Modelling the effect of heterogeneous vaccination on metapopulation epidemic dynamics

Vaccination as an epidemic control strategy has a significant effect on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we propose a novel epidemic spreading model on metapopulation networks to study the impact of heterogeneous vaccination on epidemic dynamics, where nodes represent geographical areas and links connecting nodes correspond to human mobility between areas. Using a mean-field approach, we derive the theoretical spreading threshold revealing a non-trivial dependence on the heterogeneity of vaccination. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations validate the theoretical threshold and also show the complex temporal epidemic behaviours above the threshold.     

基于节点度信息的自愿免疫模型研究

疾病的广泛传播给人类带来了巨大的损失, 因此抑制疾病的传播非常重要. 本文考虑了个体接种疫苗意愿的差异性, 并结合博弈理论建立了一个基于节点度信息的自愿免疫模型. 理论解析结果证明当感染率超过某个阈值时, 该模型与忽略个体接种意愿差异性的经典模型(Zhang et al 2010 New J. Phys. 12 023015) 传播效果(感染节点数)一样. 继而考虑疫苗永久有效和有效期有限两种情况, 在Barabási-Albert网络中利用SIS传播模型对疾病的传播进程进行了数值模拟, 发现数值模拟结果与理论解析结果非常符合. 实验证明, 当感染耗费和接种疫苗耗费相同时, 该模型比忽略个体接种意愿差异性的经典模型能够更好的抑制疾病的传播, 且感染人数下降比例超过65%, 更重要的是,疫苗有效期越长本文的模型 (与忽略个体接种意愿差异性的经典模型相比)抑制疾病传播效果越好. 关键词： 疾病传播 自愿免疫 接种疫苗倾向 节点度     

Modelling of discrete-time SIS models with awareness interactions on degree-uncorrelated networks

Many epidemic models ignored the impact of awareness on epidemics in a population, though it is not the case from the real viewpoints. In this paper, a discrete-time SIS model with awareness interactions on degree-uncorrelated networks is considered. We study three kinds of awareness, including local awareness and global awareness which are originated from the epidemic-dependent information, and individual awareness which is epidemic-independent and determined by the individual information. We demonstrate analytically that awareness of the epidemic-dependent information cannot change the epidemic threshold regardless of the global or local spreading information. In contrast, epidemic-independent awareness to individual information increases the epidemic threshold in finite scale-free networks, but cannot halt the absence of epidemic threshold in an infinite scale-free network. By numerical simulations, we find that local awareness has a stronger impact on epidemic prevalence than global awareness. Our findings explore the effects of various types of awareness on epidemic spreading and address their roles in the epidemic control.     

Contagion dynamics on adaptive multiplex networks with awareness-dependent rewiring

Over the last few years, the interplay between contagion dynamics of social influences (e.g., human awareness, risk perception, and information dissemination) and biological infections has been extensively investigated within the framework of multiplex networks. The vast majority of existing multiplex network spreading models typically resort to heterogeneous mean-field approximation and microscopic Markov chain approaches. Such approaches usually manifest richer dynamical properties on multiplex networks than those on simplex networks; however, they fall short of a subtle analysis of the variations in connections between nodes of the network and fail to account for the adaptive behavioral changes among individuals in response to epidemic outbreaks. To transcend these limitations, in this paper we develop a highly integrated effective degree approach to modeling epidemic and awareness spreading processes on multiplex networks coupled with awareness-dependent adaptive rewiring. This approach keeps track of the number of nearest neighbors in each state of an individual; consequently, it allows for the integration of changes in local contacts into the multiplex network model. We derive a formula for the threshold condition of contagion outbreak. Also, we provide a lower bound for the threshold parameter to indicate the effect of adaptive rewiring. The threshold analysis is confirmed by extensive simulations. Our results show that awareness-dependent link rewiring plays an important role in enhancing the transmission threshold as well as lowering the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, it is revealed that intensified awareness diffusion in conjunction with enhanced link rewiring makes a greater contribution to disease prevention and control. In addition, the critical phenomenon is observed in the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the awareness diffusion rate, supporting the metacritical point previously reported in literature. This work may shed light on understanding of the interplay between epidemic dynamics and social contagion on adaptive networks.     

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection.     

