基于小波变换和改进萤火虫算法优化极限学习机的短期负荷预测

提出了一种基于小波变换和改进萤火虫优化极限学习机的短期负荷预测方法.通过小波分解和重构,对原始负荷序列进行降噪;在模型训练阶段利用改进的萤火虫算法优化极限学习机参数,获得各序列的最优模型;针对各子序列分别预测叠加得到最终预测值.通过在两种时间尺度的数据序列上进行数值计算,与传统的ARMA、BP神经网络、支持向量机及LSSVM等多种经典预测模型相比,模型预测效果更优.     

一种基于CS-FCM算法的模糊时间序列预测模型

为了发挥模糊理论在不确定性预测中的优势并保留模糊时间序列(FTS)预测模型的可解释性,本文针对目前应用广泛的模糊C均值聚类(FCM)算法进行改进,提出了一种基于布谷鸟搜索的FCM (CS-FCM)算法.将CS-FCM算法用于模糊时间序列模型的非均匀论域划分与数据的模糊化处理,建立一种基于CS-FCM算法的模糊时间序列预测模型.该算法可实现聚类中心的全局寻优,降低传统FCM算法易陷入局部极小值带来的误差,提高模型预测精度.实证分析结果表明, CS-FCM算法的适应度优于FCM算法,本文模型的预测误差小于经典模糊时间序列预测模型,验证了新预测模型的有效性.     

基于遗传算法和半参数回归的神经网络集成股市预测研究

股票时间序列预测在经济和管理领域具有重要的应用前景,也是很多商业和金融机构成功的基础.首先利用奇异谱分析对股市时间序列重构,降低噪声并提取趋势序列.再利用C-C算法确定股市时间序列的嵌入维数和延迟阶数,对股市时间序列进行相空间重构,生成神经网络的学习矩阵.进一步利用Boosting技术和不同的神经网络模型,生成神经网络集成个体.最后采用带有惩罚项的半参数回归模型进行集成,并利用遗传算法选择最优的光滑参数,以此建立遗传算法和半参数回归的神经网络集成股市预测模型.通过上证指数开盘价进行实例分析,与传统的时间序列分析和其他集成方法对比,发现该方法能获得更准确的预测结果.计算结果表明该方法能充分反映股票价格时间序列趋势,为金融时间序列预测提供一个有效方法.     

正交尺度小波网络及在非线性经济系统预测中的应用

本文提出一种用正交尺度函数代替RBF网络中的激活函数的小波网络，给出相应小波网络学习算法；并以天津市国内生产总值为样本进行宏观经济模拟预测，预测结果表明该模型预测误差低于普通BP网络。     

混沌时间序列的2阶预测模型

为了克服传统预测方法对混沌时间序列预测精度不高的缺点,提出一种新的基于1阶预测模型(1-OP)和信息融合理论的混沌时间序列2阶预测模型(2-OP).首先根据相空间重构理论建立2个1阶预测模型,然后根据融合估计原理建立2阶预测模型.最后利用Lorenz和Mackey-Glass时间序列对该模型进行验证,结果表明,2阶预测模型对多变量和单变量混沌系统都是有效的.     

二型模糊小波脑情感学习网络在非线性系统辨识中的研究

针对现有模糊神经网络在辨识具有时变的非线性系统存在辨识精度不高,收敛速度较慢等缺点,提出了一种二型小波模糊脑情感学习网络(T2FWBELN)模型,它结合了模糊逻辑和脑情感学习网络的优点,并在网络结构中使用了小波函数。与其他算法相比,该算法在非线性系统辨识中有着更高的逼近能力。同时,采用模糊C均值算法生成模糊规则,并使用梯度下降法对T2FWBELN的各种参数进行在线调整,降低了参数调整时间。为了进一步验证该模型的有效性和优越性,仿真了两个不确定非线性系统辨识的例子,一个是Mackey-Glass时间序列预测,一个是带有噪声的动态系统辨识。测试结果表明,所提出的模型在处理非线性系统辨识中拥有更高的精度。     

小波分析在经济预测模型中的应用

经济信号也是一种时间序列 ,它和小波分析中的信号具有相同的特性 .因此 ,可将经济时间序列看成经济信号 ,应用小波进行实际经济分析和预测 .论文针对最小二乘法的不足 ,提出了多分辨回归分析处理经济数据分析的方法 .本文在建立宏观模型时 ,利用小波分析对经济数据进行预处理 ,获得能反映宏观变化趋势的低频信息 ,再用最小二乘法进行拟合和预测 ,通过对传统最小二乘法建立的模型的对比分析 ,结果表明 :本方法优于一般最小二乘法 .     

