决策依赖不确定条件下基于复合实物期权估值的工程系统投资决策研究

不确定性是复杂工程系统的内在属性,在决策依赖不确定条件下对工程系统的投资决策需考虑不确定性与决策过程之间的交互作用,使得投资决策问题的求解非常困难.提出了决策依赖不确定条件下复合实物期权估值的最小二乘模拟算法,方法较好地解决了在决策依赖不确定条件下由于不同期权价值相互耦合所带来的计算复杂性,进一步拓展了最小二乘模拟算法在期权估值中的应用,基于该方法,可以比较方便地解决决策依赖不确定条件下工程系统投资决策问题.     

基于模糊影响图与D-S证据理论的多属性群决策方法

针对影响因素复杂的总体评价问题,提出了一种多属性群决策方法。该方法通过模糊影响图构建多层决策模型,利用模糊关系矩阵传递专家的意见,利用证据理论集结专家意见。该决策方法利用属性间客观存在的模糊关系进行决策,不需要确定决策属性的权重。实例分析表明,本方法可行,有利于降低决策信息的不确定程度。     

页岩气区块优选的模糊动态多属性决策模型研究

页岩气作为目前最现实的可替代能源倍受各国政府和企业的高度关注。针对信息不确定下页岩气区块优选的动态多属性决策难题,在初步估测不同阶段地质资源禀赋、基础设施建设投资以及环境保护要求等不确定信息下,以优选具有商业化价值开发的页岩气目标区块为重点研究对象,从解决不同区块的投资优先次序入手,运用多属性决策、模糊优化决策和动态决策优化的方法理论,通过剖析页岩气区块优选决策过程及其复杂性特征,将页岩气区块投资优选和排序问题进行形式化描述,提出一种探索解决这种模糊动态多属性决策问题的方法,并应用到具体的页岩气区块优选问题中。本项研究不仅有助于深化不确定条件下动态多属性决策理论的研究,还为解决页岩气区块优选这一投资决策难题提供新的思路和方法。     

多因素指派模型全局优化问题研究

基于多因素资源优化分配问题的不确定性,建立基于区间数型下的不确定多因素指派模型,给出模型建立的理论依据与全局优化算法,拓展区间数型多因素指派模型,解决了不确定条件下多因素资源优化分配问题.考虑多因素影响,基于任务完成效率,以5类任务多因素分配问题为例,获得了指派模型全局优化的解.为不确定条件下资源优化分配问题的研究拓宽了决策途径.     

基于偏差的不确定型多属性决策的综合集成方法

对不确定型条件下的多属性决策问题,规范化后的区间数能消除属性值之间量纲的差异,建立了相离度偏差、中间值偏差和理想方案偏差计算公式,构建了以总偏差平方和为目标函数的综合集成优化模型,求解出各属性的客观权重,提出了一种客观属性权重的可能度法,为不确定型多属性决策提供了一种简单实用的可靠方法.最后通过一个算例说明了该方法的实用性和有效性.     

不确定性视角下考虑“双预期”的动态多属性决策方法

针对不确定环境下的多阶段、多属性决策问题,文章提出了一种不确定视角下考虑双预期目标的动态多属性决策方法.为全方位评估决策对象,从时间维度研究对象的动态发展特征,综合横向对比和纵向发展两个方面,构建了“差异化”发展状态下针对区间数的双重预期设置方法;结合决策者的心理特征、区间分布状态以及信息不确定度的影响作用,基于前景理论进行信息融合及排序.最后,以应用型高校产教融合绩效评估问题为案例背景,通过分析和方法比较验证所提方法的实用性和合理性.     

多粒度语言信息的交互式多属性群决策方法及应用

针对目前多阶段交互式决策的研究多是基于点值的缺陷,以及大多数研究忽视了从多个属性对方案进行评价等不足,本文探讨了一种基于多粒度语言信息的交互式多属性群决策方法。首先基于不确定语言变量提出了多粒度语言信息的转换函数,并在给出若干假设的前提下描述了交互式多属性群决策的过程,然后提出了交互影响因子来度量决策者的“话语权”,通过稳定性指标探讨交互终止条件;接着在不确定语言变量的加权算术平均(ULWA)算子和诱导多阶段交互加权算子(I-UOWA和I-UOWGA)的基础上对偏好信息进行集结,再提出优势可能度法对方案排序。最后给出了一个物流供应商选择的案例研究。     

