二维圆盘传递装置药物非线性扩散的优化控制模型及算法

本文首先给出了二维圆盘传递装置在极坐标下的药物非线性扩散最优控制模型.然后,用基于迭代法的最小二乘方法求解模型的非线性扩散方程,并估计相应的扩散系数.最后,通过一个数值算例,验证该控制模型和算法在二维圆盘传递装置中是有效的.     

我国食品卫生安全风险评估模型

食品卫生安全关系到国计民生,建立适合于我国的食品卫生安全保障体系尤为重要.人群食物摄入量模型用"对数正态分布"估计食物摄入量分布,在对国家依据气候、地理、经济等因素进行地域划分的基础上提出了能够保证小样本空间条件下采样均匀的"层次化样本分配模型"用于采样点的选取和各采样点样本数量的分配;污染物分布模型用"贝塔分布"估计食物中的污染物分布,并采用样本在时间轴上平移的方法解决了数据在时间上的不完整性问题;风险评估模型基于人群食物摄入量和食物污染物分布模型,提出"矩元法"对污染物摄入量进行评估,并给出了模型数值化求解和右分位点确定的相关算法.实验表明,风险评估模型所确定的右分位点能有效地反映当前食品卫生安全状况.     

基于系统动力学的城市道路交通污染控制问题研究

城市交通污染是我国城市化发展进程中亟待解决的问题,问题涉及变量多且结构复杂,很难用数学模型进行全面描述.为了综合考虑城市交通污染气体排放的影响因素及其相关关系,从系统的角度出发应用系统动力学原理在充分考虑交通拥堵对污染气体排放影响的基础上建立了城市交通污染气体排放模型.并以上海市为例运用Vensim PLE软件对模型进行仿真,发现交通拥堵对城市交通污染的影响非常显著,当交通负荷大于1.62时,污染物的排放量呈指数增长.最后针对上海市的交通政策对污染气体排放的影响进行仿真分析,提出控制交通污染的合理化建议.     

混合动力公交车能量控制策略的优化模型

针对混合动力公交车在循环工况内功率需求的特点,建立了未来功率需求贝叶斯预测模型;利用2-阶段随机动态规划模型将大规模的随机动态规划问题简化为多个小规模的随机动态规划问题和一个确定型动态规划问题;对于随机动态规划模型的求解,给出了稀疏表示的降维方法,将复杂的泛函极值问题转化为常规的随机动态优化问题,并采用分布估计算法和计算资源最优配置算法的计算机仿真优化算法对随机动态优化问题进行求解;给出了基于查表的在线控制策略,为模型的实际应用进行了有益的探索。     

分布估计算法中适应度函数模型检验及应用

在一种基于马尔可夫网络的分布估计算法中,利用解的适应度函数模型表示变量的概率分布.通过相关系数检验建立了一种衡量适应度函数模型有效性的方法,同时该方法也可以用来确定初始种群规模大小.在二维相关变量结构下,将该方法应用于一种多变量生物动态模型的优化问题,结论表明通过该方法可以选择适当的种群规模,保证适应度函数模型的有效性,并提高算法的优化性能.     

一种非视距环境下基于TOA三维定位的新方法研究

为消除非视距环境对TOA三维定位带来的误差,引入演化博弈模型,以各个测量基站作为博弈局中人,为非视距环境下的TOA三维定位问题建立了一般形式的复制动态模型.研究提出了基于演化博弈的TOA定位算法,通过迭代计算消除非视距误差,获得移动端的位置估计.进一步地,针对基站位置分布明显不均的情况,在演化博弈TOA定位算法的基础上,通过构造虚拟基站和虚拟测量值,提出了基于虚拟基站的三维定位算法.实验对比显示基于演化博弈的TOA定位算法略优于经典定位算法,在基站位置分布明显不均的情况下,基于虚拟基站的三维定位算法效果较明显.     

