Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

杂多酸催化合成乙酸乙酯

回流吸附法制备的负载型12-钨磷酸(HPW/C)是合成乙酸乙酯的高效催化剂。最佳反应条件下乙醇转化率达96％,酯化选择性100％。催化剂的高活性是由于HPW在活性炭上高度分散,使活性位增多,有效酸量增大。HPW/C还具有热稳定性高和不易流失等优点。     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

Estimation of multivariate binary density using orthogonal functions

In this paper, the authors studied certain properties of the estimate of Liang and Krishnaiah (1985, J. Multivariate Anal. 16, 162–172) for multivariate binary density. An alternative shrinkage estimate is also obtained. The above results are generalized to general orthonormal systems.     

四角晶相HfO2(001)表面原子和电子结构研究

采用基于第一性原理的密度泛函理论研究了四角晶相二氧化铪(t-HfO₂)体相及 其(001)表面的原子几何与电子结构.理论计算结果表明，t-HfO₂(001)表面不会 产生重构现象.与体相电子结构相比, t-HfO₂(001)表面态密度明显高于体相态 密度.其次，表面原子的态密度更靠近费米能级(E_F)，价带往低能量处移动，并 有表面态产生.计算结果表明了t-HfO₂表面禁带宽度明显低于体相的禁带宽度. t-HfO₂(001)的表面态产生以及表面禁带宽度减小是由于Hf原子与O原子的配位 数减少，表面原子周围的环境发生变化而引起的. 关键词： 密度泛函理论 2(001)')" href="#">t-HfO₂(001) 表面电子结构     

Ag+掺杂的立方相Y2O3:Eu纳米晶体粉末发光强度研究

采用化学自燃烧法制备了不同Ag⁺掺杂浓度的Y₂O₃:Eu纳米晶体粉末样品(［Y³⁺］∶［Eu³⁺］∶［Ag⁺］=99∶1∶X，X=0—3.5×10^-2)，以及通过退火处理得到了相应的体材料.根据X射线衍射谱确定所得纳米和体材料样品均为纯立方相.实验表明在纳米尺寸样品中随着Ag离子浓度的增加，荧光发射强度随之增加，当X=2×10^-2时达到最大值，其发光强度比X=0时提高了近50%.当Ag离子浓度继续增加，样品发光强度保持不变.在相应的体材料样品中则没有观察到此现象.通过对各样品的发射光谱，激发光谱，X射线衍射图谱，透射电镜(TEM)照片和荧光衰减曲线的研究，分析了引起纳米样品荧光强度变化的原因是由于Ag离子与表面悬键氧结合，从而使这一无辐射通道阻断，使发光中心Eu³⁺的量子效率提高；Ag⁺的引入所带来的另一个效应是使激发更为有效.这两方面原因使发光效率得到了提高.     

外腔反馈对半导体激光器振荡特性的影响

通过有效反射系数的引入，根据激光谐振腔的自再现条件和对腔内光子密度、载流子密度方程的求解，分析了外腔反馈对半导体激光器的阈值增益、振荡频率和输出功率等振荡特性的影响，并通过实验进行了验证.外腔反馈后，半导体激光器的阈值电流从420mA降为370mA，输出功率的斜率效率获得了提高，理论计算的输出功率曲线与实验结果符合的很好. 关键词： 半导体激光器 外腔反馈 振荡特性     

Ni(111)表面一氧化碳和氢共吸附的密度泛函理论研究

本文用密度泛函理论(DFT)的总能计算研究了一氧化碳和氢原子在Ni(111)表面上p(2×2)共吸附系统的原子结构和电子态，结果表明CO和H原子分别被吸附于两个对角p(1×1)元胞的hcp和fcc位置.以氢分子和CO分子作为能量参考点，总吸附能为2.81 eV，相应的共吸附表面功函数φ为6.28 eV.计算得到的C—O，C—Ni和H—Ni的键长分别是1.19?, 1.96?和 1.71?，并且CO分子以C原子处于hcp的谷位与金属衬底原子结合.衬底Ni(111)的最外两层的晶面间距在吸附后的相对变化分别是 关键词： Fisher-Tropsch反应 催化作用 Ni(111) p(2×2)/(CO+H) 共吸附     

Structural and thermodynamic properties of AlB2 compound

We employ a first-principles plane wave method with the relativistic analytic pseudopotential of Hartwigsen, Goedecker and Hutter (HGH) scheme in the frame of DFT to calculate the equilibrium lattice parameters and the thermodynamic properties of AlB₂ compound with hcp structure. The obtained lattice parameters are in good agreement with the available experimental data and those calculated by others. Through the quasi-harmonic Debye model, obtained successfully are the dependences of the normalized lattice parameters a/a₀ and c/c₀ on pressure P, the normalized primitive cell volume V/V₀ on pressure P, the variation of the thermal expansion α with pressure P and temperature T, as well as the Debye temperature \Theta_D and the heat capacity C_V on pressure P and temperature T.     

Second-order random wave solutions for interfacial internal waves in N-layer density-stratified fluid

This paper studies the random internal wave equations describing the density interface displacements and the velocity potentials of N-layer stratified fluid contained between two rigid walls at the top and bottom. The density interface displacements and the velocity potentials were solved to the second-order by an expansion approach used by Longuet-Higgins （1963） and Dean （1979） in the study of random surface waves and by Song （2004） in the study of second- order random wave solutions for internal waves in a two-layer fluid. The obtained results indicate that the first-order solutions are a linear superposition of many wave components with different amplitudes, wave numbers and frequencies, and that the amplitudes of first-order wave components with the same wave numbers and frequencies between the adjacent density interfaces are modulated by each other. They also show that the second-order solutions consist of two parts： the first one is the first-order solutions, and the second one is the solutions of the second-order asymptotic equations, which describe the second-order nonlinear modification and the second-order wave-wave interactions not only among the wave components on same density interfaces but also among the wave components between the adjacent density interfaces. Both the first-order and second-order solutions depend on the density and depth of each layer. It is also deduced that the results of the present work include those derived by Song （2004） for second-order random wave solutions for internal waves in a two-layer fluid as a particular case.