一种基于相似度比较的模糊属性约简方法

属性约简是粗糙集理论的重要研究内容,本文基于模糊信息系统,一方面,通过模糊相似关系定义了条件相似度以及决策相似度,建立了关于条件相似度与决策相似度的相对比较矩阵,给出了属性约简集的新定义;另一方面,结合知识的粒度、分辨度、关联度确定了条件属性对决策属性的重要度,由此,提出了一种基于相似度比较的模糊属性约简方法。     

基于泛性模糊数的VIKOR方法研究

建立了一种泛性模糊数可比较的度量,对决策信息通常为泛性模糊数的决策问题进行加工和扩展,提出了基于泛性模糊数不确定信息的VIKOR决策方法,实现了属性为泛性模糊数的多属性群决策及信息融合的目的.     

不确定区间隶属度语言变量及其应用

基于不确定语言变量和区间模糊数,提出了不确定区间隶属度语言变量的概念,定义了不确定区间隶属度语言变量的运算规则、大小比较方法,给出了不确定区间隶属度语言变量的加权算术平均算子、加权几何平均算子及其相应性质,并将这些算子应用于属性权重确知且属性值以不确定区间隶属度语言变量形式给出的不确定多属性群决策问题中,通过示例验证了基于不确定区间隶属度语言变量信息的多属性群决策方法的有效性和可行性。     

THE QUALITATIVE CONTENT OF RENEWABLE RESOURCE MODELS

This paper analyzes the extent to which standard dynamic renewable resource models possess refutable implications. Both the steady state comparative static and local comparative dynamic properties of the standard model are studied. A unified framework is developed which enables one to analyze the qualitative properties of any standard renewable resource model. This is achieved by explicitly linking the local stability, steady state comparative static, and local comparative dynamic properties of the model.     

多指标决策的较多最优方案与较多非劣方案

本文介绍了由比较因素决定的较多序与方案的比较因子，并在较多序的基础上定义了较多最优方案与非劣方案．同时对其存在性、控制结构集、几何条件、局部较多最优方案与非劣方案及其存在性、算法等进行了讨论．     

Prioritization of e-learning forms: a multicriteria methodology

Strategic planning of e-learning implementation includes decision making about the most suitable form of implementing e-learning on different levels in an institution. Decision making about e-learning implementation has been covered as consisting of four phases: (1) intelligence, (2) design, (3) choice and (4) implementation. During the Intelligence phase we have precisely identified our central decision problem and have conducted situation analysis. In the Design phase we have developed alternatives and established criteria and subcriteria. The questionnaire about the importance of the advantages and goals of e-learning implementation and about criteria and subcriteria significant for decision making was created. Essential for the survey was use of Croatian e-learning experts that are familiar with higher education (HE) environment. Further, we connected these findings with the results of the factor analysis which was performed on the survey. The results of the factor analysis have served as input in the multicriteria decision model (AHP) that we have developed in the Choice phase. In the implementation phase we have solved the problem of prioritisation of e-learning options with the help of multi-criteria modelling in the process of group decision making. In this article, firstly we will present and analyze the results of the survey. Secondly, the outputs of factor analysis will be stated and compared with the model used in the questionnaire. Finally, the structure of AHP model will be given and the results of the quantitative evaluation of the model will be presented.     

Optimal control of locusts in subsistence farming areas

Locust swarms hit subsistence-staple-crop-growing households at random and are not privately controllable. An aerial-spraying optimal control model that supports the said households’ livelihood at least expected cost is therefore developed. The qualitative properties of the model are analysed under economically plausible but mild assumptions. The steady state comparative statics reveal that the locust swarm size and the probability of a household’s crop being destroyed by a swarm decrease with the number of households, yield per household, and the staple crop’s replacement price, and increase with the marginal cost of spraying and the planner’s discount rate. A local comparative dynamics analysis is also conducted, as it provides the necessary economic intuition behind other ostensibly anomalous steady-state comparative statics results.     

