共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 203 毫秒
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突发事件发生后,需要启动相应的应急预案来减少突发事件所带来的损失。根据灾害后果的不同,所启动的可能是一个预案,更可能是多个预案。为了使得启动的多个预案能够有效衔接,共同起到一个预案的作用,通过应急响应流程分析,首先,从基础概念出发对应急预案体系各要素的概念进行界定,理清各要素之间的相互关系,构建预案体系概念模型。其次,基于概念模型的要素和结构,采用网络的方法对预案体系进行抽象和分析,提出了预案体系的层次网络模型。最后给出了多预案模型整合流程和建模实例。研究结果表明,该模型不仅可以实现基于预案内容特征的流程的纵向整合,而且可以实现多个预案的横向整合,整合后的预案体系各类要素更完整,元素之间的关系更紧密,有效提高了预案体系的完备性,是实现预案修订以及有效性评估的基础。 相似文献
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考虑到实际租赁市场中设备的租赁和购买价格随着时间推移持续上涨的特征,研究了通货膨胀市场中的租赁问题在有利率情形下的在线竞争策略,并建立了相应的概率预期的风险补偿模型。首先运用在线算法和竞争分析理论设计了该问题的最优竞争策略,并给出最优竞争比。接着,在风险补偿竞争分析框架下,进一步讨论该问题,投资者可以控制风险,根据自己不同的风险容忍度和未来预期选择补偿最大的租赁策略;也可以根据给定的补偿收益约束选择风险最小的策略。最后通过数值分析,验证了相关结论的正确性,也表明了基于概率预期的风险补偿策略大大改善了该租赁问题的竞争比性能。 相似文献
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针对重大突发事件应急决策大群体成员的风险偏好复杂难测问题,提出了一种新的基于决策者风险偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策方法。首先专家群体对突发事件进行快速响应,生成若干应急预案及其风险属性信息;其次,社会公众通过网络等渠道参与到应急决策中来并形成决策大群体,给出不同预案的偏好值;然后,利用证据推理算法得出公众对各预案的风险效用值,将预案风险效用值与预案偏好值加权组合,得到各个预案的大群体决策者的风险偏好值;最后,基于风险偏好值,利用大数据分析技术对大群体的风险偏好进行聚类识别,从中筛选出风险中立者组成新的应急决策群体,再次聚类得出应急决策群体的成员组成结构,以此为基础计算决策者权重和应急预案的最终效用值,得应急预案排序结果。最后通过算例分析验证了方法的有效性和可行性。 相似文献
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基于战略应急库存与实物期权组合策略,设计了树形供应链中断风险应急模型,并通过求解模型得到系统最优策略.应急模型既考虑了风险防范与应急供应所引发的成本,同时考虑了供应链系统中断导致的损失收益.最后进行了仿真分析,结果表明应急模型能够显著降低树形供应链系统的中断风险成本与系统中断时间. 相似文献
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在多级树形供应链网络环境下,基于实物期权策略并引入中断风险成本,建立了树形供应链应对中断风险的保护与应急模型,通过求解模型得到最优策略并进行了数值仿真分析.仿真结果表明该模型能够显著降低树形供应链系统的中断风险成本与系统中断时间,从而提高供应网络的鲁棒性. 相似文献
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应急预案的优劣关系到突发事件的处理效果,要判断应急预案的优劣则需要对应急预案进行评估.基于事件的流程构建突发事件应急预案评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各级指标权重,基于模糊-证据理论,将专家评语转化为mass函数,并综合专家评价信息合成为指标mass函数.之后根据权重修正mass函数,建立完整的突发事件应急预案评价模型.最后,结合河南省漯河市突发火灾事件的数据进行了实证研究,得到了满意的结果. 相似文献
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反向拍卖的一种在线定价策略及竞争分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文讨论了网络环境下从众多投标的供应商那里选择一家供应商来购进所需商品的反向拍卖,提出了一种考虑了买家起始价格和最高忍耐价格的在线定价策略,该在线定价策略利用了市场的价格信息,克服了由单一定价造成的完不成采购任务或不必要的成本浪费等缺陷,对该在线定价策略进行了竞争分析并得到了最优的竞争比。最后,通过实例说明本文提出的在线定价策略的可操作性。 相似文献
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在以客户关系为竞争导向的服务经济时代,有效的收入管理必须深入的结合客户关系管理策略.利用赋值马尔科夫过程方案决策的基本理论构建起了基于收入管理的CRM策略优化方案决策的随机模型,并对该模型方法进行了实证应用.结果表明通过应用该模型方法进行CRM策略的优化选择后,企业在加强客户关系承诺的同时能有效的提升其收入管理水平.讨论了研究结论对企业管理实践的意义. 相似文献
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In this paper, we report on our recent efforts concerning the design of parallel linear multigrid algorithms for the acceleration
of 3-dimensional compressible flow calculations. The multigrid strategy adopted in this study relies on a volume agglomeration
principle for the construction of the coarse grids starting from a fine discretization of the computational domain. In the
past, this strategy has mainly been studied in the 2-dimensional case for the solution of the Euler equations (see Lallemand
et al. [6]), the laminar Navier–Stokes equations (see Mavriplis and Venkatakrishnan [12]) and the turbulent Navier–Stokes
equations (see Carré [1], Mavriplis [10] and Francescatto and Dervieux [4]). A first extension to the 3-dimensional case is
presented by Mavriplis and Venkatakrishnan in [13] and more recently in Mavriplis and Pirzadeh [11]. The main contribution
of the present work is twofold: on the one hand, we demonstrate the successful extension and application of the multigrid
by a volume agglomeration principle to the acceleration of complex 3-dimensional flow calculations on unstructured tetrahedral
meshes and, on the other hand, we enhance further the efficiency of the methodology through its adaptation to parallel architectures.
