一个基于可持续发展的环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论解释

以Lucas内生增长模型为基础，通过建立一个新的内生增长模型，在经济可持续发展的前提下，分析环境质量与经济增长之间的关系，为环境库兹涅茨曲线提供了一个新的理论解释。模型提出了经济可持续发展的条件，为有关环境保护决策提供理论支持。     

考虑隐性股权的电商供应链融资模式研究

摘要:研究隐性股权下,电商参与的供应链金融系统中,具有资金约束的制造商对银行和电商平台两种融资模式的选择。构建了以电商平台为核心企业,具有资金约束的上游制造商参与的两级供应链融资模型,并运用股利贴现模型(DDM)对隐性股权进行量化,结合Stackelberg博弈分别对两种融资模式下的制造商和电商平台的收益进行分析。研究表明,银行利率是影响制造商融资模式选择的主要因素;并且得出,具有资金约束的制造商选择向银行融资时,电商平台是否考虑隐性股权对其自身收益不会产生影响;具有资金约束的制造商选择向电商平台融资时,电商平台在考虑隐性股权的情形下其收益更优。     

稳健交通均衡模型的SDP松弛

交通均衡问题在城市交通管理中具有重要意义.研究均衡交通的目的是通过对稳定交通流进行量化分析、,为决策者提供交通规划及管理的依据.Wardrop交通均衡原理是描述交通均衡问题的基石,本文在其扩展之一的稳健Wardrop(Robust Wardrop,简记为RW)互补均衡模型的基础上,将不确定因素的盒子约束改进为球约束,以改善原有模型的保守度.其次给出带有不确定因素的稳健Wardrop极小化形式及其确定性稳健对应模型(Robust Counterpart,简记为RC).最后通过SDP松弛手段将稳健对应模型(RC)松弛为容易的线性半定规划问题进行求解,并给出实例说明,为不确定因素影响下的交通均衡问题提供了一种新的有效模型及解法.     

区域技术创新系统评估体系的研究

技术创新对提升企业竞争力、提高综合国力、促进经济增长和国家持续发展非常重要。本在研究了区域经济发展和国家创新系统的相关献基础上，建立了系统、量化的区域技术创新系统评估指标体系，提出了决定区域创新系统技术创新能力的主要因素，并用TOPSIS方法对指标的量化进行了尝试。     

基于GA的一类Fuzzy资源非线性规划问题的模型

本文建立了一类连续型Ｆｕｚｚｙ资源约束非线性规划问题的模型ＦＲＮＬＰ。基于ｆｕｚｚｙ最优解集和最优决策集，提出了求解ＦＲＮＬＰ模型的精确最优解和满意解的方法，最后研究并讨论了具有惩罚因子的ｆｕｚｚｙ资源约束非线性规划问题，并针对一个实例进行了分析。     

基于机会约束的公交调度研究

利用机会约束规划研究公交调度问题 ,考虑了公交走行时间的不确定性、乘客需求的不确定性、以及乘客等待时间约束等影响因素 ,据此建立在一定的置信水平下企业利益最大化模型 ,利用基于随机模拟的遗传算法进行求解 ,并通过实验算例说明模型的可行性 ,最后通过研究模型参数的敏感性 ,分析模型的参数对最优解的影响 .     

检验值最小剔除原理在建立小麦单产模型中的应用

本利用-检验值的最小剔除原理，建立了小麦的单产模型，由此给出了小样本、多因素条件下进行主因素分析和建立多元回归方程实现控制及预测的一个可行方法。     

分散搜索算法求解复杂产品协同优化分配问题

研究了网络化制造环境下复杂产品的协同优化分配问题.考虑网络联盟企业的生产能力约束和复杂产品的交货期约束,加入满足装配要求的公差约束,以最大化公差和最小化制造费用、运输费用以及质量损失费用为目标,建立了该问题的两阶段数学规划模型.结合问题解的特点,把两阶段模型整合成一个非线性混合整数规划模型,提出了针对问题特点的分散搜索算法.该算法采用启发式方法随机产生初始解,开发了适合问题特点的子集产生、合并和改进以及参考集更新等多种改进机制实现对该问题的有效求解.对小规模实例进行分析,验证了加入公差约束的必要性,同时仿真分析了15组不同规模的实例,与遗传算法的结果进行比较,验证了该模型与算法的合理性和有效性.     

基于VC谈判力的内生投资模型

近来,对风险投资的研究大都是从信息不对称、控制权的私有收益的角度出发,并且把首次投资水平看成是外生决定的变量.把其内生化并从谈判力的视角出发建立了一个两期信号博弈模型.通过模型分析,①得到了影响首次投资水平的关键因素:投资双方的谈判力、双方信息不对称以及事后不确定性程度;②对相关因素进行了量化分析,并讨论了投资双方谈判力的分配问题.     

基于灰色关联分析的航空装备技术保障能力评价模型

航空装备技术保障能力是组成航空兵战斗力的基本要素之一,其能力的高低直接影响到航空装备保障任务完成质量的优劣,因此对航空装备技术保障能力进行科学评价具有重要意义.在现有研究的基础上建立了航空装备技术保障能力评价指标体系,基于灰色关联分析方法提出了指标权重的确定方法,并利用灰色关联分析思想构建出航空装备技术保障能力评价模型,为航空装备技术保障能力评价提供量化分析模型,拓展了航空装备技术保障能力评价模型体系.     