0-1膨胀几何分布回归模型及其应用

在制造缺陷、专利申请、道路安全和公共卫生等应用领域,经常会出现较多的零观测值和一观测值.采用传统的泊松回归或负二项回归模型往往会过低地估计零观测值和一观测值出现的概率,数据拟合的效果欠佳.文章提出了0-1膨胀几何分布回归模型,巧妙地引入隐变量并进行极大似然估计和贝叶斯估计,基于数据扩充策略分别采用最大期望(EM)算法和Metropolis-Hastings抽样算法对回归参数向量进行估计.在不同的样本容量下进行数值模拟,并对两种估计方法的性能进行评价.研究表明,对于博士研究生发表论文数量的数据集,0-1膨胀几何分布回归模型能够达到更好的拟合效果.     

一个阶为2+\sqrt{6}的Newton改进算法

针对非线性方程求单根问题,提出了一种新的Newton预测-校正格式.通过每步迭代增加计算一个函数值和一阶导数值,使得每步迭代需要估计两个函数值和两个一阶导数值.与标准的Newton算法的二阶收敛速度相比,新算法具有更高阶的收敛速度2+\sqrt{6}.通过测试函数对新算法进行测试, 与相关算法比较,表明算法在迭代次数、运算时间及最优值方面都具有较明显的优势. 最后,将这种新格式推广到多维向量值函数, 采用泰勒公式证明了其收敛性,并给出了两个二维算例来验证其收敛的有效性.     

生长曲线模型的惩罚最小二乘估计

主要考虑了生长曲线模型中的参数矩阵的估计.首先基于Potthoff-Roy变换后的生长曲线模型,采用不同的惩罚函数:Hard Thresholding函数,LASSO,ENET,改进LASSO,SACD给出了参数矩阵的惩罚最小二乘估计.接着对不做变换的生长曲线模型,直接定义其惩罚最小二乘估计,基于Nelder-Mead法给出了估计的数值解算法.最后对提出的参数估计方法进行了数据模拟.结果表明自适应LASSO在估计方面效果比较好.     

一个阶为2+6~(1/2)的Newton改进算法

针对非线性方程求单根问题,提出了一种新的Newton预测-校正格式.通过每步迭代增加计算一个函数值和一阶导数值,使得每步迭代需要估计两个函数值和两个一阶导数值.与标准的Newton算法的二阶收敛速度相比,新算法具有更高阶的收敛速度2+6~(1/2).通过测试函数对新算法进行测试,与相关算法比较,表明算法在迭代次数、运算时间及最优值方面都具有较明显的优势.最后,将这种新格式推广到多维向量值函数,采用泰勒公式证明了其收敛性,并给出了两个二维算例来验证其收敛的有效性.     

A novel hybrid multivariate nonlinear grey model for forecasting the traffic-related emissions

In this paper, we proposed a novel forecasting method using grey system theory for the traffic-related emissions at a national level. In our tests, grey relational analysis was used to identify time lags between input and output variables. We introduced a multivariate nonlinear grey model based on the kernel method to improve the accuracy of traffic-related emissions prediction. By solving a convex optimization problem instead of using an ordinary least squares estimation, the proposed model overcame the limitations of the classic grey forecasting models. A model confidence set test on the realistic results of forecasting traffic-related emissions in European Union member countries showed that the proposed model demonstrated a marked superiority over robust linear regression and support vector regression. Based on the non-methane volatile organic compounds from road transport and the relevant factors of the emission from 2004 to 2016, a more stringent European Union emission reduction commitment to the road transport for each year from 2020 to 2029 was suggested. We also investigated the advantages of the proposed model via the analysis on convergence, robustness, and sensitivity.     

Analysis of traffic flow by the finite element method

A finite elernent methodology is developed for the numerical solution of traffic flow problems encountered in arterial streets. The simple continuum traffic flow model consisting of the equation of continuity and an equilibrium flow-density relationship is adopted. A Galerkin type finite element method is used to formulate the problem in discrete form and the solution is obtained by a step-by-step time integration in conjunction with the Newton-Raphson method. The proposed finite element methodology, which is of the shock capturing type, is applied to flow traffic problems. Two numerical examples illustrate the method and demonstrate its advantages over other analytical or numerical techniques.     