基于元胞自动机考虑传播延迟的复杂网络病毒传播研究

基于元胞自动机,研究传播延迟对复杂网络病毒传播动力学行为的影响,提出一种新的易染状态-感染状态-易染状态(SIS)传播模型.研究表明,传播延迟的存在显著降低了网络的传播临界值,增强了网络中病毒爆发的危险性.研究还发现,随着传播延迟的增大,病毒的感染程度以及传播速率都明显增大.此外,SIS传播模型不仅能够反映病毒的平均传播趋势,而且可以描述病毒随时间的动态演化过程以及病毒的爆发和消亡等概率事件,从而有效地克服了利用平均场方法构建的微分方程模型只能反映病毒平均传播趋势的局限性.同时,还给出有效控制网络中病毒传 关键词： 复杂网络 病毒传播 元胞自动机 传播延迟     

Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.     

同时考虑传染媒介和传播延迟的复杂网络病毒传播行为研究

提出一种新的流行病传播模型,基于平均场理论,研究传染媒介和传播延迟同时存在对网络中流行病传播行为的影响.理论分析和仿真结果表明,传染媒介和传播延迟同时存在显著增强了网络中流行病爆发的危险性,并加速了流行病的传播.研究还发现,对于给定的有效传播率,均匀网络中流行病的感染程度分别与传染媒介的传染概率和传播延迟呈对数关系,无标度网络中流行病的感染程度与传染媒介的传染概率呈幂率关系,而与传播延迟之间则存在线性关系。     

复杂网络中考虑不完全免疫的病毒传播研究

复杂网络中不完全免疫包括免疫失败和免疫失效两种情况,本文研究两者同时存在对网络病毒传播行为的影响,基于平均场理论,提出一种新的传播模型.理论分析表明,免疫失败和免疫失效同时存在显著降低了网络的传播临界值,增强了病毒的感染程度.根据传播临界值与免疫节点密度、免疫成功率以及免疫失效率之间的关系,给出有效控制网络病毒传播的策略.通过数值仿真进行验证。     

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.     

Epidemic spreading with nonlinear infectivity in weighted scale-free networks

In this paper, we investigate the epidemic spreading for the SIR model in weighted scale-free networks with the nonlinear infectivity and weighted transmission rate. Concretely, we introduce the infectivity exponent α and the weight exponent β into the epidemic system, then examine the impact of α and β on the epidemic spreading. We show that one can adjust the values of α and β to rebuild a nonzero finite epidemic threshold. Furthermore, we also find the infectivity exponent α has a stronger effect not only on the epidemic threshold, but also on the epidemic prevalence. In addition, it is also interesting to see that the absence of the epidemic threshold appears not very dejected, since the prevalence grows much more slowly as the transmission rate λ increases.     

Finite size effects in epidemic spreading: the problem of overpopulated systems

In this paper we analyze the impact of network size on the dynamics of epidemic spreading. In particular, we investigate the pace of infection in overpopulated systems. In order to do that, we design a model for epidemic spreading on a finite complex network with a restriction to at most one contamination per time step, which can serve as a model for sexually transmitted diseases spreading in some student communes. Because of the highly discrete character of the process, the analysis cannot use the continuous approximation widely exploited for most models. Using a discrete approach, we investigate the epidemic threshold and the quasi-stationary distribution. The main results are two theorems about the mixing time for the process: it scales like the logarithm of the network size and it is proportional to the inverse of the distance from the epidemic threshold.     

Epidemic dynamics behavior in some bus transport networks

We abstract bus transport networks (BTNs) to complex networks using the Space P approach. First, we select three actual BTNs in three major cities in China, namely, Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. Using the SIS model, we simulate and study the epidemic spreading in the three BTNs. We obtain the density of infected vertices varying with time and the stationary density of infected vertices varying with infection rate. Second, we simulate and study the epidemic spreading in a recently introduced BTN evolution model, the network properties of which correspond well with those of actual BTNs. Third, we use mean-field theory to analyze the epidemic dynamics behavior of the BTN evolution model and obtain the theoretical epidemic threshold of this model. The theoretical value agrees well with the simulation results. Based on the work in this paper, we provide the following possible forecasts for epidemic dynamics in actual BTNs. An actual BTN should have a finite positive epidemic threshold. If the effective infection rate is above this threshold, the epidemic spread in the network and the density of infected vertices finally stabilizes in a balanced state. Below this threshold, the number of infected vertices decays exponentially fast and the epidemic cannot spread on a large scale.     

