMU单元组成,固联在步行者的鞋上.导航算法在传统捷联惯性导航算法基础上,引入了零速修正技术,根据人行走时脚部运动的加速度统计特性,设计了一种比力模值+滑动方差检测算法,用以检测行走过程中的静止时间段.然后通过设计的改良卡尔曼滤波器在静止时间段内滤波估计导航姿态、速度和位置的计算误差,通过反馈校正可以提高原系统的导航精度.最后通过两组MEMS实物实验验证了导航修正算法的有效性和可行性,并指出了进一步的研究方向.     

Gumbel分布的简单贝叶斯估计

在实际应用中,两参数Gumbel分布的贝叶斯估计往往需要预先知道Gumbel参数的二维联合先验分布。由于获取先验分布的主观性和统计推断的复杂性,目前有关Gumbel分布贝叶斯估计理论及其性质的讨论还比较少,更不要说获得较为简单的Gumbel分布的贝叶斯估计。本文基于Kaminskiy和Vasiliy提出的简单贝叶斯估计过程,利用可靠度函数估计的区间形式表示先验信息,从而得到两个参数Gumbel分布的简单贝叶斯估计。基于此先验信息,该估计过程构造了Gumbel参数的连续联合先验分布,给出了在给定任意时点的可靠度(或累积密度)及其标准差的后验估计,为可靠性与风险评估中简单快速的使用贝叶斯估计刻画极端事件提供了可能.     

企业协同知识创新的风险识别与评价

协同知识创新是企业降低创新成本,提高创新能力的重要手段.由于企业知识创新具有高度的不确定性和不可预测性,因此,有效地利用企业协同优势,有针对性地降低协同知识创新的风险,是协同知识创新活动得以顺利开展的重要条件.影响协同知识创新的内外因素有很多,利用粗糙集理论对这些因素进行简约,消除冗余因素,得到在协同知识创新中的核心因素;确定约简集因素权重,判断协同知识创新的风险程度,为协同知识创新的决策提供依据.     

Integrating link-based discrete credit charging scheme into discrete network design problem

In this paper, we present an optimization model for integrating link-based discrete credit charging scheme into the discrete network design problem, to improve the transport performance from the perspectives of both transport network planning and travel demand management. The proposed model is a mixed-integer nonlinear bilevel programming problem, which includes an upper level problem for the transport authority and a lower level problem for the network users. The lower level sub-model is the traffic network user equilibrium (UE) formulation for a given network design strategy determined by the upper level problem. The network user at the lower level tries to minimize his/her own generalized travel cost (including both the travel time and the value of the credit charged for using the link) by choosing his/her route. While the transport authority at the upper level tries to find the optimal number of lanes and credit charging level with their locations to minimize the total system travel time (or maximize the transportation system performance). A genetic algorithm is used to solve the proposed mixed-integer nonlinear bilevel programming problem. Numerical experiments show the efficiency of the proposed model for traffic congestion mitigation, reveal that interaction effects across the tradable credit scheme and the discrete network design problem which amplify their individual effects. Moreover, the integrated model can achieve better performance than the sequential decision problems.     

An algebraic translation task solved by grade 7–9 students

In this study, the author examined student attempts to translate a verbal problem into an algebraic statement relating two variables, after they had solved an arithmetic question from the same problem. A total of 645 students from New England (U.S.A.) answered the problem on a mathematics assessment administered at the beginning of the school year. Among students who could solve the arithmetic part of the problem, the use of variables in the correct conventional notation appeared from grade 7 and continuously increased through grade 9. These results suggest that there is a relationship between students’ arithmetic understanding and translating verbal problems into algebraic statements relating two variables.     

高速列车轴承可靠性评估关键力学参量研究进展

轴承是高速列车牵引传动和轮轴系统的关键零部件. 受列车运行过程中电机转矩、齿轮啮合以及轮轨随机激励的影响,轴承可能发生疲劳破坏, 严重影响高速列车的行车安全.我国特有的复杂运用条件对轴承部件的疲劳性能提出了更高的要求,而轴承疲劳可靠性的基础理论和关键技术是我国轴承正向设计研发中的薄弱环节.可靠性评估方面的相关研究在解决轴承可靠性研究的瓶颈问题中起到了承上启下的关键作用.高速列车轴承可靠性评估手段与技术旨在获得使用环境中轴承可靠性评估的关键力学参量,并以此推动复杂激励下轴承疲劳可靠性理论研究. 因此,需要哪些关键力学参量并且在复杂的实际使用环境下如何去获取这些力学参量是进行高速列车轴承可靠性评估的关键所在.本文首先概述了高速列车轴承所处的复杂使用环境及运用中的主要失效模式,并据此分析了高速列车轴承可靠性评估所需的关键力学参量,强调了轴承内部滚滑行为和载荷分布在可靠性评估和轴承状态监测中的重要作用,之后从计算模型和测试技术等方面系统阐述了针对这两个关键力学参量的研究进展.最后提出了在高速列车轴承可靠性评估关键力学参量特征及测试技术研究中值得关注的若干问题.      

A cycle for validating a learning progression illustrated with an example from the concept of function

A learning progression, or learning trajectory, describes the evolution of student thinking from early conceptions to the target understanding within a particular domain. As a complex theory of development, it requires conceptual and empirical support. In earlier work, we proposed a cycle for the validation of a learning progression with four steps: 1) Theory Development, 2) Examination of Empirical Recovery, 3) Comparison to Competing Models, and 4) Evaluation of Instructional Efficacy. A group of experts met to discuss the application of learning sciences to the design, use, and validation of classroom assessment. Learning progressions, learning trajectories, and how they can support classroom assessment were the main focuses. Revisions to the cycle were suggested. We describe the adapted cycle and illustrate how the first third of it has been applied towards the validation of a learning progression for the concept of function.     

新冠疫情对我国信贷风险冲击的定量测算

文章建立了宏观经济传导模型和信贷风险传导模型,根据对GDP的估计,对新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情下的2020年全国和若干疫情严重省市的不良贷款率进行了定量测算.假设一季度内疫情得以控制,全年GDP增速下降至5.7%的情景下,预计全国年末不良贷款率约3%,不良贷款余额比2019年增加逾80%,接近2019年国内商业银行贷款损失准备金余额.如果疫情持续半年,全年GDP增速下降至5.45%的情景下,预计全国不良贷款率将达到3.37%,不良贷款余额比2019年增加逾100%,超过2019年国内商业银行贷款损失准备金余额.疫情带来巨大的潜在不良贷款增量,可能导致抗冲击能力较弱的银行出现重大信用风险.