一种基于Q学习的单路口交通信号控制方法

利用Watkins(1989)提出的Q学习算法,基于不同相位的动态最小时间需求,并以相位通行需求时间为研究对象,以动态相位时间差为状态转换控制目标,建立了单路口交通信号控制的一种动态智能控制方法.计算机模拟仿真表明这种控制方法的好的控制效果.     

离散交通流模型的反馈线性化与拥堵控制

在自动化高速公路环境下,提出一种改进的宏观离散交通流模型密度控制方法.利用反馈线性化方法,将宏观离散交通流模型转换为一般容易处理的线性系统模型,简化了密度控制器的设计.利用线性系统中具有输入变换的跟踪反馈控制方法,对线性化后的系统模型设计控制律.通过控制该线性系统的状态变量,间接稳定离散交通流模型中的交通流密度,达到对道路交通流拥堵的控制.同时给出设计方法和步骤,仿真实例说明了方法的实用性.     

交通流模型基于特征投影分解技术的外推降维有限差分格式

利用特征正交分解(proper orthogonal decomposition,简记为POD)技术研究交通流的Aw-Rascle-Zhang(ARZ)模型. 建立一种基于 POD方法维数较低的外推降维有限差分格式, 并用数值例子检验数值计算结果与理论结果相吻合, 进一步表明基于POD方法的外推降维有限差分格式对于求解交通流方程数值解是可行和有效的.     

Solving the logit-based stochastic user equilibrium problem with elastic demand based on the extended traffic network model

This paper proposes a novel extended traffic network model to solve the logit-based stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) problem with elastic demand. In this model, an extended traffic network is established by properly adding dummy nodes and links to the original traffic network. Based on the extended traffic network, the logit-based SUE problem with elastic demand is transformed to the SUE problem with fixed demand. Such problem is then further converted to a linearly constrained convex programming and addressed by a predictor–corrector interior point algorithm with polynomial complexity. A numerical example is provided to compare the proposed model with the method of successive averages (MSA). The numerical results indicate that the proposed model is more efficient and has a better convergence than the MSA.     

Simulating vehicular traffic in a network using dynamic routing

We present a new numerical code which solves the Lighthill – Whitham model, the classic macroscopic model for vehicular traffic flow, in a network with multi-destinations. We use a high-resolution shock-capturing scheme with approximate Riemann solver to solve the partial differential equations of the Lighthill – Whitham theory. These schemes are very efficient, robust and moreover well adapted to simulations of traffic flows. We develop a theory of dynamic routing including a procedure for traffic flow assignment at junctions which reproduces the correct propagation of irregularities and ensures at the same time conservation of the number of vehicles.     

Joint optimization traffic signal control for an urban arterial road

This paper considers the optimal traffic signal setting for an urban arterial road. By introducing the concepts of synchronization rate and non-synchronization degree, a mathematical model is constructed and an optimization problem is posed. Then, a new iterative algorithm is developed to solve this optimal traffic control signal setting problem. Convergence properties for this iterative algorithm are established. Finally, a numerical example is solved to illustrate the effectiveness of the method.     

Spatial distribution multimedia fate model: Numerical aspects and ability for spatial analysis

A spatial distribution multimedia fate model is proposed for the rigorous simulation of the environmental multimedia fate of hazardous chemicals emitted from a variety of sources. To solve the relevant equation, we introduce an explicit finite difference method applied to uniform grids. We assessed the numerical properties of the model, including stability and accuracy. A new dimensionless number (multimedia transport number) is proposed for determining the numerical stability of the unsteady-state method. The model was verified by comparison with analytical solutions for the transport of non-conservative substances in two-phase open-channel flow. The spatial resolution of the spatial distribution model was tested via a comparison with a general multimedia fate model in a practical application related to toluene emissions in Seoul, South Korea.     

多等级交通流LWR模型中的非线性波描述与WENO数值逼近

证明了交通流多等级LWR(Lighthill-Whitham-Richards)模型的双曲性质,并根据交通流的特征给出关于其非线性波的描述,主要包括车流通过激波和稀疏波时密度和速度的单调性变化．由于方程组没有显式的特征分解,所以引入具有高分辨和高精度的WENO(weighted essentially non~oscillatory)格式作数值模拟,得到与理论描述完全一致的数值结果．