Dynamical diversity induced by individual responsive immunization

A voluntary vaccination allows for a healthy individual to choose vaccination according to the individual’s local information. Hence, vaccination has the potential to provide a complex negative feedback (non-infection decreases propensity for vaccination, hence increasing infection and vice versa). In this paper, we investigate a kind of SIS epidemic model with a deterministic and voluntary vaccination scheme in scale-free networks. We first study a threshold model with no historical information. By using the comparative method we confirm that under some conditions there exist two critical values of infection rates to determine three kinds of epidemic dynamical behaviors: the epidemic spread, the asymptotical decay and the exponential decay. Furthermore, a mean-field approximation model can predict the maximal infection level but cannot predict the existence of two critical infection rates. In numerical simulations, we observe a maximum in epidemic duration as a function of the model parameter. A similar phenomenon has been found in the model with historical information. Finally, we study a degree-weighted model with a nonnegative exponent α$\alpha$ where α=0$\alpha =0$ corresponds to the threshold model. We find that at the steady state the infection density increases with α$\alpha$, while the variation of the vaccination fraction is less straightforward.     

A dynamic epidemic control model on uncorrelated complex networks

In this paper, a dynamic epidemic control model on the uncorrelated complex networks is proposed. By means of theoretical analysis, we found that the new model has a similar epidemic threshold as that of the susceptible-infectedrecovered （SIR） model on the above networks, but it can reduce the prevalence of the infected individuals remarkably. This result may help us understand epidemic spreading phenomena on real networks and design appropriate strategies to control infections.     

Statistical model for the effects of phase and momentum randomization on electron transport

In this paper, the study of epidemic spreading of mobile individuals on networks focuses on the system in which each node of the network may be occupied by either one individual or a void, and each individual could move to a neighbour void node. It is found that for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model, the diffusion increases the epidemic threshold for arbitrary heterogeneous networks having the degree fluctuations, and the diffusion doesn??t affect the epidemic threshold for regular random networks. In the SI model, the diffusion suppresses the epidemic spread at the early outbreak stage, which indicates that the growth time scale of outbreaks is monotonically increasing with diffusion rate d. The heterogeneous mean-field analysis is in good agreement with the numerical simulations on annealed networks.     

Hybrid phase transitions of spreading dynamics in multiplex networks

In this paper, we study the spreading dynamics of social behaviors and focus on heterogenous responses of individuals depending on whether they realize the spreading or not. We model the system with a two-layer multiplex network, in which one layer describes the spreading of social behaviors and the other layer describes the diffusion of the awareness about the spreading. We use the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model to describe the dynamics of an individual if it is unaware of the spreading of the behavior. While when an individual is aware of the spreading of the social behavior its dynamics will follow the threshold model, in which an individual will adopt a behavior only when the fraction of its neighbors who have adopted the behavior is above a certain threshold. We find that such heterogenous reactions can induce intriguing dynamical properties. The dynamics of the whole network may exhibit hybrid phase transitions with the coexistence of continuous phase transition and bi-stable states. Detailed study of how the diffusion of the awareness influences the spreading dynamics of social behavior is provided. The results are supported by theoretical analysis.     

Modular Epidemic Spreading in Small-World Networks

We study the epidemic spreading of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on small-world networks with modular structure. It is found that the epidemic threshold increases linearly with the modular strength. Furthermore, the modular structure may influence the infected density in the steady state and the spreading velocity at the beginning of propagation. Practically, the propagation can be hindered by strengthening the modular structure in the view of network topology. In addition, to reduce the probability of reconnection between modules may also help to control the propagation.     

Epidemic prevalence on random mobile dynamical networks: individual heterogeneity and correlation

In this paper, we extend the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological model on a random dynamical network composed of mobile individuals, in which the infection is caused by the collisions between susceptible and infected individuals at the spreading rate proportional to their susceptibilities and infectivities. We analytically study the criticality of spreading dynamics under different distributions of individual susceptibility and infectivity, and numerically verify the cases of power-law and (or) Gaussian distributions. Our findings show that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity increases the epidemic threshold, and the positive correlation of individual susceptibility and infectivity avails to the epidemic prevalence.     

基于交通流量的病毒扩散动力学研究

不同于经典扩散模型中节点传染力等同于节点度k的假定, 基于交通流量的病毒扩散模型中, 各个节点的传染力可以等同于节点实际介数b_k. 利用平均场近似方法, 提出基于交通流量SIS病毒修正扩散模型. 根据修正SIS模型, 以最小搜索信息路由为例, 重新研究病毒传播率β, 平均发包率λ同传播阈值β_c, 平稳状态病毒密度ρ之间的关系. 理论分析与实验结果均表明, 当网络拓扑和路由策略一定时, 传播阈值β_c为实际介数b_k的均值<b_k>与其平方的均值<b_k²>的比值. 而稳定状态时感染密度ρ同感染同病毒传播率β, 平均发包率λ 以及λ =1时节点实际介数的均值<b_λ=1> 的乘积倒数存在幂率关系.