基于多元混沌时间序列的油田产量预测模型

油田产量的预测一直是石油工作者研究的重要课题.针对油田产油量、产水量、地层压力和时间之间有着混沌的特征,利用多变量混沌时间序列等方法研究了油田产量的混沌建模和预测问题.用C-C算法确定每一个变量的嵌入维数和延迟时间,重构多元混沌时间序列的相空间;使用基于奇异值分解的主成分分析消除重构相空间的冗余变量和噪声干扰,建立了有较好泛化性能的多元混沌时间序列油田产量预测模型;最后将混沌时间序列预测和Elman神经网络进行耦合,创建了基于主成分分析前馈网络的多元混沌时间序列油田产量预测方法.应研究表明,提出的多变量混沌时间序列预测方法的预测精确度优于单变量预测,它可用于解决具有多变量混沌时间序列的预测问题.     

一种新的振荡型DGPM(1,N|sin)模型及其应用

针对传统多变量灰色模型未能有效预测振荡序列的问题,提出一种新的振荡型DGPM(1,N|sin)模型.首先,将非线性时间周期项和时变参数引入离散灰色预测模型;然后,建立非线性规划模型,利用遗传算法确定最优参数;最后,将该模型应用于中国消费价格指数的预测中,验证了本文模型的有效性和适用性.结果显示,振荡型DGPM(1,N|sin)模型有较高的预测精度,为振荡序列的预测提供了有效方法.     

基于非等时距加权灰色模型与神经网络的组合预测算法

非等时距预测算法在不等时间间隔序列的趋势分析与预测方面具有重要作用．在传统灰色预测理论的基础上,提出一种基于非等时距加权灰色模型和神经网络的组合预测算法．通过构建非等时距加权灰色预测模型,将原始数据序列的平均值作为累加序列初值,将连续累积函数的积分面积作为背景值,对累加序列进行加权处理,以真实反映时间序列发展对预测结果的影响．在此基础上,引入BP神经网络对灰色预测的残差序列进行修正,进一步提高了预测精度．经算例验证,该算法预测精度达到1级,且高于类似算法．     

基于非线性混沌时序动力系统的预测方法研究

主要研究由混沌时序所确定的非线性动力系统的预测方法．研究了非线性自相关混沌模型的结构,模型阶数的确立技术．将神经网络和小波理论相结合,研究了小波变换神经网络的结构,给出了小波神经网络的学习方法;提出了一种新的基于小波网络的参数辨识方法．该方法可以有选择地提取时序中的不同的时间、频率尺度,实现原时序的趋势或细节预测．通过对混沌时序进行预处理,并比较预处理后的预测结果,得到了一些有益的结果:用非线性自相关混沌模型采用小波网络对模型参数进行辨识,其辨识的准确程度较高,用该模型对混沌时序(包括含有噪声)的预测比较有效．     

Using Wavelets for the Detection of Discrete Events in Time Series of Hybrid Systems

This contribution deals with the use of wavelets for the analysis of time series of systems which are hybrid in the sense that they contain discrete and continuous dynamics. We focus on the detection of discrete events which is an important step in the identification of hybrid systems. A brief overview of the characteristics of the wavelet transform is given, which shows that the wavelet transform is an appropriate method for the analysis of time series of hybrid systems. By the combination of two wavelet-based analysis techniques, a two-step procedure is obtained which allows the detection of switching points in the presence of weak noise. In this context, emphasis is given to the problems which arise when the theoretical results are used to detect discrete events in real time series. The procedure is demonstrated for a time series obtained from the simulation of a nonlinear laboratory plant.     

A new approach to fuzzy wavelet system modeling

In this paper, we propose simple but effective two different fuzzy wavelet networks (FWNs) for system identification. The FWNs combine the traditional Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy model and discrete wavelet transforms (DWT). The proposed FWNs consist of a set of if–then rules and, then parts are series expansion in terms of wavelets functions. In the first system, while the only one scale parameter is changing with it corresponding rule number, translation parameter sets are fixed in each rule. As for the second system, DWT is used completely by using wavelet frames. The performance of proposed fuzzy models is illustrated by examples and compared with previously published examples. Simulation results indicate the remarkable capabilities of the proposed methods. It is worth noting that the second FWN achieves high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence.     