An envelope theorem and some applications to discounted Markov decision processes

In this paper, an Envelope Theorem (ET) will be established for optimization problems on Euclidean spaces. In general, the Envelope Theorems permit analyzing an optimization problem and giving the solution by means of differentiability techniques. The ET will be presented in two versions. One of them uses concavity assumptions, whereas the other one does not require such kind of assumptions. Thereafter, the ET established will be applied to the Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) on Euclidean spaces, discounted and with infinite horizon. As the first application, several examples (including some economic models) of discounted MDPs for which the et allows to determine the value iteration functions will be presented. This will permit to obtain the corresponding optimal value functions and the optimal policies. As the second application of the ET, it will be proved that under differentiability conditions in the transition law, in the reward function, and the noise of the system, the value function and the optimal policy of the problem are differentiable with respect to the state of the system. Besides, various examples to illustrate these differentiability conditions will be provided. This work was partially supported by Benemérita Universidad Aut ónoma de Puebla (BUAP) under grant VIEP-BUAP 38/EXC/06-G, by Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT), and by Evaluation-orientation de la COopération Scientifique (ECOS) under grant CONACyT-ECOS M06-M01.     

One-step estimation for varying coefficient models

A one-step method is proposed to estimate the unknown functions in the varying coefficient models, in which the unknown functions admit different degrees of smoothness. In this method polynomials of different orders are used to approximate unknown functions with different degrees of smoothness. As only one minimization operation is employed, the required computation burden is much less than that required by the existing two-step estimation method. It is shown that the one-step estimators also achieve the optimal convergence rate. Moreover this property is obtained under conditions milder than that imposed in the two-step estimation method. More importantly, as only one minimization operation is employed, the full asymptotic properties, not only the asymptotic bias and variance, but also the asymptotic distributions of the estimators can be derived. The asymptotic distribution results will play a key role for making statistical inference.     

基于多指标博弈的核电施工企业安全投入研究

核电的发展离不开安全的保障,核电建设的快速发展使得核电建筑施工企业在市场竞争和项目施工两个方面面临安全投入策略的选择问题,基于此,根据多指标博弈理论构建了两个博弈模型,分别讨论了竞争条件下和施工监管条件下企业安全投入的策略选择,研究结果表明合理的安全投入将会使企业在竞争中占据优势地位,同时在施工阶段企业需要根据监管方的策略变化选择与之适合的安全投入策略,从而实现自身效用最大化的目的。     

Computation strategies of orthogonal image moments: A comparative study

This paper discusses possible computation schemes that have been introduced in the past and cope with the efficient computation of the orthogonal image moments. An exhaustive comparative study of these alternatives is performed in order to investigate the conditions under which each scheme ensures high computation rates, for several test images. The present study aims to discover the properties and the behaviour of the different methodologies and it serves as a reference point in the field of moment’s computation. Some useful conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability and the usefulness of the computation strategies in comparison and efficient hybrid methods are proposed to better utilize their advantages.     

Dynamical systems and variational inequalities

The variational inequality problem has been utilized to formulate and study a plethora of competitive equilibrium problems in different disciplines, ranging from oligopolistic market equilibrium problems to traffic network equilibrium problems. In this paper we consider for a given variational inequality a naturally related ordinary differential equation. The ordinary differential equations that arise are nonstandard because of discontinuities that appear in the dynamics. These discontinuities are due to the constraints associated with the feasible region of the variational inequality problem. The goals of the paper are two-fold. The first goal is to demonstrate that although non-standard, many of the important quantitative and qualitative properties of ordinary differential equations that hold under the standard conditions, such as Lipschitz continuity type conditions, apply here as well. This is important from the point of view of modeling, since it suggests (at least under some appropriate conditions) that these ordinary differential equations may serve as dynamical models. The second goal is to prove convergence for a class of numerical schemes designed to approximate solutions to a given variational inequality. This is done by exploiting the equivalence between the stationary points of the associated ordinary differential equation and the solutions of the variational inequality problem. It can be expected that the techniques described in this paper will be useful for more elaborate dynamical models, such as stochastic models, and that the connection between such dynamical models and the solutions to the variational inequalities will provide a deeper understanding of equilibrium problems.     

国债招标拍卖的最优机制:数量与价格歧视

过去已有相当多的文献讨论国债拍卖,米勒和弗雷德曼认为统一价格比歧视价格拍卖有比较优势.研究国债拍卖最优分配方式的选择问题,采用最优机制设计方法分析国债拍卖活动,内生地得到最优拍卖机制.然而结果表明,如果使用价格歧视及数量歧视(定量分配),那么政府的销售收益会得到改善,这是一个最优拍卖机制,不同于米勒和弗雷德曼的观点.