Semi-dynamic modelling of heterogeneous land combat

We propose a semi-dynamic approach to tactical level land combat modelling from the attacker's viewpoint. Our approach decomposes a battle between heterogeneous forces into stages and mini battles. For each mini battle in a stage, we use three models: a mathematical programming model for optimizing force allocations, a Lanchester simulation model for predicting whether or not the stage targets are reached under the allocations, and a model for weapon effectiveness update from one stage to the next. These models interact with each other within the framework of a decision support system to help the user with allocation decisions as well as prediction of force requirements to win the battle.     

An analytical model for close combat dynamics

A coherent dynamic combat model is developed from basic principles. The governing set of equations has a striking resemblance to the continuity equation in fluid dynamics with an additional term for the losses of combat units. The salient features of the model are a moving battle front, the replenishment of losses, and the withdrawal of combat units while others are still engaged. A basic example shows that the often used force ratio of three can produce a frontline movement up to 90% of the speed of the attacker. Another example simulates a well documented battle from the American Civil War. It is shown that terrain influences and the absence of reconnaissance had a large adverse effect on the outcome of the battle for the Confederate forces.     

航空装备战斗损伤概率预测模型研究

装备战场抢修是保持和恢复装备战斗力的重要因素.预测并准确掌握航空装备的损伤概率,有利于作战指挥员和装备保障人员适时而准确的指导战场抢修任务的完成,以保证航空装备的持续作战能力.通过分析航空装备的战伤原因,运用概率分析法构建了航空装备战斗损伤概率预测模型,并提出了模型的改进建议.     

Force Deployment in a Conventional Theatre-level Military Engagement

This paper is concerned with the study of force deployment in a conventional theatre-level military engagement. First, it discusses some of the governing parameters that affect the modelling. A non-linear programming model is then developed to describe the combat dynamics. Sensitivity analysis on the optimal solution is also discussed. The merit of the model is demonstrated by applying the formulation to study the effect of various sustainment policies on the outcome of a battle.     

Sizing initial stockpiles in a conventional military retrograde movement

The importance of stockpiles in waging and supporting war has long been recognized by the military. However, despite this recognition, very few theoretical attempts have been undertaken to incorporate stockpile considerations in land combat models. This paper describes a multicriteria optimization model to estimate the minimum stockpile required to sustain fighting a conventional mobile delaying land battle. By studying the post-optimality analysis, valuable insights on the relationships between the key governing parameters can be established.     

The Effect of Combat Degradation on the Urban Battle

This paper reviews data on urban combat in the light of an earlier published assessment of degradation in the rural battle. It compares and contrasts data from two sources: historical analysis of real combat, and field trials of simulated urban battles. Similarities to the rural study are examined and extra effects, due to surrender and to combat experience, are discussed. The resulting, somewhat surprising, effects of preferred posture and on the value of training are discussed.     

满意度最大条件下的战时保障补给站选址问题研究

设施选址是装备保障系统构建过程中的重要决策步骤。文章首先分析了现代战争中装备保障设施尤其是终端补给站选址问题对形成装备保障快速反应能力的重要性,提出了以作战区域内所有作战单位的保障满意度最大为目标的有限补给站选址优化模型,作战单位对选址方案的保障满意度是从所需的资源数量和保障反应及时性两个方面进行考虑的。之后基于拉格朗日松弛算法设计了模型的启发式求解算法,实验结果表明该算法有效。     

基于模糊方法的陆军作战部队战斗力二级综合评判模型

在分析信息化条件下陆军作战部队战斗力构成要素,以及研究信息在战斗力生成中重要性的基础上,构建了评价陆军作战部队战斗力水平的二级评判指标体系.针对以往战斗力评判方法存在的不足,提出基于AHP法和模糊方法的评判模型,并给出了评价过程.最后对某陆军作战部队的战斗力水平进行实例分析,实证表明,方法克服了以往战斗力评价中主观因素影响大、定性与定量分析结合不够合理等问题,使战斗力评判更加科学.     

The effects of splitting exponential stochastic Lanchester battles

The Exponential Stochastic Lanchester (ESL) model of attrition is well known and can be found in many combat models. This paper is concerned with exploring the effects of applying the ESL attrition model to battles which have been split into different arrangements of smaller engagements or fire fights. These fire fights were mainly resolved using a Markov chain formulation of the ESL model. Some interesting and non-intuitive trends were uncovered. It is shown that the ESL model predicts an increasing advantage for the defending side as a battle is split into a larger number of smaller parallel engagements.     

APPLICATION OF LANCHESTER COMBAT MODEL IN THE ARDENNES CAMPAIGN

Since the appearance of F.W. Lanchester's pioneering development of combat models (Lanchester [1916]) during the first World War, his work has been extensively modified to represent a variety of competitions, ranging from isolated battles to entire wars. A great deal of attention has been devoted to applying such models to actual battle situations (Engel [1954], Hueter [1978], Bracken [1995]). The consideration is to focus on the validity of various Lanchesterian models, i.e., to show that there exist models which do indeed fit the data of actual confrontations (Coleman [1983]). The objective of the present paper is to use the “classical” Lanchester combat model for two reinforced armies having homogeneous, linear nonbattle loss rates, with specific application to the Ardennes campaign of World War II (December 15, 1944–January 16, 1945). We observe that the fit is remarkably good. Moreover, using data from the early phases of the encounter, we also found that there is certain agreement between the predicted and actual force strengths of the latter stages of the battle.