Gauss小波变换像空间的描述

在连续小波变换像空间是再生核Hilbert空间的基础上,针对经常用于边界检测并且使用效果非常好的Gauss小波,给出了其小波变换像空间的再生核具体表达式.并且当固定尺度因子和固定平移因子时,利用再生核空间理论,对Gauss小波变换像空间做了具体描述,分别给出了Gauss小波变换像空间中的等距恒等式和反演公式,这为进一步研究一般的小波变换像空间提供了理论基础.     

A new approach to fuzzy wavelet system modeling

In this paper, we propose simple but effective two different fuzzy wavelet networks (FWNs) for system identification. The FWNs combine the traditional Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy model and discrete wavelet transforms (DWT). The proposed FWNs consist of a set of if–then rules and, then parts are series expansion in terms of wavelets functions. In the first system, while the only one scale parameter is changing with it corresponding rule number, translation parameter sets are fixed in each rule. As for the second system, DWT is used completely by using wavelet frames. The performance of proposed fuzzy models is illustrated by examples and compared with previously published examples. Simulation results indicate the remarkable capabilities of the proposed methods. It is worth noting that the second FWN achieves high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence.     

Robust μ-stability analysis of Markovian switching uncertain stochastic genetic regulatory networks with unbounded time-varying delays

This paper investigates the global robust stability problem of Markovian switching uncertain stochastic genetic regulatory networks with unbounded time-varying delays and norm bounded parameter uncertainties. The structure variations at discrete time instances during the process of gene regulations known as hybrid genetic regulatory networks based on Markov process is proposed. The jumping parameters considered here are generated from a continuous-time discrete-state homogeneous Markov process, which are governed by a Markov process with discrete and finite state space. The concept of global robust μ-stability in the mean square for genetic regulatory networks is given. Based on Lyapunov function, stochastic theory and Itô’s differential formula, the stability criteria are presented in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the main result.     

ON THE DEGREE OF APPROXIMATION BY WAVELET EXPANSIONS

In this paper we estimate the degree of approximation of wavelet expansions. Our result shows that the degree has the exponential decay for function f(x) ∈ L2 continuous in a finite interval (a,b) which is much superior to those of approximation by polynomial operators and by expansions of classical orthogonal series.     

Inducing normality from non‐Gaussian long memory time series and its application to stock return data

Motivated by Lee and Ko (Appl. Stochastic Models. Bus. Ind. 2007; 23 :493–502) but not limited to the study, this paper proposes a wavelet‐based Bayesian power transformation procedure through the well‐known Box–Cox transformation to induce normality from non‐Gaussian long memory processes. We consider power transformations of non‐Gaussian long memory time series under the assumption of an unknown transformation parameter, a situation that arises commonly in practice, while most research has been devoted to non‐linear transformations of Gaussian long memory time series with known transformation parameter. Specially, this study is mainly focused on the simultaneous estimation of the transformation parameter and long memory parameter. To this end, posterior estimations via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are performed in the wavelet domain. Performances are assessed on a simulation study and a German stock return data set. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robust Wavelet-Domain Estimation of the Fractional Difference Parameter in Heavy-Tailed Time Series: An Empirical Study

We investigate the performance of several wavelet-based estimators of the fractional difference parameter. We consider situations where, in addition to long-range dependence, the time series exhibit heavy tails and are perturbed by polynomial and change-point trends. We make detailed study of a wavelet-domain pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), for which we provide an asymptotic and finite-sample justification. Using numerical experiments, we show that unlike the traditional time-domain estimators, estimators based on the wavelet transform are robust to additive trends and change points in mean, and produce accurate estimates even under significant departures from normality. The Wavelet-domain MLE appears to dominate a regression-based wavelet estimator in terms of smaller root mean squared error. These findings are derived from a simulation study and application to computer traffic traces.     

Bayesian selection of primary resolution and wavelet basis functions for wavelet regression

This paper considers a Bayesian approach to selecting a primary resolution and wavelet basis functions. Most of papers on wavelet shrinkage have been focused on thresholding of wavelet coefficients, given a primary resolution which is usually determined by the sample size. However, it turns out that a proper primary resolution is much affected by the shape of an unknown function rather than by the sample size. In particular, Bayesian approaches to wavelet series suffer from computational burdens if the chosen primary resolution is too high. A surplus primary resolution may result in a poor estimate. In this paper, we propose a simple Bayesian method to determine a primary resolution and wavelet basis functions independently of the sample size. Results from a simulation study demonstrate the promising empirical properties of the proposed approach.