Moreover, a nontrivial aspect of this work is that the corresponding software developments are taking place in an existing
industrial flow solver.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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Elena Pervukhina Jean-Francois Emmenegger Victoria Golikova Kostiantyn Osipov 《Optimization》2014,63(1):93-108
This paper proposes to forecast indicators of the Ukrainian cargo transport system, taking into account their relations with macroeconomic indicators. Increased forecast accuracy at a priori information uncertainty is attained through an optimization technique, starting with a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model of observed multiple time series, its state space representation and subsequent adaptive filtering. The adaptive filter, earlier proposed by the authors, minimizes forecasting errors. Under an optimization criterion, the information divergence of Kullback–Leibler between probability distributions of real values and their estimations is established. The main advantage of the proposed technique is connected with the opportunity to estimate future values of multiple time series even in presence of structural breaks (describing the changes of the status ‘before crisis’ / ‘after crisis’). The observations are available from 2003:1–2011:12, the analysis is performed for the period 2003:1–2011:9. In-sample forecasting of multiple time series of cargo volumes transferred by different transport modes and two macro indicators is compared with the forecast based on a VAR model. In-sample forecast is realized for the last three months 2011:10–2011:12. 相似文献
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社会化媒体的普及改变了信息传播模式,使得产品伤害危机的演化发生了变化。针对社会化媒体环境下不可辩解型产品伤害危机构建演化博弈模型,并引入前景理论构建收益矩阵,对社会化媒体环境下不可辩解型产品伤害危机的演化稳定策略进行分析,通过数值仿真发现社会化媒体环境下不可辩解型产品伤害危机演化中存在:损失规避态度的变化对企业-消费者利益损失的影响存在非对称性现象;合理的政府协调补偿会引导企业和消费者进行策略调整,从而有利于危机的快速平息;外界干预对企业-消费者责任性的影响存在非对称性现象,舆论等干预会对企业行为起到责任约束作用。 相似文献
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当前, 零售商的渠道策略从以往各自为政的经营模式转向于关注渠道整合程度。越来越多的零售商开始通过为搜索产品中的线上消费者提供电子优惠券, 以此吸引其转移到线下渠道购买产品。本文基于对“优衣库”渠道整合案例的梳理, 引入心理账户收入幻觉, 建立了不同渠道策略下两个零售商之间的Hotelling模型。研究发现电子优惠券能够实现消费者从线上向线下渠道的转移, 零售商在一定条件下能够借此扩大市场规模并获利。此外, 优惠券策略受消费者到店产生的额外购买给零售商带来的收益的影响。同时, 消费者心理账户形成的收入幻觉、消费者对线上渠道的偏好异质性也影响优惠券策略。 相似文献
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Karl Schneeberger Karl F. Doerner Andrea Kurz Michael Schilde 《Central European Journal of Operations Research》2016,24(1):1-27
This article deals with the relocation of ambulance vehicles from their origin location (i.e., position before a crisis occurs) to a crisis area and to undercovered areas (i.e., no ambulance vehicle is available for a potential emergency in a given region). Support for a crisis area can lead to insufficient coverage of other emergency patients in other regions, so decision makers need assistance with useful relocation information, including the relocation of vehicles to the crisis area and to undercovered areas. As optimization criteria, this study considers two objectives: undercoverage (i.e., unsupported demand) and the total time needed to get to the crisis area with all vehicles. A proposed model aims to minimize the time required for the vehicle relocation process and avoid relocation mistakes (e.g., sending a vehicle to support the crisis area when it would be better to leave it at its current location). Devising the relocation plan consists of three phases. First, a location model allocates all available vehicles to potential vehicle locations (positioning vehicles before the crisis occurs). Second, the same location model allocates the remaining vehicles in the case of a crisis (all vehicles not needed to manage the crisis). Third, the relocation model (phase three) moves vehicles from their position before the crisis occurs (phase one) to their position during the crisis (phase two). 相似文献