共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 147 毫秒
1.
首先运用主成分分析方法对北京市经济指标数据进行降维处理,然后基于降维后的数据拟合部分线性模型.将拟合后的模型对2008年北京市税收进行预测,所得结果优于常用的逐步线性回归分析方法的预测结果. 相似文献
2.
3.
4.
基于时间序列法的国税月度收入预测模型研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
研究了基于时间序列方法的国税月度收入预测. 通过采用Box-Jenkins的ARIMA模型, 结合国税月度收入数据, 分析并提出了一套针对月度税收收入的预测研究框架, 包括对税收预测模型的拟合、检验、预测、评价、动态修正等主要环节的处理方法. 在该研究框架的指导下, 以增值税、海关代征税和营业税为例, 对2006年各月的税收收入进行了模拟预测, 月度税收收入预测的平均相对误差分别控制在5.47\%, 8.63\%和2.37\%. 最后给出了在实际应用中动态修正税收预测模型的建议, 并简要讨论了时间序列方法在税收预测中面临的问题. 相似文献
5.
本文首先针对散乱数据拟合的Shepard方法,结合截断多项式、B样条基函数和指数函数来构造其权函数,使新的权函数具有更高的光滑度和更好的衰减性,并且其光滑性和衰减性可以根据实际需要自由调节,从而提高了曲面的拟合质量.同时还给出一种类似的局部插值方法.另外,本文还基于多重二次插值,结合多元样条的思想,给出了两个局部插值算法.该算法较好地继承了多重二次插值曲面的性质,从而保证了拟合曲面具有好地光顺性和拟合精度.曲面整体也具有较高的光滑性. 相似文献
6.
数据拟合就是设法用一个函数(表达式)去描述收集到的一组数据.做数据拟合一般是希望找出数据里的某种规律性;或者为了从一组实测数据中得到有关数学模型的参数.拟合得到的结果可以在将来用于预测某些未知情况下的可能性. 相似文献
7.
关于一维删截数据的拟合优度检验,已有相当多的文献,但高维截尾数据的拟合优度检验尚不多见.本文用PP技巧讨论了高维截尾数据的拟合优度检验,得到了检验统计量的渐近分布,并讨论了其Bootstrap逼近及逼近的相容性和检验的渐近功效. 相似文献
8.
9.
10.
税务工作是财经工作的重要组成部分,税收是理财.理财离不开计算,而计算又离不开珠算,因此.珠算是税务干部职业技能中不可缺少的学科之一。十几年来我们一直加强珠协工作的领导,使珠算在税收工作中发挥了重要作用。 相似文献
11.
P. A. Vasina 《Computational Mathematics and Modeling》2003,14(3):309-318
A mathematical model of tax enforcement is analyzed for the case when the probability of detecting tax evasion depends on the inspector's efforts. Contrary to the case with fixed inspection costs, the optimal tax enforcement strategy does not fully eliminate tax evasion. We examine how tax payers' random mistakes and the inspectors' corruptibility affect the optimal tax enforcement mechanism. We show that, contrary to the model with fixed inspection costs, corruption among inspectors reduces the optimal tax revenue. 相似文献
12.
We introduce two models of taxation, the latent and natural tax processes, which have both been used to represent loss-carry-forward taxation on the capital of an insurance company. In the natural tax process, the tax rate is a function of the current level of capital, whereas in the latent tax process, the tax rate is a function of the capital that would have resulted if no tax had been paid. Whereas up to now these two types of tax processes have been treated separately, we show that, in fact, they are essentially equivalent. This allows a unified treatment, translating results from one model to the other. Significantly, we solve the question of existence and uniqueness for the natural tax process, which is defined via an integral equation. Our results clarify the existing literature on processes with tax. 相似文献
13.
14.
基于“公司+农户”型订单农业背景,引入“随行就市,保底收购”的合约价格方式并考虑农产品流通中的数量损耗,探究了政府向公司征税并将税收收入补贴给农户对于订单农业供应链决策及运作的影响。首先,在政府对农户的补贴系数外生时,以政府征税不补贴为基准模型,对比分析了政府征税不补贴和征税补贴两种情形下的均衡结果,发现:若公司对农产品深加工,则进项税率小于销项税率,政府对农户进行税收补贴,可激励农户提高生产量并促使公司降低保底价格,进而增加双方期望收益,即征税补贴是征税不补贴的帕累托改善;若公司对农产品初加工,进项税率等于销项税率,则税收补贴带来的收益全部被公司利用其强势地位所攫取,单纯的税收补贴难以实现农户增产增收的目的。随后,在政府补贴系数内生时,证明了深加工情形下存在唯一最优的税收补贴系数使得政府社会福利最大化,且最优的税收补贴系数随各参数的变化存在上下界。最后,引入数值算例验证了上述结论,同时发现,深加工情形下政府决策的最优税收补贴系数随流通损耗率的增加而减小,随销项税率和供应链边际利润率的增大而增大;社会福利和公司的期望收益对流通损耗率的变化较之农户的期望收益对其变化更为敏感。 相似文献
15.
根据我国现行的税法,个人所得税纳税采用九级累进税率.年工资和年终奖在速算扣除数个数上存在不同,使得对于相同的税前年收入,如果采用不同的年工资和年终奖分配方案会产生不同的税后实际所得.通过简化变量和缩小有效解区域,以及一系列严格的数学推导,得到了任意年收入下,月工资和年终奖的最优分配方案,使得在现有税制下,纳税额最小,税后收入最大.这个最优方案避免了税金负效应现象,保证了纳税公平性,有利于国家税务监管,企业员工薪金分配和个人纳税筹划;具有广阔的应用前景. 相似文献
16.
宏观税负与经济增长关系的影响分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
本文讨论了近些年来我国宏观税负的发展态势,就最优税负问题进行了理论探讨,并运用时间序列模型等,讨论了税负与经济增长的影响关系,及行业、地区间的税负差异问题。 相似文献
17.
This paper considers tax evasion with morality and its implication for equity of the tax system. In the standard model of tax evasion without moral costs, higher-income taxpayers evade more, relative to their incomes, than lower-income taxpayers, and evasion makes the tax system regressive. With moral costs, equity of the tax system depends on the degree of morality. As the level of morality in society increases, it increases moral costs of evasion and evasion become inferior. Higher-income taxpayers evade less and pay more taxes, and evasion makes the tax system progressive for a high level of morality. The opposite holds true and evasion makes the tax system regressive for a low level of morality. 相似文献
18.
Given a settled reduction in the present level of tax revenue, and by exploring a very large combinatorial space of tax structures, in this paper we employ a genetic algorithm in order to determine the ‘best’ structure of a real world personal income tax that allows for the maximisation of the redistributive effect of the tax, while preventing all taxpayers being worse off than with the present tax structure. We take Italy as a case study. 相似文献
19.
Jean-Franois Renaud 《Insurance: Mathematics and Economics》2009,45(2):242-246
We study the distribution of tax payments in the model of Kyprianou and Zhou [Kyprianou, A.E., Zhou, X., 2009. General tax structures and the Lévy insurance risk model. J. Appl. Probab. (in press)], that is a Lévy insurance risk model with a surplus-dependent tax rate. More precisely, after a short discussion on the so-called tax identity, we derive a recursive formula for arbitrary moments of the discounted tax payments until ruin and we identify the distribution of the tax payments when there is no force of interest. 相似文献